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Odds Don't Change When Jackpot Goes UP

Topic closed. 60 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Stack47.

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NY
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Posted: December 8, 2006, 2:25 pm - IP Logged


KY Floyd

"You've mentioned dice often enough, maybe that will make sense to you.  Suppose we're playing a game that requires you to roll a 6 to win. If you roll one die and I roll two dice, do I have twice as much chAnce of rolling a 6?"

One die was a no roll in any joint I ever worked in. With dice a six can only be made 2-4, 5-1, or 3-3, there is no 6-0. There is no 6-0 and there is no cutting the odds in half with another ticket. 

 

noahproblem

re:42  - at least not to the Japanese!

The world of Japanese superstition.

 Do you panic after breaking a mirror because it may mean seven years'bad luck? Do you avoid letting a black cat cross your path? Does the number 13 make you uncomfortable? Do you scold your children when they open an umbrella in the house? When you knock over a salt shaker do you throw a pinch of salt over your left shoulder? Perhaps you keep a rabbit's foot or a "lucky" coin in your pocket or handbag. And, I'm sure you never walk under a ladder. Any Japanese who saw such reactions would probably laugh and call you a superstitious, unscientific, old-fashioned person. Yet the same Japanese might turn around and tell you with teh sincerest conviction that numbers 42 should be avoided at any cost, that badgers are mischievous, evil, little wrong-doers, that dead spirits are sometimes embodied in female cats, that women ghosts haunt txi-cabs, and that every rock, tree, mountain, river and even grain of sand has a spirit

More here:
http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/131385/569740?q=japanese


You've misunderstood. I'm only trying to demonstrate a simple point about how probability works. Which games are played in which casino doesn't matter. Probability existed, and worked the same was it does today, long before people invented games of chance.

Let's try again. The game is strictly educational. There is no cost for playing and there is no monetary prize for winning. The object of the game is to roll dice and get a die that lands with a 6 showing. Not a combination that totals 6, just a 6. 6 dots, all on the same face, in two parallel rows of 3. That's why you can play the game with only one die. Hopefully that's clear enough that anyone who has ever seen a die should understand how to play. 

You roll a single die. You win if that die lands showing a 6.

I roll two dice. Why? Because the rules allow me to roll as many times as I want. I win if the first die shows a 6, I win if he second die shows a 6, and I win (twice) if both dice show a 6.

Am I twice as likely to get a 6 by rolling two dice? 

    paurths's avatar - underground
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    Posted: December 8, 2006, 3:13 pm - IP Logged


    You've misunderstood. I'm only trying to demonstrate a simple point about how probability works. Which games are played in which casino doesn't matter. Probability existed, and worked the same was it does today, long before people invented games of chance.

    Let's try again. The game is strictly educational. There is no cost for playing and there is no monetary prize for winning. The object of the game is to roll dice and get a die that lands with a 6 showing. Not a combination that totals 6, just a 6. 6 dots, all on the same face, in two parallel rows of 3. That's why you can play the game with only one die. Hopefully that's clear enough that anyone who has ever seen a die should understand how to play. 

    You roll a single die. You win if that die lands showing a 6.

    I roll two dice. Why? Because the rules allow me to roll as many times as I want. I win if the first die shows a 6, I win if he second die shows a 6, and I win (twice) if both dice show a 6.

    Am I twice as likely to get a 6 by rolling two dice? 

    So are you saying that if you were to have 6 go's to roll the dice you will have a 6 for sure?

    First roll; you have 1 in 6
    Second roll: you have 1 in 6

    The difference is that it is more likely that you will roll a 6 because of your 2 shots at it, in comparison to a person that will roll it only once.

    lasas3

    An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

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      Posted: December 9, 2006, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

      So are you saying that if you were to have 6 go's to roll the dice you will have a 6 for sure?

      First roll; you have 1 in 6
      Second roll: you have 1 in 6

      The difference is that it is more likely that you will roll a 6 because of your 2 shots at it, in comparison to a person that will roll it only once.


      I didn't say anything about the probability of a particular outcome.

      If you buy lottery tickets, and you've got a lick of sense, each ticket will have a different number because you get to choose the numbers, so if you buy a ticket for all of the possibilities you are guaranteed to have awinning ticket.The results of rolling dice will essentially be random, so there is no guarantee.

        MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

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        Posted: December 10, 2006, 7:08 am - IP Logged

        If your lottery offer 14,000,000 chances of winning with one ticket, there's still 13,999,999 chances you won't win. And 13,999,998 chances of losing if you buy two tickets.

        People who are not into statistics too much think they have increased their chance of winning from 1/14,000,000 to 2/14,000,000 (or 1/7,000,000) when buying two tickets.

        Coin Toss is most accurate I would say.

        Ordinary algebra doesn't work on the lotteries to describe how easy or hard it is to win.

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          Posted: December 10, 2006, 6:05 pm - IP Logged


          BobP

           I honestly am not the one yanking anyone's chain here.

