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Realities of winning the lottery

Topic closed. 22 replies. Last post 10 years ago by RJOh.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
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Posted: March 9, 2007, 12:12 pm - IP Logged

FatLane: "It's a big number and it's a hard number to put into perspective. If you play $1 each draw, it is expected that you will have to put up your $1 for 170 million drawings before it is statistically likely for your numbers to hit."

 

Interesting post, but according to probability, even if you play your $1 for the full course of 175,711,536 games (the exact odds & # of combos), you only stand a 63.21% chance of winning the jackpot.  Playing the $1 for twice that amount of games (351,423,072) still only gives you an 86.47% chance of winning.  It shouldn't matter if it is the same number or a new number being played each draw.

 

Another interesting observation...a 65,000 member pool each spending $1 per drawing only has a .1848% chance of winning the jackpot within 5 draws.  If that same pool plays for 1874 consecutive drawings, they will still only have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot within that time frame...and they will be spending $121,810,000 to attain it.  If they hit, they better hope its during one of those really big jackpots lol

 

   

Are these figures based on each player randomly picking their own numbers with no effort to avoid duplicates or numbers that have already hit?  If they are then that would suggest that a pool of people could increase their odds of winning with a strategy. Picking duplicates won't increase the odds of winning a jackpot and combinations of five or greater seldom repeat.  Since all LP members are allowed to post at least 10 lines per game a group could test those theory on the prediction board and get some real time results.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

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    Posted: March 9, 2007, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

    For buying a single ticket for as many drawings as there are combinations it doesn't matter what numbers you use. For buying multiple tickets (whether it's 2, 2000, or 2 million)  the probabilities are based on not having any duplicates. Nobody who understand how probability works is going to tell you what the probability is without knowing how many chances you have.

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      Posted: March 9, 2007, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

      There is a battle going on with the players vs. the Lottery. Serious players want to find patterns in the numbers so they have a fighting chance and the Lottery wants the game to be as fair as possible so will move Heaven and earth to make drawings as random as possible. But the balls are within very tight tolerances and the machines precision-made and the drawings adhere to strict procedures. An advanced enough program can diminish the odds to reachable levels. I have won a game where the odds were a quarter-million to one against me (I played 2 lines) on that particular drawing. I have seen sets repeat exactly more than once, and people win not once but twice. The best way for the Lottery to be really "fair" would be to go entirely to RNG which is the toughest to systemize. Or to keep relocating drawings like this last Mega. People are just bitter they didn't win so they blame it on the odds rather than their system was off target or they don't have a system.

      How's this for a system: I predict that in the next MM drawing, the first 5 balls will be white and the Bonus Ball will be yellow.  Really. I promise.

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
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        Posted: March 10, 2007, 12:43 am - IP Logged

        Are these figures based on each player randomly picking their own numbers with no effort to avoid duplicates or numbers that have already hit?  If they are then that would suggest that a pool of people could increase their odds of winning with a strategy. Picking duplicates won't increase the odds of winning a jackpot and combinations of five or greater seldom repeat.  Since all LP members are allowed to post at least 10 lines per game a group could test those theory on the prediction board and get some real time results.

        These figures assume that the lottery pool is playing 65,000different combinations with no duplicates.  But even with no efforts to ensure that each combo is different, I calculate that only about 12 or 13 duplicates would actually exist in 65,000 totally random picks.

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

          jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
          Harbinger
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          Posted: March 10, 2007, 8:28 am - IP Logged

          There were approx. 2.8 miliion tix sold in MD.for the 370M draw on mega millions three tix hit for 5/5, no big winners.  Luck is big factor. 

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: March 11, 2007, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

            These figures assume that the lottery pool is playing 65,000different combinations with no duplicates.  But even with no efforts to ensure that each combo is different, I calculate that only about 12 or 13 duplicates would actually exist in 65,000 totally random picks.

            I tracked the Ohio Buckeye5 (5/37=435,897 possible combinations) from 04/06/93 to 10/02/04. That's 2723 random drawings and doing that time six combinations of five repeated and 1359 other times the winning numbers were one number from repeating a previous combination of five.  I wouldn't think terminals picking numbers randomly would do any better, I suspect the duplicates could be as high as 0.1%.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

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              Posted: March 12, 2007, 1:10 am - IP Logged

              I tracked the Ohio Buckeye5 (5/37=435,897 possible combinations) from 04/06/93 to 10/02/04. That's 2723 random drawings and doing that time six combinations of five repeated and 1359 other times the winning numbers were one number from repeating a previous combination of five.  I wouldn't think terminals picking numbers randomly would do any better, I suspect the duplicates could be as high as 0.1%.

              I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. For the 5 of 37 game, if there are no repeats in the first 436 drawings  1 out of 1000, or 0.1%, of the possible combinations will have been drawn. That means that in the next 1000 drawings we would expect to see a repeat of one of the first 436 combinations, and in the remaining 2287 drawings we would expect 2.23 repeats, which is 0.1%. Have 437 more drawings and 2/1000 of the combinations should have been drawn, and we should expect that there is a 0.2% chance that any given drawing will produce a repeat of a previously drawn comibnation. Thepercentage of repeats you should expect gets higher the more drawings you have. The results you saw are about what  probability suggests. Now that 2718 combinations have been drawn there should be another repeat once every  160 drawings, or .62% of the time.

              For MM there are more than 400 times as many combinations, so even 65,000 results is a drop in the bucket.  Buying 50,000 distinct combinations means you've covered 1 of every 3514 combinations, so you would expect to get 1 duplicate in the next 3514 tickets, and just over 4 by the time you've bought the 65,000th ticket. Of course that's a simplification, since each additional combination increases the chances that a subsequent ticket will match one you've already got, but you had to get to 50,000 before it got as high as 1 in 3514.

              As a practical matter, simply buying 65,000 tickets at random is the same as making sure that  you have 65,000 different combinations. If you've got 65,000 chances and I have 64,935 chances (about 40 less than expected), you're a whopping 0.01% more likely to win than I am, but there's still more than a 99.96% chance that you'll lose.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: March 13, 2007, 9:59 am - IP Logged

                There really wasn't a point being made, just an observation.  Games with fewer numbers seem to show up the weakness of strategies a lot sooner, that's the reason I test my strategies by trying to pick winning combinations on the prediction board for West Virgina Cash25.  I'm developing a strategy to play Ohio Classic Loto  when it has a little more history.  I won't be buying 65,000 tickets so I will need a strategy for picking my numbers.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking