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What % of Straights repeat each year?

Topic closed. 5 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Thoth.

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doodoohead's avatar - bioresonance therapy.jpg

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Posted: May 27, 2007, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

On average what % of Straights repeat each year?

Only 36 % of the 1000 numbers get a chance to hit each year anyway.

 Of those 365 hits what % are repeat straights? 

  What's your guess? Blue Thinking Idea

      1. Less than 5%

      2. Less than 2.5% 

      3. Less than  1% 

If you want something you have never had, then you have to do something you have never done. 

    lacie's avatar - radar
    jacksonville, fl.
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    August 3, 2005
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    Posted: May 27, 2007, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

    On average what % of Straights repeat each year?

    Only 36 % of the 1000 numbers get a chance to hit each year anyway.

     Of those 365 hits what % are repeat straights? 

      What's your guess? Blue Thinking Idea

          1. Less than 5%

          2. Less than 2.5% 

          3. Less than  1% 

    I'd say that It's less than 5% but more than 1%.

      Avatar
      NY
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      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
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      Posted: May 28, 2007, 1:16 am - IP Logged

      All 100% of the possible numbers will get a chance to hit every time there's a drawing. Assuming 365 drawings per year the maximum number of the 1000 numbers that could be drawn is 365 or 36.5%. Of course that could only happen if there were no repeats at all, which is extremely unlikely (far less than 1 in a trillion, FWIW).

      For a simplified version of what is likely, let's assume there is only one drawing per day and that there are no repeats during the first 100 drawings. At  that point  10% of the 1000 possible numbers will have been drawn, and we can expect that 10%, or 11 of the next 111  drawings will repeat one of the first 100. 200 of the 1000 possible numbers would have been drawn and there would be 11 repeats. We would then expect 20%, or 33 (really 32.8, but we know that can't happen) of the next 164 drawings to repeat one of the 200 numbers that had already been drawn. That would give us a total of 44 repeats in 365 drawings, which is roughly 12%. The actual number of repeats would likely be a bit higher.

        doodoohead's avatar - bioresonance therapy.jpg

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        Posted: May 28, 2007, 11:30 am - IP Logged

        All 100% of the possible numbers will get a chance to hit every time there's a drawing. Assuming 365 drawings per year the maximum number of the 1000 numbers that could be drawn is 365 or 36.5%. Of course that could only happen if there were no repeats at all, which is extremely unlikely (far less than 1 in a trillion, FWIW).

        For a simplified version of what is likely, let's assume there is only one drawing per day and that there are no repeats during the first 100 drawings. At  that point  10% of the 1000 possible numbers will have been drawn, and we can expect that 10%, or 11 of the next 111  drawings will repeat one of the first 100. 200 of the 1000 possible numbers would have been drawn and there would be 11 repeats. We would then expect 20%, or 33 (really 32.8, but we know that can't happen) of the next 164 drawings to repeat one of the 200 numbers that had already been drawn. That would give us a total of 44 repeats in 365 drawings, which is roughly 12%. The actual number of repeats would likely be a bit higher.

        That was great. Thanks KY Floyd.

        Trying to figure an advantage to using those past Straights over say, just picking 100 random straights that are un-hit so far.

        My mind is heating up on that sliding scale as the year progresses along. Seems there might be some clear advantage in using the already hit Straights over the random un-hit straight picks.

        Just using a random 100 straights (as an example) from one of the 10 columns of 1000 we could expect only an average of 10% hit rate. Not as good as the 12+%  already hit list of 100.

        Trying to wrap my brain around that difference. Is it a real opening or am I reading it the wrong way? 

        If you want something you have never had, then you have to do something you have never done. 

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          NY
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          Posted: May 30, 2007, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

          That was great. Thanks KY Floyd.

          Trying to figure an advantage to using those past Straights over say, just picking 100 random straights that are un-hit so far.

          My mind is heating up on that sliding scale as the year progresses along. Seems there might be some clear advantage in using the already hit Straights over the random un-hit straight picks.

          Just using a random 100 straights (as an example) from one of the 10 columns of 1000 we could expect only an average of 10% hit rate. Not as good as the 12+%  already hit list of 100.

          Trying to wrap my brain around that difference. Is it a real opening or am I reading it the wrong way? 

          Repeating numbers is a simple probability that we should expect, so assuming you accept that the results are essentially random, there is no advantage to using past repeats. If a particular number turns up much more often that is expected it's possible that it really is more likely to be drawn for some reason, but that sort of thing also happens due to the normal workings of random events and simple probability.

            Thoth's avatar - binary
            Findlay, Ohio
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            May 28, 2004
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            Posted: June 1, 2007, 12:14 am - IP Logged

            In 365 Pick 3 draws there should be right around 59 repeats.  Most of those will be 2nd time hitters and a few will be three or more time hitters.

            ~Probability=Odds in Motion~