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When you backtest systems..

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 10 years ago by KyMystikal.

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How far do you go back in your past results?

1 month [ 16 ]  [37.21%]
2 months [ 1 ]  [2.33%]
3 -5 months [ 5 ]  [11.63%]
6 months [ 4 ]  [9.30%]
7-9 months [ 1 ]  [2.33%]
1 year [ 4 ]  [9.30%]
A year or more [ 12 ]  [27.91%]
Total Valid Votes [ 43 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 4 ]  
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joplin
United States
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August 17, 2006
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Posted: May 31, 2007, 11:41 am - IP Logged

It doesn't seem to make any difference how I back test a system, when I put money on it, the hits go sour. 

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
    Member #41383
    June 16, 2006
    1969 Posts
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    Posted: June 4, 2007, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

    I backtest as far back as the ballset changes, I don't go back 'forever' because it's irrelevent.

    That gives me some data to work with.

    Next up as you move forward form those dates is to see if you can find any trends, because they come and go.

    The last PB Red ballset change was 3/8/06.  Two numbers have not been hit since the change, and seven numbers have hit only once. Contrast that with nineteen numbers that have hit four times or more since then.

     

    The last White ball ballset change was 8/31/05, at which time they also added #54 and #55 to the matrix. That's another reason you cannot backtest beyond 8/31/05 for the white balls. 

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      Amarillo/Austin
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      April 25, 2003
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      Posted: June 4, 2007, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

      I test in 10 or 15 different states over a period of time because if it works in one, it will work in all of them.  After all, math doesn't lie.  People who write get-rich-quick books sometimes do. . . .

      Orangeman                            Smash

        KyMystikal's avatar - 1457224010054
        Florence, Alabama
        United States
        Member #8658
        November 13, 2004
        1993 Posts
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        Posted: June 11, 2007, 12:52 am - IP Logged

        I generally back test for the current year. If I see any type of pattern then I will go back over previous years. When I go back over years I see patterns like certain numbers falling during the same months and numbers fallin during the winter and so forth. Going on that note a double 1 is due in IL midday, double 8 is due IL evening, and double 9 is due Ky evening.

        I love doubles and remember, it's just a game!!!!!!

          KyMystikal's avatar - 1457224010054
          Florence, Alabama
          United States
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          November 13, 2004
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          Posted: June 11, 2007, 12:53 am - IP Logged

          I generally back test for the current year. If I see any type of pattern then I will go back over previous years. When I go back over years I see patterns like certain numbers falling during the same months and numbers fallin during the winter and so forth. Going on that note a double 1 is due in IL midday, double 8 is due IL evening, and double 9 is due Ky evening.

          Also a quad is due in Ky this year. A quad falls every 2 years.

          I love doubles and remember, it's just a game!!!!!!

            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

            United States
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            Posted: June 11, 2007, 4:26 am - IP Logged

            Also a quad is due in Ky this year. A quad falls every 2 years.

            But there is nothing to make a Quad hit in KY this year - or next year, and then having two hit in 2009.  It would still average out to one every two years.  Think outside the box.

              KyMystikal's avatar - 1457224010054
              Florence, Alabama
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              November 13, 2004
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              Posted: July 4, 2007, 1:48 am - IP Logged

              But there is nothing to make a Quad hit in KY this year - or next year, and then having two hit in 2009.  It would still average out to one every two years.  Think outside the box.

              I don't believe in a certain numbers triggering something to fall. I believe in statistics, for instance a double 4 should fall on the KY midday pick 3 this week and a double 3 will fall on KY evening. A double 7 should fall in IL this month and it could even be 777. I'd play 99 on midday in IL and 66 on evening. While I'm talking about IL on the evening 11 should be a HOT pair it has only been out twice this year on evening and it averages about 20 times a year. In TN 33 is due on midday and 77 is due on evening.

              I love doubles and remember, it's just a game!!!!!!

                KyMystikal's avatar - 1457224010054
                Florence, Alabama
                United States
                Member #8658
                November 13, 2004
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                Posted: July 4, 2007, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

                I don't believe in a certain numbers triggering something to fall. I believe in statistics, for instance a double 4 should fall on the KY midday pick 3 this week and a double 3 will fall on KY evening. A double 7 should fall in IL this month and it could even be 777. I'd play 99 on midday in IL and 66 on evening. While I'm talking about IL on the evening 11 should be a HOT pair it has only been out twice this year on evening and it averages about 20 times a year. In TN 33 is due on midday and 77 is due on evening.

                I hope someone listened to me about 99 in IL.

                I love doubles and remember, it's just a game!!!!!!

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                  Posted: July 5, 2007, 10:31 am - IP Logged

                  As long as the game is relatively the same. It doesn't make sense for example for me to backtest Mega to when there were 52 wb 52 bb, because some of the predictions would be unplayable. It also depends on how often a game is drawn; 6 months is nothing for MM or PB but can be more than enough for daily Pickits. There is no easy way to figure out when trends change.

                    Thoth's avatar - binary
                    Findlay, Ohio
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                    May 28, 2004
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                    Posted: July 6, 2007, 12:46 am - IP Logged

                    I usually backtest a "system" or strategy throughout the entire draw histories of every state that I have (I'm talking Pick-3 here).  Normally, you can calculate the probability of a system hitting before you even start the backtest.  The success rate of every system normaly performs very close to its true overall probability over the long term.  Finding a system that way over performs its probability in every (or most) states would indicate a true odds-breaking system.....so far, I've found none. 

                    ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                      KyMystikal's avatar - 1457224010054
                      Florence, Alabama
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                      November 13, 2004
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                      Posted: July 6, 2007, 1:06 am - IP Logged

                      I don't believe in a certain numbers triggering something to fall. I believe in statistics, for instance a double 4 should fall on the KY midday pick 3 this week and a double 3 will fall on KY evening. A double 7 should fall in IL this month and it could even be 777. I'd play 99 on midday in IL and 66 on evening. While I'm talking about IL on the evening 11 should be a HOT pair it has only been out twice this year on evening and it averages about 20 times a year. In TN 33 is due on midday and 77 is due on evening.

                      there's the 77's in TN 7/05 - 977. double 0's are next

                      I love doubles and remember, it's just a game!!!!!!