           From your example:

          "The enemy has 100,000 troops and you are alone scouting, if you attack the odds are 1in 100,000 or 1 versus 100,000.

          Your buddy shows up, the odds are now 2vs100,000 or 1in 50,000 because each of your share to take on is half the 100,000."

          You're telling us that if a game had 100,000 to 1 odds, when your buddy (the second dollar) showed up you would have "double the coverage".  Once again, nope..... 

          It's actually more, in the case of lotto, like a second sniper shows up and each is covering one opponent.

          If the object is that a sniper hits one target with one shot then a second sniper would in fact double their chances of hitting the target. 

          But how can the odds change to 1 in 50,000 when the second sniper would still have 99,999 targets to choose from?

          How does adding a second sniper eliminate 49,999 possible targets?

            Thoth's avatar - binary
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            Posted: December 10, 2006, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

            Dice Rolling:

            Supposing the the objective is to roll a six.  While rolling one die the odds are 1 in 6.  The chance or probability is 1÷6=0.16666...

            Does rolling 2 dice at once double the chance that you will get a six?

            There are 6x6=36 possible outcomes, of those 36 there 5x5 that will not cointain any sixes at all.  The inverse of that figure is that there are 36-25=11 outcomes of the two combined dice that contain at least one six.

            The probability is 11/36=0.30555... So does the chance double when rolling two dice?  Not technically—or at least not in full, but its pretty close.  The number 0.16666... doubled is .333 (33.3%) or 1/3, rolling the two dice gives you a slightly lower probability of .30555, which is about 30.6%

            Lots of people think that the chance to see a specific digit in position-one OR position-two (in pick 3/4) is 20% because they have two seperate 10% chances occurring.  The actual "chance" is 19%, not 20% (but still close).  The chance of a specific digit being drawn in any of the three Pick 3 positions is not actually 30%, but rather 27.1%.

            Back to the dice rolling game, suppose that you had to guess which face a rolling die would land upon.  Guessing two different faces (lets say the 5 and 6) would double your chances in this situation.  Your "odds" would be 2 in 6 or 4:2, however you want to look at it, but you can also say the "chance" is 1/3 or the probability is .333...

            ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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              Posted: December 10, 2006, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

              Wintariofan: It surprises me that some people believe the odds of winning a lottery go up when the jackpot gets bigger. 

               

              I believe some of the logic behind only playing when the jackpot is higher is based on more randomly generated quick pick combinations because of the larger number of tickets sold.  They are assuming the winning ticket will be sold somewhere so they have better odds of it being sold to them. 

               

              Wintariofan: If you're smart (grin), you will realize the odds of winning any prize is the same whether the jackpot is $2 million or $35 Million. 

               

              Maybe they are smarter then you think because they realize betting a buck on a 14 million to 1 longshot should return at least a $14 million payoff.

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                Posted: December 10, 2006, 10:17 pm - IP Logged


                Stack47

                "Maybe they are smarter then you think because they realize betting a buck on a 14 million to 1 longshot should return at least a $14 million payoff."

                _________________ 

                 Assuming a solo hit, granted, most hits are solo, but in 'things lotto' you can never assume a solo hit.

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                  Posted: December 11, 2006, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                  If your lottery offer 14,000,000 chances of winning with one ticket, there's still 13,999,999 chances you won't win. And 13,999,998 chances of losing if you buy two tickets.

                  People who are not into statistics too much think they have increased their chance of winning from 1/14,000,000 to 2/14,000,000 (or 1/7,000,000) when buying two tickets.

                  Coin Toss is most accurate I would say.

                  Ordinary algebra doesn't work on the lotteries to describe how easy or hard it is to win.


                  "Ordinary algebra doesn't work on the lotteries to describe how easy or hard it is to win."

                  I've never heard that before. Perhaps you could explain it in more detail? Is there some sort of special "lottery algebra" we should be using, and if so, just when should we use it?

                  Suppose I had a really big sock drawer, with 14 million socks in it.  If I was blindfolded and tried to pull out the only red sock, would the probability of that be figured using lottery algebra or regular algebra?  Would it matter whether or not my wife bet me $1 that I wouldn't pick the red sock?

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                    Posted: December 11, 2006, 1:46 am - IP Logged

                    Dice Rolling:

                    Supposing the the objective is to roll a six.  While rolling one die the odds are 1 in 6.  The chance or probability is 1÷6=0.16666...

                    Does rolling 2 dice at once double the chance that you will get a six?

                    There are 6x6=36 possible outcomes, of those 36 there 5x5 that will not cointain any sixes at all.  The inverse of that figure is that there are 36-25=11 outcomes of the two combined dice that contain at least one six.

                    The probability is 11/36=0.30555... So does the chance double when rolling two dice?  Not technically—or at least not in full, but its pretty close.  The number 0.16666... doubled is .333 (33.3%) or 1/3, rolling the two dice gives you a slightly lower probability of .30555, which is about 30.6%

                    Lots of people think that the chance to see a specific digit in position-one OR position-two (in pick 3/4) is 20% because they have two seperate 10% chances occurring.  The actual "chance" is 19%, not 20% (but still close).  The chance of a specific digit being drawn in any of the three Pick 3 positions is not actually 30%, but rather 27.1%.

