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If I reduce the MM or PB number pool by half and play 3o2e/3e2o...(?)

Topic closed. 28 replies. Last post 10 years ago by MegaWinner.

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justxploring's avatar - villiarna
Wandering Aimlessly
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Posted: March 29, 2007, 11:04 am - IP Logged

BobP - do you know if Florida's 6/53 Lotto has ever had a combination repeat?  Last time I studied all the drawings for the past 10 years, no sets had been drawn twice.  I realize that during this period the game changed from 6/49 a few years back, so this changed everything.  On the other hand, every drawing is a new game anyway. 

The scary thing is sitting at my computer one day for about 30 minutes and entering more than 100 different combinations randomly, only to see that none of them ever hit or even got 5/6.  I realize that there are 22.9 million variations, but it just makes me realize more and more that it's just a matter of when the lottery fairy sprinkles her magic dust on you.

 

 
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    Posted: March 29, 2007, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

    Sorry I took so long to reply, I didn't even know you replied back.

     

    "Again, you're simply showing that you don't understand how probability works."  "Probability is an exact science. You're just confused about what it can "predict". It doesn't predict future events. It describes probabilities. There's a reason we don't refer to the "laws of certainty" or the "laws of what's definitely going to happen."

    No, I took advanced mathematics in college.  I'm pretty versed on the subject of probablity.  Probability is NOT an exact science and I am DEFINITELY not confused.  I don't know where you got your definition from but the very nature of probability is to predict a future outcome; which cannot be done with 100% accuarcy all the time so it tries to come "close".  "a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur; a number expressing the ratio of favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible;"  That is not exact.  And when I say the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO, thats why it didn't happen. 

    New mathematical theories and changes/challenges to old ones happen all the time.  That uranium example you provided proves my point.  You still cannot predict with 100% accuracy when any of the atoms will decay, all you can do is speculate with the use of probability.  Sure you can get close and possibly even perfect, but not perfect everytime.  

    "Sorry, but you don't get to define how the world works. The science of probability and the definitions are already well established. Likelihood is just another way of describing probability, so probablity/likelihood = 1.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000."

    Actually, I used the real definitions of probability and liklihood, I just paraphrased them.  Go ahead and look them up.

    "If somebody cares to do that experimentally it's very unlikely (about 0.0045% chance) that there will be no back to back repeats in that many tries, but unlikely things happen all the time."

    Either thats not what you said the first time around or I misunderstood you.  From what I read from your other reply, you said that it would definitely happen (repeat) in at least 175,711,536 tries. 

    "And? What will that pattern do to change the way pi works? Pi is the relationship between the diameter and circumference of a circle. If we figure it out to  another few billion decimal places we may indeed find that it begins repeating the familiar 14159 "pattern' but that won't change how it works. Set your compass for some radius and draw a circle and the circumference will still be exactly 2pi times the radius."

    You missed my WHOLE point.  My point was that challenges to established facts WILL HAPPEN.  Some will change and some won't

    "The study of probabiltii has shown time and again that it does a very good job of predicting general results."

    While I do agree with this statement, it is from the standpoint of an opinion.  That is neither fact nor exact.    

    "Is it possible that there's something at work that we don't know about that has some affect on probability? Sure. Is it possible that  the outcome of lotteries is goverened by aliens with some agenda that we aren't aware of?. Yes, to that too."

    Now your being a wiseguy, I meant no such of the sort and its "probable" you knew that. 

    Has thousands of years of study turned up any evidence that probability doesn't work exactly the way we currrently think it does? No."

    Exactly, and that is probability isn't an exact science.  We (people) may have mastered the variables that we know of now but there are still others that haven't been defined.  At the present time, probability cannot predict anything with 100% accuracy all the time.  That is why it is called probablity.  

    I challenge you to find any reputable source on the internet, or anywhere else to say otherwise. 

    "I took advanced mathematics in college.  I'm pretty versed on the subject of probablity."

    Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what  we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not "pretty versed" in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in the past.

    "the very nature of probability is to predict a future outcome; which cannot be done with 100% accuarcy all the time so it tries to come "close".  "a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur;"

    Do you read the stuff you write?  Can't you even see that the first and last parts of what you wrote say different things? Did you notice that the last part says just what I've already told you? Probability doesn't predict outcomes. It describes the chances of particular outcomes. Moreover, because it is an exact science, it describes them precisely. I suppose we should at least be glad you're using dictionary.com for your definitions and no longer making up your own.

