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Record For A Due Pair?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 10 years ago by JAG331.

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paurths's avatar - underground
Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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Posted: February 4, 2007, 8:57 am - IP Logged

 Ricky,

      You see more of those outlandish records than anyone in the World(seriously).....in the world.

      What have been your thoughts about these really Monster Stats?  You see soooooo much of this how to you process this and still maintain confidence in any boundary?

    They make me feel uncomfortable ..... "No Boundaries" ... 

    I've still not decided exactly how to think about them.

  Jadelottery has put forward some interesting thoughts about ....." 2 kinds of Probability"..... and their 2 types of Timing

No boundaries?

I think there are boundaries, but perhaps not all the draws are truly shown.
Meaning: what if the lotteries have "test draws" during the day, that would have its effect on the stats we have. We might think a digit is out for 100 draws or so, but in reality that digit might have fallen already. Only, it came in during the testdraw.

lasas3

An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

    paurths's avatar - underground
    Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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    Posted: February 4, 2007, 9:03 am - IP Logged

    Thanks Win D.

    Ive been toying with the idea of maybe trying to write an ultimate Pick 3 stats book...an almanac of sorts.  I'm having trouble getting the entire histories of some of the states though. Theres a handfull of states that make them difficult to aquire...NY, KY, WA to name a few.  I have D.C. on paper but havent put it in the puter yet.

    I've written a tool that collects all the max skips (current day and history) for LDR, Root, Sums, Digits per position, VTracs, Pairs box, Pairs straight, straight pairs in position, widths, repeating digits, repeating vtracs, all boxed numbers, consecutive digits, patterns : highlow, oddeven, inout, low-medium-high, open-closed, ...

    Some of those stats makes you wonder, makes you really wonder... 

    lasas3

    An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

      Littleoldlady's avatar - basket
      Clarksville
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      July 15, 2002
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      Posted: February 4, 2007, 8:55 pm - IP Logged

      It makes me wonder if they are crooks..that is what it makes me wonder.

      If you know your number is going to hit, have patience and then KILL IT!

      You never know when you will get another hit.

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
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        May 28, 2004
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        Posted: February 4, 2007, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

        For MI mid and eve combined, i have a highest skip of 1123 draws, not 1119...

        And the skip for the 21X i don't have 

        The history of draws i have goes back 9/1/1984, so most likely that is not the full drawhistory. 

        My draw history also goes back to 9/1/84.  It bothers me that our stats don't agree.....I'm kinda anal about my databases lol.  As of tonights evening draw I have 10,614 games in my Michigan list.  I show front pair 21X not hitting for 930 consecutive games (my sheet shows this as a skip of 931 because it hit the 931st game after its last hit).  This skip took place between MID 7/04/97 and EVE 12/31/98.

        I rechecked back pair X64 and still show 1119...it hit MID 2/24/04 and wasn't drawn again until EVE 9/06/05.

        If there was any bonus drawings in that time period this could be why our stats differ....I don't include them on any of my number lists.

        But yea...some of these stats really do make you wonder...thats for sure!

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
          ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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          June 3, 2004
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          Posted: February 5, 2007, 7:55 am - IP Logged

          It makes me wonder if they are crooks..that is what it makes me wonder.

          If they have test draws, you can bet money, they are crooked. When ever money's involved, there's crooks. Look at all the big corporations that have been hit with scandals.

            Thoth's avatar - binary
            Findlay, Ohio
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            Posted: February 5, 2007, 11:58 am - IP Logged

            If they have test draws, you can bet money, they are crooked. When ever money's involved, there's crooks. Look at all the big corporations that have been hit with scandals.

            Almost every state has a few outlandish skips for one kind of measurement or another.  I wonder how many times that one of the long out digits, pairs, combos, etc. that are way out there have actually came up during a test draw.  Guess we will never know.

            Here is a real crazy stat...

            If you look at 1,000 consecutive Pick 3 games and you look to see how many of the 1,000 straights were dawn over that time, you will find that around 632 of them will hit...meaning that the other 368 draws were repeats of those 632.  This also means that 368 out of the 1,000 possible straights never hit during that time.

            Now lets suppose that you somehow managed to pick those 368 non-hitting straights (without the knowledge that they wouldn't hit) and played them as a group starting at game number 1 and played them each game throughout game number 1,000.  For every draw that goes by, you have a 36.8% chance of one of the numbers from the group winning...but by game number 1,000 none of them have hit!

            368 in 1000 are the odds of the group hitting...This is better than 1/3!  With a probability of .368, there is a 98.98 chance that one of the numbers from the group will hit within 10 games.  But yet, it manages to make it out 1,000.  That same .368 probability also has a 99.9999999999998% chance of success within 74 games, but yet it makes it out 1,000.  In a thousand games, the chance is something 99.99999999999999.....(followed by so many nines that even at 15 digits of precision it gets rounded to 1, which implies (incorrectly) 100%. 

            The point is, is that having a better than 1/3 chance miss 1000 times consecutively seems impossible, but it happens in every state over and over again...of course, you would also have to wonder just how many ways that there are to pick 368 straights out of a group of 1000 possible and then ask what are the odds that you would actual play that losing group in the first place.

            ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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              Greenwich, CT
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              Posted: February 5, 2007, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

              I think the impossibility comes from picking the numbers beforehand.  Pick 368 different straights for your game of choice.  Now, what are the chances that all 368 you've chosen will not be drawn in the next 1,000 draws?

              There will always be numbers that don't hit, the trouble is telling which ones.