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Probabilty of Someone Winning a PB & MM Jackpot in the same Week!

Topic closed. 63 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Stack47.

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md
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Posted: March 2, 2007, 8:35 am - IP Logged

Prob988 what is the probabilty of someone winning a PB & MM Jackpot in the same week.  The odds of hitting one jackpot is crazy odds, but two in one week.?  Thats stupid crazy.

    johnph77's avatar - avatar
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    Posted: March 2, 2007, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

    Odds of winning PB each drawing - 1::146,107,962.
    Odds of winning PB in two drawings - 1::73,053,981.

    Odds of winning MM each drawing - 1::175,711,536.
    Odds of winning MM in two drawings - 1::87,855,768.

    Odds of winning both in two drawings - 1::6,418,213,606,212,408.

    gl

    j

    Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

    Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

     =^.^=

      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
      Wandering Aimlessly
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      Posted: March 2, 2007, 12:27 pm - IP Logged

      Totally disagree, John.  Why do you think the odds would be cut in half?  That would mean that everyone will eventually win if they just keep playing! 

      The odds are the odds are the odds are the odds.  They don't change just because there is one drawing, two drawings or 10 drawings.  This is the same logic people use when they assume buying 2 tickets changes the odds. It does very slightly, but not by 50%.  If the odds are 1 in 10 million, 2 tickets makes the odds 2 in 10 million, not 1 in 5 million.  There is a difference.

      The chance of an individual winning both the MM and the PB in his lifetime (not just in a week) is so atronomical that nobody should even try to imagine it. I'm not saying it can't be done, however, these are 2 entirely different games and winning one doesn't have any effect whatsoever on the odds of winning the other.

        spy153's avatar - maren

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        Posted: March 2, 2007, 12:30 pm - IP Logged

        Prob988 what is the probabilty of someone winning a PB & MM Jackpot in the same week.  The odds of hitting one jackpot is crazy odds, but two in one week.?  Thats stupid crazy.

        Stupid crazy is right. What makes you say such a thing?

        We can dream anyway, right?

        Thinking of...

        voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: March 2, 2007, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

          Odds of winning PB each drawing - 1::146,107,962.
          Odds of winning PB in two drawings - 1::73,053,981.

          Odds of winning MM each drawing - 1::175,711,536.
          Odds of winning MM in two drawings - 1::87,855,768.

          Odds of winning both in two drawings - 1::6,418,213,606,212,408.

          gl

          j


          A few days ago a thread went up about somebody winning $500 on a scratcher and buying 400 Mega millions tickets for the last drawing. 

          According to the "cut the odds in half" school of thought, that person would have had to have won. THEY DIDN'T.  

          The odds are the same for every one combination of numbers and for every drawing.  

          According to your odds of winning in two drawings above, a lot of us must be overdue to hit the jackpot as it is the 400th or 500th drawing or more for us.  

          A lot of lottery critics joke that the definition of a lottery is:

          lottery: a voluntary tax for people who are exceptionally bad at math.  

          It would be nice if we here didn't poast anything to give them reason to say, "told ya".

          Bang Head

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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            NY
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            Posted: March 2, 2007, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

            Totally disagree, John.  Why do you think the odds would be cut in half?  That would mean that everyone will eventually win if they just keep playing! 

            The odds are the odds are the odds are the odds.  They don't change just because there is one drawing, two drawings or 10 drawings.  This is the same logic people use when they assume buying 2 tickets changes the odds. It does very slightly, but not by 50%.  If the odds are 1 in 10 million, 2 tickets makes the odds 2 in 10 million, not 1 in 5 million.  There is a difference.

            The chance of an individual winning both the MM and the PB in his lifetime (not just in a week) is so atronomical that nobody should even try to imagine it. I'm not saying it can't be done, however, these are 2 entirely different games and winning one doesn't have any effect whatsoever on the odds of winning the other.

            John has it exactly right, assuming one ticket for each drawing.  The fact that a bunch of posters here don't understand the math doesn't change the facts. Having two tickets makes you twice as likely to win, whether it's two tickets for one drawing or one ticket for each of two drawings. The chances of two events happening is the probability of one event time the probabilty of the second event, so the chances of winning PB and MM when you buy one ticket for each of two drawings ineach game is  (MM odds / 2) X(PB odds / 2).