     "when I say the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO, thats why it didn't happen. "

    Whenever there is more than 1 possible outcome there will always be at least one outcome that doesn't occur in every single trial. If you are about to flip a coin there is precisely a 1 in 2 chance that you will get heads, but about half of the time the result will be tails. Are you suggesting thatat some point the unknown magical force you propose changes the probability of heads to zero, so that it's not really a random event, and that's why we sometimes get tails? No, that can't be right, because you clearly say "the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO."  I guess that means that long before the coin was even minted the outcome of every single flip of that future coin was already determined by yourunknown magical force?

    << " Is it possible that  the outcome of lotteries is goverened by aliens with some agenda that we aren't aware of?. Yes, to that too."

    "Now your being a wiseguy, I meant no such of the sort and its "probable" you knew that. " >>

    I'm simply pointing out that there are a lot of things that may be possible, but that doesn't mean they're even slightly probable. The evidence for your proposed unknown magical force is even less than the evidence for aliens, though I'll freely admit that the evidence that aliens are influencing the outcome of the lottery is only the same as, and not better than, the evidence for your proposed unknown magicalforce.

    What you are suggesting  is completely unsupported by any evidence,  and it's contradicted by an enormous amount of evidence.

    "From what I read from your other reply, you said that it would definitely happen (repeat) in at least 175,711,536 tries. "

    The only thing I've said about back to back repeats is that each combination has exactly a 1 in 175,711,536 chance of  coming up in any particualr drawing, whether it's a combination that has never been drawn before, or the combination that was drawn in the previous drawing. Of course those numbers are for MM, and for other events the odds wi be different. I did say is that for events with higher probabilities there have been back to back repeats. The same number has come  up inconsecutive drawings of pick 3 several times.

    "At the present time, probability cannot predict anything with 100% accuracy all the time."

    It isn't expected to predict the actual outcome, and nobody who understands how it works says that it will or expect that it will.  All that is expected of probability is that it will accurately describe the  chances that an outcome will result, or that it will give us a reasonably accurate estimate of the actual outcomes of a very large number of trials.

    " That is why it is called probablity."

    Yup. 

      MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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      Posted: March 29, 2007, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

      "I took advanced mathematics in college.  I'm pretty versed on the subject of probablity."

      Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what  we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not "pretty versed" in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in the past.

      "the very nature of probability is to predict a future outcome; which cannot be done with 100% accuarcy all the time so it tries to come "close".  "a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur;"

      Do you read the stuff you write?  Can't you even see that the first and last parts of what you wrote say different things? Did you notice that the last part says just what I've already told you? Probability doesn't predict outcomes. It describes the chances of particular outcomes. Moreover, because it is an exact science, it describes them precisely. I suppose we should at least be glad you're using dictionary.com for your definitions and no longer making up your own.

       "when I say the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO, thats why it didn't happen. "

      Whenever there is more than 1 possible outcome there will always be at least one outcome that doesn't occur in every single trial. If you are about to flip a coin there is precisely a 1 in 2 chance that you will get heads, but about half of the time the result will be tails. Are you suggesting thatat some point the unknown magical force you propose changes the probability of heads to zero, so that it's not really a random event, and that's why we sometimes get tails? No, that can't be right, because you clearly say "the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO."  I guess that means that long before the coin was even minted the outcome of every single flip of that future coin was already determined by yourunknown magical force?

      << " Is it possible that  the outcome of lotteries is goverened by aliens with some agenda that we aren't aware of?. Yes, to that too."

      "Now your being a wiseguy, I meant no such of the sort and its "probable" you knew that. " >>

      I'm simply pointing out that there are a lot of things that may be possible, but that doesn't mean they're even slightly probable. The evidence for your proposed unknown magical force is even less than the evidence for aliens, though I'll freely admit that the evidence that aliens are influencing the outcome of the lottery is only the same as, and not better than, the evidence for your proposed unknown magicalforce.

      What you are suggesting  is completely unsupported by any evidence,  and it's contradicted by an enormous amount of evidence.

      "From what I read from your other reply, you said that it would definitely happen (repeat) in at least 175,711,536 tries. "

      The only thing I've said about back to back repeats is that each combination has exactly a 1 in 175,711,536 chance of  coming up in any particualr drawing, whether it's a combination that has never been drawn before, or the combination that was drawn in the previous drawing. Of course those numbers are for MM, and for other events the odds wi be different. I did say is that for events with higher probabilities there have been back to back repeats. The same number has come  up inconsecutive drawings of pick 3 several times.

      "At the present time, probability cannot predict anything with 100% accuracy all the time."

      It isn't expected to predict the actual outcome, and nobody who understands how it works says that it will or expect that it will.  All that is expected of probability is that it will accurately describe the  chances that an outcome will result, or that it will give us a reasonably accurate estimate of the actual outcomes of a very large number of trials.

      " That is why it is called probablity."

      Yup. 