                    Back to the dice rolling game, suppose that you had to guess which face a rolling die would land upon.  Guessing two different faces (lets say the 5 and 6) would double your chances in this situation.  Your "odds" would be 2 in 6 or 4:2, however you want to look at it, but you can also say the "chance" is 1/3 or the probability is .333...

                    Some of the people here can't understand it when it's really simple, so why confuse them even more? If you were able to place the dice with  whichever face you chose showing and hope one matched a random roll of a die then you would exactly double your odds by using two dice instead of one. That's the real analogy for multiple tickets, where you'd  presumably buy tickets with different numbers.  With the number of possibilities in lottery games, the difference between two tickets with different numbers and two tickets chosen randomly is insignificnat

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                      Posted: December 11, 2006, 1:53 am - IP Logged

                      BobP wrote:

                      A lot of what you read is dependent on phraseology, how the question is asked and answered. 

                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      That pretty well sums it up. This has been discussed ad nauseum on these boards. It mostly amounts to a lot of people talking past one another because they're all asking and answering different questions in different terms.

                      Some people understand odds and probabilities; some people don't. I've never seen anyone's mind changed in these debates.

                      Buy your ticket(s). Enjoy playing. Win or lose.

                      Puke

                      I was hoping against hope that this time it would turn out differently.

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                        Posted: December 11, 2006, 2:28 am - IP Logged

                        Wintariofan: It surprises me that some people believe the odds of winning a lottery go up when the jackpot gets bigger. 

                         

                        I believe some of the logic behind only playing when the jackpot is higher is based on more randomly generated quick pick combinations because of the larger number of tickets sold.  They are assuming the winning ticket will be sold somewhere so they have better odds of it being sold to them. 

                         

                        Wintariofan: If you're smart (grin), you will realize the odds of winning any prize is the same whether the jackpot is $2 million or $35 Million. 

                         

                        Maybe they are smarter then you think because they realize betting a buck on a 14 million to 1 longshot should return at least a $14 million payoff.

                        Although I agree the odds don't change when the jackpot increases, I like what you wrote here.  I play whether the Florida Lotto is $3M or $20M, because I know I have very little chance of winning in either case!  However, as the jackpot rolls and rolls, it certainly makes sense that many people figure someone will eventually hit it.  I still think it's silly that some people only play when a jackpot is huge, but spending my money on a jackpot game is silly to begin with. So even though in the world of logic and mathematics both your statements aren't rational, in a way they both make a lot of sense. (although this post of mine probably doesn't!)

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                          Posted: December 11, 2006, 3:01 am - IP Logged

                          Wow, I really opened a can of worms on this one.  Disapprove  Let me ramble...lol   

                          All I am saying is that people think their odds of winning change when they buy a ticket once the jackpot is rolled-over.  At that point, if you are so fortunate to win , then you might share with many.    But does it matter at that point...?    When you look at  $30 million and there's 6 winners, you still are taking home 5 million.  I wouldn't scoff at that at all.   

                          Now being in Canada lotteries are tax-free, so you would get the full-amount advertised.  No taxes.  Not sure if you knew that, but our jackpots never get to $75 million or hundreds of millions as the jackpot is advertised as the 50 percent (in the case of 6-49) of what was taken in, after the smaller prize pool wins are collected.  I can understand from the U-S point of view that the government steps in and takes most of it in taxes.  So in that case,  it would be shameful to have multiple winners. 

                          On a side note....I have sat in on the Lotto 6-49 lottery draw and see the auditors writing down total sales from all the provinces usually in the neighbourhood of $55-70 million dollars.  Once its tallied up, the draw conducted, and the numbers put through the central computer system, I figure about 20 percent is roughly pumped into the main jackpot and the rest is put into the smaller prize pool.     Once the jackpot reaches $29 million here, that 20 percent goes to 40 percent to allow the jackpot to grow larger.   

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                            Posted: December 11, 2006, 3:43 am - IP Logged

                            By the way, I totally agree with Cointoss...in the case of the troops, you still have 99,996 men against you.  That is like you having 4 ticket combinations and having 99,996 others that could still come up when the draw is over.  It's really simple math. 

                            In the case of the PICK 3 (straight play) scenario earlier, it's not 1 in 500 after buying a second ticket.  There's still 998 other possiblitlies.     

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                              Posted: December 11, 2006, 7:54 pm - IP Logged


                              Stack47

                              "Maybe they are smarter then you think because they realize betting a buck on a 14 million to 1 longshot should return at least a $14 million payoff."

                              _________________ 

                               Assuming a solo hit, granted, most hits are solo, but in 'things lotto' you can never assume a solo hit.

                              Coin,

                              Because we don’t know the exact payoff in Lotto games, it’s impossible to determine the true odds.   

                              Saying they are getting more for their buck by waiting until the payoff equals the game odds, would only be true if they won the jackpot.