            The odds are the odds,  but the odds are  based on one ticket for one drawing. Odds are ratios, ratios are fractions, and fractions are 2nd grade arithmetic. Anyone who understands that 2/4 and 1/2 are exactly the same thing should be able to understand that 2 in 10 million is exactly the same as 1 in 5 million. All you have to do is divide the number on each side by 2. The game odds are always based on having one chance, but buying twice as many tickets cuts your odds exactly in half, whether that means buying 2 tickets instead of 1 or 100 tickets instead of 50.

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              NY
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              Posted: March 2, 2007, 2:13 pm - IP Logged


              A few days ago a thread went up about somebody winning $500 on a scratcher and buying 400 Mega millions tickets for the last drawing. 

              According to the "cut the odds in half" school of thought, that person would have had to have won. THEY DIDN'T.  

              The odds are the same for every one combination of numbers and for every drawing.  

              According to your odds of winning in two drawings above, a lot of us must be overdue to hit the jackpot as it is the 400th or 500th drawing or more for us.  

              A lot of lottery critics joke that the definition of a lottery is:

              lottery: a voluntary tax for people who are exceptionally bad at math.  

              It would be nice if we here didn't poast anything to give them reason to say, "told ya".

              Bang Head

              Buying 400 tickets makes the guy 400 times as likely to win as somebody who buys 1 ticket. With 400 tickets the probability of him winning is now 400 in 175,711,536, instead of 1 in 175,711,536. Simplifying the ratio, it's 1 in 439,278.84.  He's 400 times as likey to win, but his odds are still very slim, and he should expect to win only once every 439,278.84 drawings, assuming he always buys 400 tickets.

              Once again, you're showing that you don't understand the math at all.

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                Posted: March 2, 2007, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

                Actually it can be done..........I am 90% close to finding the holy grail of the 2nd prize and the grand prize. When I get to 95% I will test it out on both and you will know it if you see a DC and a Maryland second or grandprize winner that same week. I have paid my dues this last year.......and now it is time to collect.Wink

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                  Posted: March 2, 2007, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

                  Buying 400 tickets makes the guy 400 times as likely to win as somebody who buys 1 ticket. With 400 tickets the probability of him winning is now 400 in 175,711,536, instead of 1 in 175,711,536. Simplifying the ratio, it's 1 in 439,278.84.  He's 400 times as likey to win, but his odds are still very slim, and he should expect to win only once every 439,278.84 drawings, assuming he always buys 400 tickets.

                  Once again, you're showing that you don't understand the math at all.

                  Floyd

                  You're showing that I was right about people giving the lottery critics ammo.

                  400 tickets as oppossed to 1 ticket only reduces things by .00000022.

                  Let's see, tenths, hunderedths, thousandths, hundred-thousandths, millioniths, - well, that's six places right of the decimal, with two to go. You can do the rest.

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                    Harbinger
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                    Posted: March 2, 2007, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

                    It is matter of somatics, or point of view, each ticket by itself is a possible outcome of the current draw,  he has 400 tickets,  each has one of the possible outcomes, the "odds" for each ticket doesn't change.  He posseses 400 of the 175M possible outcomes (the 175M possible outcomes never change) in the game. The game contains 175M possible outcomes that are independent of who plays the game.  He posseses 400 of the possble outcomes, that means there are 175,000,000 - 400 outcomes that he DOESN'T have (174,999,600), so his chances of hitting are roughly   400/175M=2.2857142857142857142857142857143 e-6% = .0000022857% chance of hitting the field of possible outcomes. When you speak of odds, it relates to how many times you would have to play it in order to hit one of the possible 175M outcomes (everything remaining the same) that means to have any possbility of matching one of the possible outcomes you would have to play 1 / 2.2857142857142857142857142857143e-6 = 437500 times roughly, to begin expecting that you are getting close to one of the possible outcomes. This all equals to needing pure luck to hit.

                    437500 draws = 218750 weeks = 218750/52 = 4206 Years worth of draws of using those same 400 possible outcomes to begin thinking you have a chance to hit.

                    P.S. numbers rounded off.

                    LOL  jarasan

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                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                      Posted: March 3, 2007, 2:36 am - IP Logged


                      jarasan

                       ".......so his chances of hitting are roughly   400/175M=2.2857142857142857142857142857143 e-6% = .0000022857% chance of hitting the field of possible outcomes........

                      P.S. numbers rounded off.

                      LOL  jarasan"

                      Green laugh

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                        Posted: March 3, 2007, 6:56 am - IP Logged

                        Totally disagree, John.  Why do you think the odds would be cut in half?  That would mean that everyone will eventually win if they just keep playing! 

