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When you backtest systems..

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 10 years ago by KyMystikal.

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How far do you go back in your past results?

1 month [ 16 ]  [37.21%]
2 months [ 1 ]  [2.33%]
3 -5 months [ 5 ]  [11.63%]
6 months [ 4 ]  [9.30%]
7-9 months [ 1 ]  [2.33%]
1 year [ 4 ]  [9.30%]
A year or more [ 12 ]  [27.91%]
Total Valid Votes [ 43 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 4 ]  
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Sunny California
United States
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May 31, 2006
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Posted: May 22, 2007, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

Is there such a thing as too much backtesting?? What's your limit when you feel whether a system is working or not???

Thanks all!

Do You Want To Win Today?  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/286011

    stavros's avatar - avatar 6898.gif
    Florida
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    Member #6147
    August 8, 2004
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    Posted: May 22, 2007, 2:05 pm - IP Logged

    I generally backtest 30 days.  If nothing has hit within that perioid, I don't go any further.  If there are hits during that 30 days, then I go back another month or so to see if it's consistent.

    Good Luck!

    Stavros

     

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
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      January 17, 2006
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      Posted: May 22, 2007, 2:16 pm - IP Logged

      I discarded the vote on this one.

      I think one of the things that make iteasy for system sellers to sell systems, whether they are worth anything or not, is that with the variety of lotteries available, the number of states with Pick 3 and 4 games and more, a person could come up with a theory and then keep searching and searching until they found a set of results that "prove" their theory.

      This is not unique to lottery systems, you can find it for blackjack, dice, roulette, horse racing, sports betting, etc...

      People will develop an idea and keep trying to find a run at a game to back up their idea.

      Make the data fit the theory in other words, instead of looking at the data first and then developing the theory.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        derek7's avatar - speedykat
        IL
        United States
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        March 4, 2006
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        Posted: May 22, 2007, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

        I don't backtest at all.

        /Derek

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
          United States
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          June 18, 2003
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          Posted: May 22, 2007, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

          I have back tested a few systems and usually only about 3 weeks back. A few times there were promising results. However since they change the ball sets and machines for every drawing i don't know if back testing proves anything.

          There are to many variables to consider. However if a system is any good then there should be no reason to do extensive back testing. I can admit i don't think there are any systems that can produce enough winning picks. Supposed you back tested for say a month and there were 8 winning picks, then tried using the system and it didn't produce a winner for a month.

           At least no system i have used can repeatedly pull out a winner. Some systems work some days while other systems work other times. Thats why i think some people use multiple systems and go from there.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: May 22, 2007, 3:42 pm - IP Logged


            The only thing back testing has ever proved to me is almost any theory will work once and "if" its parameters are wide enough it will probably work again but I can't afford to cover that many "ifs" until it does.  Sometime when you back test, you can cheat yourself because you know the results you're looking for.  I prefer to forward test, then I'm sure I'm not testing for known results, beside it's extra work rewriting the data file to look as it did the date of each back test.

            Since I like to play jackpot style games, I test all of my theories and systems on the West Virgina Cash25, it's the easiest game of that type that I know of and if something is going to work, it's going to work there a lot quicker.  So far I'm still testing and looking.  My results on the prediction board look a lot better than they really are because the board treats all pick6 games the same.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
              Wisconsin
              United States
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              March 27, 2003
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              Posted: May 22, 2007, 4:57 pm - IP Logged

              I discarded the vote on this one.

              I think one of the things that make iteasy for system sellers to sell systems, whether they are worth anything or not, is that with the variety of lotteries available, the number of states with Pick 3 and 4 games and more, a person could come up with a theory and then keep searching and searching until they found a set of results that "prove" their theory.

              This is not unique to lottery systems, you can find it for blackjack, dice, roulette, horse racing, sports betting, etc...

              People will develop an idea and keep trying to find a run at a game to back up their idea.

              Make the data fit the theory in other words, instead of looking at the data first and then developing the theory.

