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You make the call...

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Coin Toss.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
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Posted: May 27, 2007, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

I'm on a Yahoo group that addresses problem gamblers.

Recently, someone on the group posted this:

 If there are 40 balls and 6 are chosen, 40 possible numbers can

come up first, leaving 39 that can come up second, then 38, 37, 36, and
35 on the final number. To find out how many numbers that is, multiply
40×39 ×38 ×37 ×36 × 35 = 2,763,633,600,making the odds
2,500,000,000 to 1.

 

So I replied to that:

That's not quite right. In games more than 40 balls to choose from

the odds are nowhere near what you posted.
In Mega Millions (a 5 + 1 game) they are over 176,000,000 to one,
but not in the billions. 

 

So they replied:

Although you're assessment of the odds maybe correct, we're a site

dedicated to helping compulsive gamblers. Suggesting better odds even
if still unbeatable, isn't a good message to send. That's why as one
of the moderators of this site I've decided not to allow post through
to the board.

 

The way I see it, all she did was blow her credibility. What do you guys say?

 

 

 


Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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    NASHVILLE, TENN
    United States
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    February 20, 2006
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    Posted: May 27, 2007, 8:43 pm - IP Logged

    The purpose of that site is to help gamblers rid themselves of a terrible addiction; not to help them win the lotory.  To that end, I have no problem with the way that site calculates the "odds".

    Not too long ago, I had a private conversation with another member on LP about this very same concept.  While there may be 3,838,380 possible combinations they are still that; combinations.

    With that in mind ( combinations ) the fact is we are guessing not once but 6 times and each guess must be correct in order to win.  Forgetting about the math for the moment, how many of us can guess anything correct six times in a row?  Certainly not I. 

    Perhaps that site has a better perspective on the chances of winning the big one than any of us.  At the very minimum I feel that site is closer to the truth than any of us would like to admit.

    So I am now thinking there has to be a way to reduce the number of guesses to three.  Guess right three times in a row and "YOU WIN!!" 

    Just my opinion.  I would add "and it should be yours" but that might sound pompous.

      Avatar
      NY
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      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
      3474 Posts
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      Posted: May 28, 2007, 3:04 am - IP Logged

      "The way I see it, all she did was blow her credibility."

      I agree. If you can't be accurate about a simple factual matter when somebody has offered a correction, why should anything else you say be considered reliable?

        Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
        Wisconsin
        United States
        Member #1303
        March 27, 2003
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        Posted: May 28, 2007, 9:00 am - IP Logged

        "The way I see it, all she did was blow her credibility."

        I agree. If you can't be accurate about a simple factual matter when somebody has offered a correction, why should anything else you say be considered reliable?

        I Agree! If the person that is trying to "help" you is giving you false information, or skewing it to get you to think a certain way, then that person is no help and not to be trusted.  And what you need in a case like that is someone who can be trusted.

        Not to mention that 176 million to one odds are gigantic enough as it is.....

        ============

        How can you tell if a politician is lying?

        Answer: His lips are moving.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Member #30470
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          Posted: May 28, 2007, 10:21 am - IP Logged

          Gasmeterguy

          Thanks for replying!

          KY Floyd, Badger

          That's what I was thinking. Let's say that someone she counsels bumps into a lottery player and her 2.5 billion to one odds come up. The lottery player tells the person, "Look, she doesn't know what she's talking about" and then shows them the back of a playslip with the posted odds, or tells them how to figure them.

          The person would indeed be convinced that she doesn't know what she's talking about.

          And Badger, you have a point (and I tried to tell her this), stating thatit's "only" 176 million and not 2.5 billion is hardly saying, "So it's really easier than you thnk".

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            justxploring's avatar - villiarna
            Wandering Aimlessly
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            Posted: May 28, 2007, 10:33 am - IP Logged

            I agree with both you and the moderator, Coin Toss, although I always will side with the truth since I believe in giving accurate information to help people.  However, this reminds me of the discussion about cutting the odds in half by purchasing a second ticket.  I completely understand why others argue that it's true.  We're just looking at it differently. To me it is clear that a player buying a ticket for a game with odds of 1:100M isn't really better off spending another 2 or three dollars.  So now he has 2 chances out of 100M.  By getting 2 tickets instead of just one, it makes so little difference when playing a jackpot game like PB, MM that the difference, to me, is insignificant. 

            On the other hand, I don't believe in blocking posts unless they are harmful or abusive.  The moderator could have simply answered you on the board to make his point. 

            (Edit:  I was typing while you were typing, so this was written before you posted above.)

              justxploring's avatar - villiarna
              Wandering Aimlessly
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              Posted: May 28, 2007, 10:51 am - IP Logged

              I thought this would be better sent in a PM, but rather than ask you if you feel you have a gambling problem, because it's none of my business, I'll just make this statement.

              Internet help groups are formed to help people.  Sounds very redundant, but I'll say it again.  LOL 

              People are attracted to these forums because they anonymously can discuss their addictions and feel safe.  So let's say I join a group for problem drinkers.  If I drink 1 cokkktail* or even a beer, it's usually lights out for me.  I can also drink a glass of wine every night for a week and then decide not to drink at all for a year. Okay?  So I see on this board a post that reads "If you want to stay straight and sober, you need to completely give up all alcohol and not even drink in moderation. Some of us might have to stay out of bars or other establishments where alcohol is served until we find inner peace."  I decide to get involved and write "Millions of people drink wine at dinner or socially at parties and it never affects their lives."  Both statements are true.  But what's my point and why am I there?