                        The odds are the odds are the odds are the odds.  They don't change just because there is one drawing, two drawings or 10 drawings.  This is the same logic people use when they assume buying 2 tickets changes the odds. It does very slightly, but not by 50%.  If the odds are 1 in 10 million, 2 tickets makes the odds 2 in 10 million, not 1 in 5 million.  There is a difference.

                        The chance of an individual winning both the MM and the PB in his lifetime (not just in a week) is so atronomical that nobody should even try to imagine it. I'm not saying it can't be done, however, these are 2 entirely different games and winning one doesn't have any effect whatsoever on the odds of winning the other.

                        The odds of winning if one buys two tickets are cut in half. Whether those two tickets are purchased for the same or different drawings makes no difference, the odds are cut in half. Just as the odds are the odds, the mathematics are the mathematics. As was pointed out, 2::10,000,000 is the same as 1::5,000,000. That's math.

                        The possible confusion here is with possibilities (and odds) vs. probabilities - they're two different ball games. Let's take a 1/10 lottery matrix, for example - draw 1 number from 10, 0 through 9. If I buy one ticket, my odds of winning are 1::10. If I buy two tickets (with different numbers for the same drawing, or with the same or different numbers for a subsequent drawing) my odds of winning are 2::10, or 1::5.

                        Does that mean that in every 10 drawings each number is guaranteed to appear once? And that, out of 10 people who buy tickets, all with differing numbers, all will win once? Nope. In the off chance, for instance, the numbers 1 through 9 appear in any order in 9 consecutive drawings, is 0 (zero) guaranteed to appear next? Nope. The odds of that zero appearing are exactly the same as any other number.

                        Take a look at the last 1,000 consecutive drawings of any Pick 3 game. Do all 1,000 possibilities appear? Not likely. I worked out a spreadsheet on the probability of such an event and the odds of that occurance are incredibly long. But here's the thing - if 999 different combinations should happen to appear in 999 consecutive draws, the odds of that 1,000th combination appearing in the very next draw would still be 1::1,000. No one is guaranteed an eventual win. That's why it's called gambling.

                        gl

                        j

                        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                         =^.^=

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                          Harbinger
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                          Posted: March 3, 2007, 7:51 am - IP Logged


                          jarasan

                           ".......so his chances of hitting are roughly   400/175M=2.2857142857142857142857142857143 e-6% = .0000022857% chance of hitting the field of possible outcomes........

                          P.S. numbers rounded off.

                          LOL  jarasan"

                          Green laugh

                          Sorry I meant the 175,711,536. Bang Head 

                          Also, it is semantics not somatics, too many pixels.  I was essentially backing your posts' point.             

                          LOL jarasanHiding Behind Computer

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                            Posted: March 3, 2007, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

                            Sorry I meant the 175,711,536. Bang Head 

                            Also, it is semantics not somatics, too many pixels.  I was essentially backing your posts' point.             

                            LOL jarasanHiding Behind Computer

                             johnph77

                            "The odds of winning if one buys two tickets are cut in half."

                            NOPE, they are not. Here's the flaw in this. Let's say there's a game with the odds of one million to one.

                            Lottery odds are based on the possible number of combinations.

                            So you guys with the odds are cut in half with each ticklet are saying this:

                            first ticket  one in one million

                            second ticket (same game) one in 500,000

                            third ticket: 1 in 250,000

                            fourth ticket:  1 in 125,000

                            fifth ticket: 1 in 62,500

                            sixth ticket: 1 in 31, 250

                            seventh ticket: 1 in 15, 625

                            eith ticket: 1 in 7,812.5

                            ninth ticket: 1 in 3,906.25

                            tenth ticket: 1 in  1,953.125

                            etc......

                             So, theorhetically, according to you and this reverse geometric progression drill on the odds, you could keep buying one more ticket until you'd "guarantee" a jackpot hit. Yeah, right.

                            All the next ticket does in any lottery is reduce the hundreds of millions (or millions - state lotteries) to one odds by one combination.  

                             

                             Jarasan

                             Yeah, I know, and thanks. 

                            It just cracked me up to see something carried to 30 decimal places and then the comment about all figures being rounded off 

                            Green laugh 

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                              four4me's avatar - gate1
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                              Posted: March 3, 2007, 12:13 pm - IP Logged

                              There is some person walking around with this huge horseshoe up his _____ that just might be the one to do it.