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Why states go RNG drawings

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Todd.

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JAP69's avatar - alas
South Carolina
United States
Member #6
November 4, 2001
8790 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 26, 2007, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

This is my opinion why states go rng.

It is based on payout figures.

The pari mutel payout is no problem here.

What I think they are doing is tracking the payout in the pick3 and 4 games.
The more savvy the players become in picking the numbers the higher the payout becomes compared to what is wagered.

Going rng in the 3 and 4 game could throw all tracking stats to the wind as the rng draws are supposedly more random.

They say it is to cut costs to the lottery.

Cutting payout figures could be the primary reason.

They will go rng in all the games to cover the primary reason of the payouts in the 3 and 4 games.

WHATT

    LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
    Tennessee
    United States
    Member #7853
    October 15, 2004
    11338 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 26, 2007, 11:14 pm - IP Logged

    your right.i bet there are a few people hitting a pick 4 straight 10 times for 50,000 dollars.do that regular and it will affect the lottery bottom line.i know i've heard a rumor some person bet twenty bucks here and won a hundred grand and tennessee would not put it on the website.why?  well they didn't want it to happen again.stupid.now virginia if you look on their website you see people hitting pick 4 for a hundred ot two hundred grand all the time.props to virginia.to tennessee i say a big thumbs down.they wimped out on us.

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      United States
      Member #1826
      July 11, 2003
      2645 Posts
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      Posted: July 26, 2007, 11:55 pm - IP Logged

      Most lotteries, if not all, install computers because they are cheaper, by tens of thousands of dollars.

      They, with the possible exception of Indiana, had and have no intention of manipulating results.

      They know that the diehard, 100-quick-picks-at-a-time players don't care how it's drawn, and that's the only players they really care about because they make them the most money.

      All lottery directors need is the feeling that the computers are secure and fair, apparently few lottery directors believe transparency is as a necessary part, if a necessary part at all, of lottery drawings.

      They think that the only people who care about the draw method are system players, people who they don't want playing anyway (which doesn't make much sense to me, if every player played wheels, they'd make a mint).

      What they don't realize is that they are also many players who enjoy seeing the drawings. In states like Pennsylvania and New York, the drawings have become sort of an institution. And losing the players that enjoy watching the drawings can, and almost always, offsets any savings from going to a computerized drawing. And the sad part is, every lottery director who switched thinks "It won't happen here, they'll keep coming back." Well, I already know a few people who will be taking their money to Georgia and Kentucky after TN switches, and if they're willing to drive extra miles just to buy tickets, imagine how many will just *gasp* stop playing.

      (insert signature here)

        JAP69's avatar - alas
        South Carolina
        United States
        Member #6
        November 4, 2001
        8790 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 27, 2007, 12:10 am - IP Logged

        You are probably right about the states not wanting systems players.

        I pulled some stats from todays predictions to compare rng and ball drawn states to compare prediction stats.
        I did not take out pari mutel wins as they were of small amount of money.

        You can see in the stats the percentage comparison.


        Missouri rng
        Total predictions: 6,362
        Winning predictions: 30
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.47%
        Total simulated cost: $6,362.00
        Total simulated prizes: $1,955.00
        Prize Ratio: 30.73%

        south Carolina ball
        Total predictions: 6,133
        Winning predictions: 44
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.72%
        Total simulated cost: $6,133.00
        Total simulated prizes: $7,440.00
        Prize Ratio: 121.31%

        oklahoma rng
        Total predictions: 1,701
        Winning predictions: 12
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.71%
        Total simulated cost: $1,701.00
        Total simulated prizes: $750.00
        Prize Ratio: 44.09%

        Georgia ball
        Total predictions: 6,194
        Winning predictions: 15
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.24%
        Total simulated cost: $6,194.00
        Total simulated prizes: $6,010.00
        Prize Ratio: 97.03%

        California rng
        Total predictions: 3,889
        Winning predictions: 44
        Winning predictions percentage: 1.13%
        Total simulated cost: $3,889.00
        Total simulated prizes: $2,467.00
        Prize Ratio: 63.44%

        New york ball
        Total predictions: 6,356
        Winning predictions: 47
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.74%
        Total simulated cost: $6,356.00
        Total simulated prizes: $4,676.00
        Prize Ratio: 73.57%