      Dude, i'm done.  It would be pointless for me to sit here and point out the many contradictions and fallacies you have within your replies as it shows you must be infected with "gotta-be-right-itis".  Its quite obvious you don't know as much about probability as you think you know.  If you did, you would understand my argument.  If you don't believe me, go back and read your own replies a few times and see where you put your foot in your mouth.  LOL @ you thinking everyone around you except you isn't smart enough to know the definitions of things and that we have to rely on "dictionary.com".  Says a lot about you.  Whoops, i'm sorry mr. resident genius, I didn't mean to present an alternate point of view.  My bad, i'll stay in a grasshopper's place.

      I'm done with this thread as it seems you just want to be right so i'll take the high road and say you are right for the sake of it.  Your right!  There you have it, i'm done.  Chair Surrender

      Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley

        MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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        Posted: March 29, 2007, 4:57 pm - IP Logged

        Also, I didn't catch thiis the first time.

        "Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what  we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not "pretty versed" in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in the past."

        No genius, I asked a question about odds that I could have figured out on my own but I was on my way out the door.  like I said, I am VERY WELL versed on probability.  I also know how to calculate odds pretty damned well too.  How does that foot taste? 

        Like I said before, I'm done.  Here's and apple teacher.

        Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley

          Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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          Posted: March 29, 2007, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

          A lot of people think a winning lottery combination won't be drawn again.  When Florida had a 5/26 game all one had to do to be a jackpot winner was to play all the previously drawn combinations in each draw.  There were something like 7 jackpot combinations that repeated within this time frame before it became unprofitable.

          When one applies the birthday paradox to lottery the odds of a winning combination ever repeating is better then you'd think.


          When it comes to Powerball the odds are 50/50 whether a drawing will contain any of the winning numbers from the previous drawing.  As there is no way to know whether one, two or three of the previous numbers will be drawn let along which of them, the easy path is to eliminate the previous draw's numbers from your selection for the next drawing.  The larger the game the better this works. 

          For the Powerball itself, the best to play are the five longest out.

          BobP

          Actually the odds are not 50/50 that at least one number from the last drawing. It's actually lower than that. For example, in PowerBall,  the odds that at least one white ball from the last drawing will appear in the next drawing would be 5/55, or 1/11.

          Gonna win.Big Smile

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: March 29, 2007, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

            BobP - do you know if Florida's 6/53 Lotto has ever had a combination repeat?  Last time I studied all the drawings for the past 10 years, no sets had been drawn twice.  I realize that during this period the game changed from 6/49 a few years back, so this changed everything.  On the other hand, every drawing is a new game anyway. 

            The scary thing is sitting at my computer one day for about 30 minutes and entering more than 100 different combinations randomly, only to see that none of them ever hit or even got 5/6.  I realize that there are 22.9 million variations, but it just makes me realize more and more that it's just a matter of when the lottery fairy sprinkles her magic dust on you.

             

             

            Out of curiosity I checked Florida's lottery website and since the matrix changed from 6/49 to 6/53 on 10/28/99, combinations of fives have repeated three times, combinations of fours have repeated 187 times,  but no combinations of sixes have repeated yet.

             10/25/06  13 20 27 33 41 43 *
             02/28/04  12 13 20 27 33 43

             09/20/03  17 31 33 38 44 53
             11/22/02  15 17 33 38 44 53

             11/13/02  12 22 27 32 38 44
             10/21/02  11 12 22 27 32 44

            * matched five even more if you include drawings before the matrix changed.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

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              Posted: March 30, 2007, 2:13 am - IP Logged

              Also, I didn't catch thiis the first time.

              "Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what  we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not "pretty versed" in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in the past."

              No genius, I asked a question about odds that I could have figured out on my own but I was on my way out the door.  like I said, I am VERY WELL versed on probability.  I also know how to calculate odds pretty damned well too.  How does that foot taste? 

              Like I said before, I'm done.  Here's and apple teacher.

              If I'd put my foot in my mouth it would taste pretty bad after wading through your last few posts. "I can do it myslef, but I was going out." I'm surprised I can't taste it just from standing here.

              Don't bother sending me another PM to tell me you posted again. I recognize a new post when I see one.  

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                Posted: March 30, 2007, 2:15 am - IP Logged

                Actually the odds are not 50/50 that at least one number from the last drawing. It's actually lower than that. For example, in PowerBall,  the odds that at least one white ball from the last drawing will appear in the next drawing would be 5/55, or 1/11.