              Definitely agree. A system may very well work in one state, but not work in others. I've never figured out the "why", but for some reason -- while one would think that a Pick 3 game is the same in all states, the games don't seem to act the same in all states.  It's one of those little "tricky things" that make something look like what it isn't.....similar to the fact that you can take 20 combinations at random, call them predictions for "all states" and you are bound to hit something somewhere.  It doesn't mean you made a profit.  You just got a hit due to the number of games involved.

              I'll backtest something for WI for the past month. If it is consistent, I'll grab a couple of months (non-consecutive) and backtest those.....maybe a month from each of the past two years. If I get a month where it stinks terribly, I drop the system.  No system is valid to me if it you get zero or one hit in thirty days.  IMHO that isn't a good system.

              ============

              How can you tell if a politician is lying?

              Answer: His lips are moving.

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                Sunny California
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                Posted: May 22, 2007, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

                I generally backtest 30 days.  If nothing has hit within that perioid, I don't go any further.  If there are hits during that 30 days, then I go back another month or so to see if it's consistent.

                That would seem the smart way to do it. Why bother going on if nothing shows up? Good suggestion!

                  Avatar
                  Sunny California
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                  Posted: May 22, 2007, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

                  I discarded the vote on this one.

                  I think one of the things that make iteasy for system sellers to sell systems, whether they are worth anything or not, is that with the variety of lotteries available, the number of states with Pick 3 and 4 games and more, a person could come up with a theory and then keep searching and searching until they found a set of results that "prove" their theory.

                  This is not unique to lottery systems, you can find it for blackjack, dice, roulette, horse racing, sports betting, etc...

                  People will develop an idea and keep trying to find a run at a game to back up their idea.

                  Make the data fit the theory in other words, instead of looking at the data first and then developing the theory.

                  Thanks for shedding some light!

                  Make the data fit the theory in other words, instead of looking at the data first and then developing the theory.

                  I like this way of thinking!

                    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                    Indiana
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                    Posted: May 22, 2007, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

                    Most of my methods are backtested about a month, but I got a few that go all the way back to when the matrix changed.

                    Gonna win.Big Smile


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                      Posted: May 22, 2007, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

                      It all depends on the situation. If I backtest a p-3 system for 5 consecutive days and win straight all 5 days, buying only one ticket a day, I'll know that's a really special winning system, and not just a fluke.......LOL ROFL

                      On the other hand...it very well could be a fluke. Those kinds of flukes are fine with me....

                      Actually...that's a good poll. Has anyone won straight on the p-3, 2 days consecutively?....LOL

                        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                        Pennsylvania
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                        Posted: May 22, 2007, 10:01 pm - IP Logged

                        I backtest with all available data...

                        a short term "promising" system might have 2 or 3 year gaps with no wins... I need to see the system vs. all of the history... Helps gauge when NOT to play.

                        For example, a sysem that consistently averages one hit a year could be played until won then dropped.

                        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

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                          Sunny California
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                          Posted: May 22, 2007, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

                          Thanks for all your input everyone,appreciate it a lot. I'm enjoying the show over here,keep 'em coming!        Cracker Of A Time ! Wish your friends/ near ones with this cute ecard.

                            paurths's avatar - underground
                            Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
                            Belgium
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                            Posted: May 23, 2007, 2:40 am - IP Logged

                            I backtest against the entire drawhistory of each state. (or at least, the draws that i have in my database)
                            Then i will run the same test against the draws for an upcoming month.

                            cheers
                            Ricky

                            lasas3

                            An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

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                              Posted: May 24, 2007, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                              Hey lottolaughs, I just stumbled across this poll.

                              When working on P3 & P-4 I usually backtest one month and according to the results I either drop it or keep going back sometimes as far as one year.

                              When working with P-5 & P-6 I usually start tracking on the day of my system start and test going forward tracking each new draw instead of backtesting. I'm not interested in past performance. You can only win in the present and/or future not the past.

                              Bud

                              Isabel, you are going to feel very silly when this turns out to be make-believe.