        Indiana rng
        Total predictions: 6,371
        Winning predictions: 46
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.72%
        Total simulated cost: $6,371.00
        Total simulated prizes: $2,475.00
        Prize Ratio: 38.85%

        Florida ball
        Total predictions: 3,338
        Winning predictions: 53
        Winning predictions percentage: 1.59%
        Total simulated cost: $3,338.00
        Total simulated prizes: $2,900.00
        Prize Ratio: 86.88%

        Louisianna rng
        Total predictions: 2,995
        Winning predictions: 26
        Winning predictions percentage: 0.87%
        Total simulated cost: $2,936.00
        Total simulated prizes: $1,250.00
        Prize Ratio: 42.57%

        WHATT

          Avatar

          United States
          Member #1826
          July 11, 2003
          2645 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 27, 2007, 12:42 am - IP Logged

          Um, JAP69, Oklahoma is ball drawn, if you can believe it.

          (insert signature here)

            Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
            Wisconsin
            United States
            Member #1303
            March 27, 2003
            1508 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 27, 2007, 7:53 am - IP Logged

            This is my opinion why states go rng.

            It is based on payout figures.

            The pari mutel payout is no problem here.

            What I think they are doing is tracking the payout in the pick3 and 4 games.
            The more savvy the players become in picking the numbers the higher the payout becomes compared to what is wagered.

            Going rng in the 3 and 4 game could throw all tracking stats to the wind as the rng draws are supposedly more random.

            They say it is to cut costs to the lottery.

            Cutting payout figures could be the primary reason.

            They will go rng in all the games to cover the primary reason of the payouts in the 3 and 4 games.

            • I follow what you're saying. But in WI at least, I don't think that's why they went to RNG.
            • The amount they have to pay out for P3 and P4 usually is pretty meager. Below are the
            • latest figures from their website.  Thing is, while they post their pay outs, they never
            • post (that I can find) the number of tickets that were sold each day.  From what I see in
            • the stores, they a fair amount of tickets for P3, quite less for P4. In any case, I think they
            • make a nice profit on the daily games, based upon the amount they typically have to pay
            • out.
            Pick 3 Winners
            for 7/25/2007


            PRIZE TYPENUMBERAMOUNTTOTAL PAID
            STRAIGHT22 $ 250$ 5,500
            BOX 6258 $ 40$ 10,320
            BOX 30 $ 80$ 0
            STR/BOX 612 $ 290$ 3,480
            STR/BOX 30 $ 330$ 0
                
            Pick 4 Winners
            for 7/25/2007

            PRIZE TYPENUMBERAMOUNTTOTAL PAID
            STRAIGHT0 $ 2,500$ 0
            BOX 240 $ 100$ 0
            BOX 1252 $ 200$ 10,400
            BOX 60 $ 400$ 0
            BOX 40 $ 600$ 0
                

            ============

            How can you tell if a politician is lying?

            Answer: His lips are moving.

              LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
              Tennessee
              United States
              Member #7853
              October 15, 2004
              11338 Posts
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              Posted: July 27, 2007, 8:02 am - IP Logged

              Thinking of...,not ONE single pick 4 straight winner in the whole state of wisconsin?     wait until losingjeff heres this.indiana you ain't alone.i'm VERY interested to see if tennessee keeps posting out how much is won each day like they have been doing.if they stop then we will know something fishy is happening.

                Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                Wisconsin
                United States
                Member #1303
                March 27, 2003
                1508 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 27, 2007, 8:05 am - IP Logged

                Most lotteries, if not all, install computers because they are cheaper, by tens of thousands of dollars.

                They, with the possible exception of Indiana, had and have no intention of manipulating results.

                They know that the diehard, 100-quick-picks-at-a-time players don't care how it's drawn, and that's the only players they really care about because they make them the most money.

                All lottery directors need is the feeling that the computers are secure and fair, apparently few lottery directors believe transparency is as a necessary part, if a necessary part at all, of lottery drawings.

                They think that the only people who care about the draw method are system players, people who they don't want playing anyway (which doesn't make much sense to me, if every player played wheels, they'd make a mint).

                What they don't realize is that they are also many players who enjoy seeing the drawings. In states like Pennsylvania and New York, the drawings have become sort of an institution. And losing the players that enjoy watching the drawings can, and almost always, offsets any savings from going to a computerized drawing. And the sad part is, every lottery director who switched thinks "It won't happen here, they'll keep coming back." Well, I already know a few people who will be taking their money to Georgia and Kentucky after TN switches, and if they're willing to drive extra miles just to buy tickets, imagine how many will just *gasp* stop playing.