                The odds that any one number will turn up  in a PB drawing are 5 in 55. That means there's about a 9% chance that the first number from the previous drawing will repeat. It also means there's about a 9% chance that the second number will repeat. Ditto for numbers 3, 4 & 5. Add it up and there's better than a 45% chance that one of the numbers will repeat. That's close enough to call it 50/50 when discussing it in general terms.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: March 30, 2007, 2:33 am - IP Logged

                  During the last 400 PB drawings (58%)233 times none of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing, (36%)145 times one of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing, (5%)21 times two of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing and one time three of the numbers were in the previous drawing.  No need to calculate the odds when you can look at actual results.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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                    Posted: March 30, 2007, 9:54 am - IP Logged

                    If I'd put my foot in my mouth it would taste pretty bad after wading through your last few posts. "I can do it myslef, but I was going out." I'm surprised I can't taste it just from standing here.

                    Don't bother sending me another PM to tell me you posted again. I recognize a new post when I see one.  

                    Trust me "genius," the reason I pm'ed you was because you took so long to reply before (you must have been too busy trying to pry your foot of out of that arrogant mouth of yours).  At that point I thought it was a friendly debate; even giving you an "out" to cut the wiseguy bullscheisse out by at first, not resorting to the childish behavior of namecalling and wisecracks which you did when you realized you were wrong.  But I digress.  I guess I ultimately had to stoop to your low level for a sec and show you by example how foolish you look so you'd get the point.

                    Don't flatter yourself by thinking I pm'ed you for any other reason.  Thumbs DownThumbs Down 

                    Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley

                      MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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                      Posted: April 1, 2007, 2:07 am - IP Logged

                      ""when I say the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO, thats why it didn't happen. "

                      Whenever there is more than 1 possible outcome there will always be at least one outcome that doesn't occur in every single trial. If you are about to flip a coin there is precisely a 1 in 2 chance that you will get heads, but about half of the time the result will be tails. Are you suggesting thatat some point the unknown magical force you propose changes the probability of heads to zero, so that it's not really a random event, and that's why we sometimes get tails? No, that can't be right, because you clearly say "the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO."  I guess that means that long before the coin was even minted the outcome of every single flip of that future coin was already determined by yourunknown magical force?

                       &

                      "Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what  we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not "pretty versed" in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in the past."


                      I really should "break it down" or explain it to you in "laymen's terms" in how probability "works" but that would require a LOT of typing which you are surely not worthy of me doing for you.  I suggest you go back to school and ask your math professor about probabilty.  I thought I was debating with an individual that knew what he was talking about but I guess I was wrong.

                      Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley

                        guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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                        Posted: April 1, 2007, 5:14 am - IP Logged

                        I made a posting awhile back that said out of 100 PB games, we had a repeat number 48 times. That's 48%.

                        But for the subsequent 50 drawings, we had like 12 repeats, that's around 24%.

                        Things tend to run in 'trends'.

                        I have seen a few things in the last 2-3 weeks in PB that I have not seen in the last 15 months at all, so I have a choice to make:

                        - Do I continue to play based on prior history and just wait for things to come back, or do I try to 'chase' things ?

                        THIS is precisely what makes this a SPORT, just like Poker or BlackJack.... and I enjoy it.

                        I will go on record with foot in mouth and predict that for PB 4/4, wb #2 or #36 will not hit, and I doubt #16 hits as well. That leaves #5 and #40 IF you were going to bet a repeat.

                        Now let's see if I just gave myself the kiss of death.

                        (PS - I may revise the 'predictions' in 2 days, based on further research) 

                          MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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                          Posted: April 1, 2007, 8:21 am - IP Logged

                          I made a posting awhile back that said out of 100 PB games, we had a repeat number 48 times. That's 48%.

                          But for the subsequent 50 drawings, we had like 12 repeats, that's around 24%.

                          Things tend to run in 'trends'.

                          I have seen a few things in the last 2-3 weeks in PB that I have not seen in the last 15 months at all, so I have a choice to make:

                          - Do I continue to play based on prior history and just wait for things to come back, or do I try to 'chase' things ?

                          THIS is precisely what makes this a SPORT, just like Poker or BlackJack.... and I enjoy it.

                          I will go on record with foot in mouth and predict that for PB 4/4, wb #2 or #36 will not hit, and I doubt #16 hits as well. That leaves #5 and #40 IF you were going to bet a repeat.

                          Now let's see if I just gave myself the kiss of death.

                          (PS - I may revise the 'predictions' in 2 days, based on further research) 

                          I too have noticed a weird trend in both games according to my own stats.  I have notived that a large number repeats and back to back numbers are happening almost every drawing.  But again, this is based off how I track the game.

                          Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley

                            MegaWinner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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                            Posted: April 1, 2007, 8:43 am - IP Logged

                            I also agree with your picks for Weds.

                            Sun Smiley I got my fingers crossed ready to win!!! Sun Smiley