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How Long Will It Be Until We Have A Lotto Billionaire ?

Topic closed. 44 replies. Last post 10 years ago by pacattack05.

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lacie's avatar - radar
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Posted: June 2, 2007, 11:17 am - IP Logged

In what Year do you think Someone will win A Billion Dollars. Next Year , 2008, 2010, 2015.

Its going to happen some day.

I hope its me.Banana

    justxploring's avatar - villiarna
    Wandering Aimlessly
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    Posted: June 2, 2007, 12:24 pm - IP Logged

    Never.  I'm not one of the math analysts on this board, but IMHO I think the odds for such a game would have to be too high.  Players would get discouraged.  Even the PB and MM jackpots haven't reached 1/2 billion and they're nearly impossible to hit.   Don't you think a game with odds of 140 or 175 million to one are hard enough to win? 

    Actually, my last statement doesn't even make sense to me.  1 in 100 million, 1 in 200 million, 1 in 300 million..what difference does it make? 

      lacie's avatar - radar
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      Posted: June 2, 2007, 2:38 pm - IP Logged

      Never.  I'm not one of the math analysts on this board, but IMHO I think the odds for such a game would have to be too high.  Players would get discouraged.  Even the PB and MM jackpots haven't reached 1/2 billion and they're nearly impossible to hit.   Don't you think a game with odds of 140 or 175 million to one are hard enough to win? 

      Actually, my last statement doesn't even make sense to me.  1 in 100 million, 1 in 200 million, 1 in 300 million..what difference does it make? 

      Well I'm not sure that A lotto of this size would Include Just a few states. I think it would be more along the line of a national Lottery.

      It would Include all of the states and most Likely more numbers to play with and more numbers to win with. As you say the odds would be huge but so is the payout. I think it would turn into a feeding frenzy as It closed in on a billion or went over the billion dollar mark.

      I was thinking that maybe they would raise the price of a ticket, but with so many people playing they most likely would not have to.

      Anyway, I not sure that never is right, but I wonder when?

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: June 2, 2007, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

        Never.  I'm not one of the math analysts on this board, but IMHO I think the odds for such a game would have to be too high.  Players would get discouraged.  Even the PB and MM jackpots haven't reached 1/2 billion and they're nearly impossible to hit.   Don't you think a game with odds of 140 or 175 million to one are hard enough to win? 

        Actually, my last statement doesn't even make sense to me.  1 in 100 million, 1 in 200 million, 1 in 300 million..what difference does it make? 

        The Ohio Classic Lotto's odds are 1 in 14 million (6/49) and it took 56 draws before the jackpot reached $14 million, but in the last huge Mega Millions jackpot, it took only 13 draws before the jackpot reached $175 million. In one of our forums somebody gives the actual percentages of the jackpot being hit based on the amount.  When the $390 million jackpot was hit, I believe they sold 212 million tickets and there were two jackpot winners.

        To get "a lotto billionaire", about $2 billion would have to wagered and there could only be one winner so under the present matrix, it's highly unlikely.

          justxploring's avatar - villiarna
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          Posted: June 2, 2007, 3:02 pm - IP Logged

          Well I'm not sure that A lotto of this size would Include Just a few states. I think it would be more along the line of a national Lottery.

          It would Include all of the states and most Likely more numbers to play with and more numbers to win with. As you say the odds would be huge but so is the payout. I think it would turn into a feeding frenzy as It closed in on a billion or went over the billion dollar mark.

          I was thinking that maybe they would raise the price of a ticket, but with so many people playing they most likely would not have to.

          Anyway, I not sure that never is right, but I wonder when?

          I agree with Stack's post.  But to respond to this comment - you might be correct about a large number of people who are only interested in the jackpot amount.  However, when does next to impossible become impossible?  As Stack pointed out, when there are so many people buying tickets, it only increase the chances that someone will win.  So I don't think it will ever get to a billion.  I guess I'm only being redudant by posting this, but I will never understand why someone would get much more excited about the possibility of winning a billion dollars than $300 million.  In MM where there are 26 annual payments, that's over $11,500 every year.  Since I worked for a company for over 20 years that paid me by the month, I have a habit of thinking of everything in months instead of weeks or years.  So that's about $960K a month less taxes.   

          I also think if more numbers are added to increase the matrix, many players will discontinue buying MM or PB tickets, especially if they've been playing for years.  Regarding a $2 or higher ticket, I can't say for other players, but I would never spend more than a dollar on one ticket for a game with such high odds of winning. 

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: June 2, 2007, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

            Well I'm not sure that A lotto of this size would Include Just a few states. I think it would be more along the line of a national Lottery.

            It would Include all of the states and most Likely more numbers to play with and more numbers to win with. As you say the odds would be huge but so is the payout. I think it would turn into a feeding frenzy as It closed in on a billion or went over the billion dollar mark.

            I was thinking that maybe they would raise the price of a ticket, but with so many people playing they most likely would not have to.

            Anyway, I not sure that never is right, but I wonder when?

            "I was thinking that maybe they would raise the price of a ticket, but with so many people playing they most likely would not have to."

