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Am I missing something here...?!

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 10 years ago by beans.

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calabs's avatar - bass fret.jpg

United States
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November 26, 2005
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Posted: January 11, 2007, 8:37 am - IP Logged

It is pretty simple...,

the chance of someone hitting a straight double is lower than someone hitting a straight 24-way. (there are more 24-ways then there are  doubles) But the chance of hitting a straight, any straight, stays the same, 1 in 10.000

Both, for box or straight, you always have to take into acount that there are 10.000 straight numbers! Think about it...
'tho There are 210 numbers that represent 24-ways, they represent 5040 real numbers (straight, that is)
Now, it might be confusing, since there are 360 doubles box, but they "only" represent 4320 real numbers (straight, again).

Take a draw, any draw,
a number comes out, and you always start with 10.000 numbers,
but if you play box, the chances of hitting a double suddenly don't increase in comparison to the chance of you hitting a 24-way!!!

It is the number drawn that you can either "re-combine" into a 24-ways, or either into a 12-ways, or triples or double-doubles or quads (LOL)
Not the other way around.
I think that there is the point where it gets confusing.

You can compare boxed doubles (360) to boxed singles (210), but still there will be 5040 singles and 4320 doubles in the game. The chance of playing and hitting a double will always be less than playing and hitting a single.

I have a feeling the explanation i'm giving might seem very confused, but please take into account that English is not my native language....

The approach of the game should always be the same, because it always is the same: there are 10.000 numbers that can fall. 

cheers
Ricky

OK Ricky -  I'm beginning to see your point.  Mathematically it makes sense to me.  I guess I was just thinking along the lines of playing ONE double number st/bx, you had twice the chance of hitting it str8 compared to playing ONE  single number st/bx.  Does THAT makes sense, or is that still not correct?  I understand about the 10000 numbers, so maybe my statement is not correct.

BTW - You're English is FAR better than some folks I know in the States!! Oh, on a separate note, I'm thinking of getting a petition going here on LP to see how many of us would like to see your "old man" avitar return!!!  :-)

Lep

    calabs's avatar - bass fret.jpg

    United States
    Member #27050
    November 26, 2005
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    Posted: January 11, 2007, 8:44 am - IP Logged

    Calabs don't forget the series numbers for the pick4,They will sometime predict what is coming

    This week's pick 4 series

    2172 2182 2192 2202 2212 2222 2232 goodluck!

    Instructions:you can keep or drop the last digit and add the most due digit for your state ,it works!

    Thanks for the tip Delores!!!  I'll have to try that out! 

    Lep

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      NY
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      October 16, 2005
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      Posted: January 11, 2007, 11:44 am - IP Logged

      OK Ricky -  I'm beginning to see your point.  Mathematically it makes sense to me.  I guess I was just thinking along the lines of playing ONE double number st/bx, you had twice the chance of hitting it str8 compared to playing ONE  single number st/bx.  Does THAT makes sense, or is that still not correct?  I understand about the 10000 numbers, so maybe my statement is not correct.

      BTW - You're English is FAR better than some folks I know in the States!! Oh, on a separate note, I'm thinking of getting a petition going here on LP to see how many of us would like to see your "old man" avitar return!!!  :-)

      If I understand you correctly you're asking if the odds of winning it straight are different if you've played a double? When you play a 4 digit number there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that your 4 digit number will be drawn. It doesn't matter whether the pattern of the number is abcd, aabc, aaab or aaaa. If it's drawn then you win. A straight number can only be matched by that exact number. aabc and aacb are different numbers so playing aabc only gets a box win if the number drawn is aacb.

      How many permutations can be made from the digits in a 4 digit number depends on how many different digits the 4 digit number is made of. If the number is made from only 1 digit (aaaa) then there's only one number that can be made. For aaab there are 4 permutations, because the b could be in any of the 4 positions, and the other positions can only be a.  For aabc there are 12, and for abcd there are 24.

      Again, if I understand you correctly I think you're looking at things backwards in comparing boxed and straight. Since a 4 digit number is drawn and that number determines how many boxed combinations will win you're twice as likely to have a win with an abcd pattern as with an aabc pattern. If the number drawn has any variation of the aabc pattern there will be 1 number that wins straight and 11 that win boxed. For an abcd pattern there will be 1 that wins straight and 23 that win boxed.  *If* the number you picked was one of the permutations that  has an aabc pattern it's twice as likely that your permutation would be the one that is an exact match for th enumber drawn, compared to an abcd pattern, but you're only half as likely to have a permutation that matches the aabc pattern.

      Assuming your goal is to make a profit, it doesn't really matter, because the boxed payout accounts for the different odds of playing the abcd, aabc, and aaab patterns. aabc pays twice as much as abcd because you're twices as likely to have a boxed win with an aabc pattern.

        truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
        Michigan
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        September 24, 2005
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        Posted: January 11, 2007, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

        calabs

        First, I believe that having more numbers in play out of the 10,000 does improve your odds of winning.

        But, were you thinking something like this about the doubles....?

        Picking 3 numbers is easier than picking 4 numbers, therefore it is easier to hit doubles than it is to hit singles.

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          philly
          United States
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          July 14, 2002
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          Posted: January 11, 2007, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

          ok, lets think about this.  single # 's , one # double ,two  doubles, two #s consecutive,three #s consecutive,four #'s ,and there are a lot of combo's not listed. if you watch your state lotto you will see a pattern forming . what are the days that follow, straight or double, one double ,2 doubles, 3 doubles, 4 consecutive,(1 in 10,000) and what numbers to pick/