                You make some good points.  I would bet though, that in the majority of states, most of the players don't have an option of driving over the border to play in a non-RNG state.  I live only 35 miles from the ILL border, but eveni f I had the time to do so, the cost of driving there and back, with gas, wear and tear on the car, etc. makes it a losing proposition anyway. 

                I'm not sure that the LC's are "afraid" of system players. They probably would prefer not to have them play, but I doubt there are that many of those players that actually make a profit on the daily games in any case.  SO the LC wouldn't lose much on those players. It may even be quite the opposite. Most system players seem to "hit" occasionally only by playing large amounts of combos. Again, hitting winners does not a profit make.  I seriously doubt that there are very many players with systems that allow for them to hit a couple of times a week playing 10 or less combos a day. If there are many such (again, I doubt it after seeing all the methods/systems here for years on LP) then, yes, it could be a problem for the individual LCs.  But anyone playing on the street, betting 20 combos a day for $10 outlay, and hitting a box once a week (which is probably more than most players hit) is losing $30/week anyway, even though they make themselves feel good by thinking they are "winning" once a week..  That is much to the liking of the LC.

                ============

                How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                Answer: His lips are moving.

                  Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                  Wisconsin
                  United States
                  Member #1303
                  March 27, 2003
                  1508 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 27, 2007, 8:08 am - IP Logged

                  Thinking of...,not ONE single pick 4 straight winner in the whole state of wisconsin?     wait until losingjeff heres this.indiana you ain't alone.i'm VERY interested to see if tennessee keeps posting out how much is won each day like they have been doing.if they stop then we will know something fishy is happening.

                  I don't think there are many P4 straight tickets sold to begin with.  Just too tough to hit that game, LottoMike.  Most people play P3.  And even then, I seldom see anyone playing a P3 straight for a buck....it's always fifty cents, or a straight/box which is a buck, but you cover your.....<g>

                  ============

                  How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                  Answer: His lips are moving.

                    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                    Chief Bottle Washer
                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #1
                    May 31, 2000
                    23262 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: July 27, 2007, 8:30 am - IP Logged

                    Most lotteries, if not all, install computers because they are cheaper, by tens of thousands of dollars.

                    They, with the possible exception of Indiana, had and have no intention of manipulating results.

                    They know that the diehard, 100-quick-picks-at-a-time players don't care how it's drawn, and that's the only players they really care about because they make them the most money.

                    All lottery directors need is the feeling that the computers are secure and fair, apparently few lottery directors believe transparency is as a necessary part, if a necessary part at all, of lottery drawings.

                    They think that the only people who care about the draw method are system players, people who they don't want playing anyway (which doesn't make much sense to me, if every player played wheels, they'd make a mint).

                    What they don't realize is that they are also many players who enjoy seeing the drawings. In states like Pennsylvania and New York, the drawings have become sort of an institution. And losing the players that enjoy watching the drawings can, and almost always, offsets any savings from going to a computerized drawing. And the sad part is, every lottery director who switched thinks "It won't happen here, they'll keep coming back." Well, I already know a few people who will be taking their money to Georgia and Kentucky after TN switches, and if they're willing to drive extra miles just to buy tickets, imagine how many will just *gasp* stop playing.

                    Excellent points, I agree.  I think your conclusion is dead-on, and there are definitely people who will either stop playing, or who will play less.

                    These lottery directors in large part are not people who get their ideas from lottery players.  They get their ideas from (a) people who report to them and (b) the systems vendors. 

                    If you listened to both those types of people all the time, you would start to believe that computerized drawings are great too.  I have listened to the sales pitch from the manufacturers of the computerized drawing equipment, and they do spin a good tale.  It all sounds great:  extremely random results, intense security (much better than ball drawings!), low maintenance, reduced costs, flexibility. 

                    But the part they leave out (apart from being wrong on a few points) is that lottery players don't like them and don't want them.  The systems vendors conveniently leave that out when they talk up the "great" drawing system.  It can be the best drawing system in the world on paper, but if your customers don't like it, it's a non-starter.

                    So why are these lottery directors trying to ram this crap down our throats?  I believe they think all of us discussing this here don't represent the mainstream players.  But they are gravely mistaken.  We do.

                     

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