            At a buck a ticket the overall odds of winning any Mega Million prize is 1 in 40 and the odds of only winning $150 is 1 in 13,781 so do you really think people will play a game where there are less chances to win?

            "Anyway, I not sure that never is right, but I wonder when?"

            More and more states are offering raffles that have multiple $1 million winners and are selling them quickly. The scratch-off sales are over 60% of all lottery sales. Just to get to a $1 billion jackpot, they would need about $2 billion in ticket sales so the question really is will people stop playing raffles, the other online games, and scratch-offs to play that?

              lacie's avatar - radar
              jacksonville, fl.
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              Posted: June 2, 2007, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

              Something is wrong with the math as I see it.

              If the lottery gave away 390 million and only 212 million people played, It seems to me that they must have lost 178 million, which I don't think really happened.

              So this would seem to me that There must have been around 800 million that would have most likely have played the game. this is with a small number of states involved in this game. I don't know how many states are actually Involved.

              But it  seems to me if you have all of the states Involved, 2 Billion people playing the game would not be out of reach.

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                Sunny California
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                Posted: June 2, 2007, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

                I don't believe it will happen. Like JustX said,these games haven't even reached the 1/2 billion dollar mark,no where near it as far as I can remember. Wasn't the biggest jackpot ever only around 300 or so million? Wasn't it PB?

                Lacie,you mentioned "2 Billion people playing the game would not be out of reach"? Is this internationally speaking? Because last I heard the good old USA just broke 300 million.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: June 2, 2007, 4:33 pm - IP Logged

                  Something is wrong with the math as I see it.

                  If the lottery gave away 390 million and only 212 million people played, It seems to me that they must have lost 178 million, which I don't think really happened.

                  So this would seem to me that There must have been around 800 million that would have most likely have played the game. this is with a small number of states involved in this game. I don't know how many states are actually Involved.

                  But it  seems to me if you have all of the states Involved, 2 Billion people playing the game would not be out of reach.

                  "If the lottery gave away 390 million and only 212 million people played, It seems to me that they must have lost 178 million, which I don't think really happened."

                  It took 16 draws to reach the $390 million jackpot and $212 million was wagered on that draw alone.

                  "But it  seems to me if you have all of the states Involved, 2 Billion people playing the game would not be out of reach."

                  Does that include Utah?

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                    Posted: June 2, 2007, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

                    Something is wrong with the math as I see it.

                    If the lottery gave away 390 million and only 212 million people played, It seems to me that they must have lost 178 million, which I don't think really happened.

                    So this would seem to me that There must have been around 800 million that would have most likely have played the game. this is with a small number of states involved in this game. I don't know how many states are actually Involved.

                    But it  seems to me if you have all of the states Involved, 2 Billion people playing the game would not be out of reach.

                    1. When a lottery has a $390 jackpot what it really has is $190M cash if invested wisely for 25 plus years could yield $390M.

                    2. The $190 cash were the results of millions of players playing and losing over a period of two months.

                    3. The drawing that finally had the two winners sold 212M tickets which was probably a record for ticket sales for one drawing, the total number of tickets sold for all the drawings leading up to that winning one was probably 10 times that.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                      Posted: June 2, 2007, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

                      As the games stand now, I don't see a billion dollar jackpot happening (as others have mentioned in this thread).

                      Given the same games, and since matrixes expand and expand, jackpots just get more elusive.

                      The thought of a national lotto is nice, but it would probably kill off at least PB and MM - unless they merged (so to speak) to operate it.

                      Maybe if all this talk of a North American Union happens, someone will win 1,000,000,000,000 "ameros" but if that happens we'll be living under socialist tyrants and the winner probably wouldn't see most of the jackpot money anyway - if there were still lotteries at all. (Socilaists would have to abolish them to be good socialists, no?)

                      Bang Head

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                        lacie's avatar - radar
                        jacksonville, fl.
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                        Posted: June 2, 2007, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm starting to mix apples and oranges and thats not where I wanted to go.

                        What I was trying to say, very poorly I might add, is that If a lottery game here in america could award a 390 million prize to someone they must have taken in 780 million dollars to be able to award this amount of prize money to someone. Because I was under the Impression that the winner or winners got 50% of the gross amount and the lottery kept the other 50%.

                        So if 780 million could be raised by a few states and not all of the states, Doesn't it seem plausible that if you add all the other states into the Equation that coming up with 2 Billion is not that much of a stretch.

                        I could be 100% wrong on this subject but thats why I asked the question to have you all share your views and show me where I'm going wrong. this, after all, is just a "what If" question that I wanted to explore.

                          lacie's avatar - radar
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                          Posted: June 2, 2007, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                          Thank you RJOH, You have answered my Question. I had forgotten about  the 390 million being yours if you took the money over a period of years and not all at once.

                          This skewed my estimate as to how much money was taken in and the number of players that would end up betting.

                          I must say in order to become a Billionaire playing the lottery someone would have to come up with a completely different game than we have today.

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                            Posted: June 2, 2007, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                            I don't know, but hopfuly it is me. :D I'll send you a post card from Tahiti when it happends! Cheers

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                              Posted: June 3, 2007, 2:44 am - IP Logged

                              How about, 2050, at the earliest, if ever.

                              (insert signature here)