              Note:  the corrrect spelling of word c***tail is filtered

                jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                Harbinger
                D.C./MD.
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                Posted: May 28, 2007, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                These are the type of people that will tell you fire can't melt steel, pi is of apple, blueberry, etc..  mathematically or factually challenged people are everywhere.  Here is an odds explanation that is pretty good that moderator left out the reduction of the set size. This is off a lottery math site discussing whether it is better to spend $50 on 1 game or $1 on 50 games.

                The odds of a "Lotto" style lottery can be found with the formula: n! / (n - r)! r! where n is the highest numbered ball and r is the number of balls chosen. This is called in math a combination. An easier way to think about it is if there are 40 balls and 6 are chosen, there are 40 possible numbers that can come up first, leaving 39 that can come up second, then 38, 37, 36, and finally 35 on the final number. To find out how many numbers that is you multiply 40 ×39 ×38 ×37 ×36 × 35 = 2,763,633,600 making the odds 2 and a half billion to one.

                Pretty slim odds, but luckily the order of the balls does not matter, so we can divide this number by how many ways these numbers can be arranged. There are six possibilities for the first ball, five for the second, 4 for the third, 3, 2, and one left over. That is 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 720 So, the odds are 2,763,633,600 ÷ 720 = 3,838,380 to one.

                If I put $50 on one lottery, the odds of winning are 3,838,380 ÷ 50 = 76767.6 to one. That is the easy part.

                The hard part is calculating the odds of winning if I put $1 on 50 lotteries. To do this we have to convert to probabilities. A probability is a number between 1 and 0. 1 means a perfect chance, 0 means no chance at all. The probability of winning the lottery with one dollar is 1 ÷ 3,838,380 = 0.0000002605... in other words, very small. The probability of winning the lottery with 50 dollars is 1 ÷ 76767.6 = 0.0000130263288...

                Just for your information, the probability of winning twice in a row is this number squared which is 0.00000000000006. This is not very useful information except that we can use this formula in reverse to get what we want. The cool thing about probabilities, as opposed to odds, is that the probability of winning is one minus the probability of losing. This leads us to a way of calculating what we want by using a double negative. The probability of winning at least once in 50 tries is the same as the probability of not losing 50 times in a row.

                The probability of losing is 1 - 0.0000002605... = 0.9999997394...

                The probability of losing 50 times in a row is 0.9999997394... to the 50th power = 0.99998697...

                The probability of not losing 50 times in a row is 1 - 0.99998697... = 0.0000130262457...

                So, since the probability of winning at least once in 50 tries is 0.0000130262457... and the probability of winning one lottery with 50 dollars is 0.0000130263288... The odds are very very slightly more favorable by playing all 50 dollars in one lottery than spreading it out among 50 lotteries.

                here is the link: http://members.cox.net/mathmistakes/rawdata.htm

                  Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                  FEMA Region V Camp #21
                  United States
                  Member #520
                  July 27, 2002
                  5699 Posts
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                  Posted: May 28, 2007, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                  I'm on a Yahoo group that addresses problem gamblers.

                  Recently, someone on the group posted this:

                   If there are 40 balls and 6 are chosen, 40 possible numbers can

                  come up first, leaving 39 that can come up second, then 38, 37, 36, and
                  35 on the final number. To find out how many numbers that is, multiply
                  40×39 ×38 ×37 ×36 × 35 = 2,763,633,600,making the odds
                  2,500,000,000 to 1.

                   

                  So I replied to that:

                  That's not quite right. In games more than 40 balls to choose from

                  the odds are nowhere near what you posted.
                  In Mega Millions (a 5 + 1 game) they are over 176,000,000 to one,
                  but not in the billions. 

                   

                  So they replied:

                  Although you're assessment of the odds maybe correct, we're a site

                  dedicated to helping compulsive gamblers. Suggesting better odds even
                  if still unbeatable, isn't a good message to send. That's why as one
                  of the moderators of this site I've decided not to allow post through
                  to the board.

                   

                  The way I see it, all she did was blow her credibility. What do you guys say?

                   

                   

                   


                  Coin Toss,

                  I agree with you 1000%.  The person responding to you is being dishonest and has no business being a moderator of any forum regardless of the topic or agenda being pushed.

                  Dishonesty is not the right approach to ANY problem we face in life.

                  Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10345 Posts
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                    Posted: May 28, 2007, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

                    RickG

                    That's exactly what I'm thinking. If she is telling me somethin like that, and then I find out it is so far from being accurate that it's silly, I'm going to be asking myself ehat other kind of bunk is she pedaling?

                    PS folks:

                    I'm on that group since I had many years of casino work and am trying to give them info from "inside the pit".

                    I tried for a long time to get casinos to address problem gambling but the only think I ever saw was a 3" X 5" placard with the 1-800-GAMBLER number on the top deck of a boat (had the least traffice of all the decks).

                    Casinos underestimate the percentage of problem gamblers, but the anti-gambling factionsoverestimate the percentage of problemgamblers there are. Doesn't do much for either side's credibility.

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.