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Did you noticed that now, most of the hot predictors...

Topic closed. 15 replies. Last post 9 years ago by hypersoniq.

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Brazil
Member #51781
April 24, 2007
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Posted: August 12, 2007, 5:14 pm - IP Logged

are standard members?

Weird.

What do you think about it?

Even most of the top predictors by prize ratio are standard members ... Is this something to wonder about?  

    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
    Indiana
    United States
    Member #48725
    January 7, 2007
    1958 Posts
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    Posted: August 12, 2007, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

    are standard members?

    Weird.

    What do you think about it?

    Even most of the top predictors by prize ratio are standard members ... Is this something to wonder about?  

    Why is it something to wonder about?Confused

    Gonna win.Big Smile

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #1
      May 31, 2000
      23352 Posts
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      Posted: August 12, 2007, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

      are standard members?

      Weird.

      What do you think about it?

      Even most of the top predictors by prize ratio are standard members ... Is this something to wonder about?  

      Actually, this is factually wrong.

      Premium members make up only about 0.5% of the total number of members here, yet they account for 46% of the Top 50 hot predictors by prize ratio, and 54% of the Top 50 hot predictors by hit ratio.

      Now, that's only looking at the top-level summary.

      Most seasoned players know to look much deeper than that, by looking at stats at the game or state, or perhaps even by game within a state.  That's where the real nuggets of data are.

      Don't get so fixated on the top-level summary page, and don't draw too many conclusions from it.  The summary is only the starting point.

       

      Check the State Lottery Report Card
      What grade did your lottery earn?

       

      Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
      Help eliminate computerized drawings!

        four4me's avatar - gate1
        MD
        United States
        Member #1701
        June 18, 2003
        8395 Posts
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        Posted: August 12, 2007, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

        Why is it something to wonder about?Confused

        I agree with Guru101

        A new poster could post 10 picks for one draw and have the number come out in a draw and get in the top ten.

        predictions stats are based on the number of picks and quantity of picks that win.

        Some predictors only post a few picks every 30 days or so while other posters post thousands of picks every 30 days.

        Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                       I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19903 Posts
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          Posted: August 12, 2007, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

          I agree with Guru101

          A new poster could post 10 picks for one draw and have the number come out in a draw and get in the top ten.

          predictions stats are based on the number of picks and quantity of picks that win.

          Some predictors only post a few picks every 30 days or so while other posters post thousands of picks every 30 days.

        • To appear on the top predictors page, members must post at least 500 picks, and must have posted at least one pick in the last 60 days.
        •  * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            four4me's avatar - gate1
            MD
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            June 18, 2003
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            Posted: August 12, 2007, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

          • To appear on the top predictors page, members must post at least 500 picks, and must have posted at least one pick in the last 60 days.
          • Thanks RJOh i failed to mention that as i forgot too.

            But what i was getting at is their are posters who have posted large numbers of picks in the past and sat idle for 30 days then started posting picks again. So some of those posters picks may have won and their states over the 30 day period are improved.

            For me i tend to look at individual posters overall stats by clicking on their user name and checking their prediction statistics.

            I don't do comparisons unless my quantity of picks are near or equal to someone else's.

            Prediction statistics can be defined in many ways depending on whom does the observing and what they are trying to interpret.

              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
              Chief Bottle Washer
              New Jersey
              United States
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              May 31, 2000
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              Posted: August 12, 2007, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

              Thanks RJOh i failed to mention that as i forgot too.

              But what i was getting at is their are posters who have posted large numbers of picks in the past and sat idle for 30 days then started posting picks again. So some of those posters picks may have won and their states over the 30 day period are improved.

              For me i tend to look at individual posters overall stats by clicking on their user name and checking their prediction statistics.

              I don't do comparisons unless my quantity of picks are near or equal to someone else's.

              Prediction statistics can be defined in many ways depending on whom does the observing and what they are trying to interpret.

              These are all good points.  I knew when I created the stats summary page it could be interpreted in very simple, literal ways, which is not its intention.  The summary page does not necessarily show the best predictors.  It is a tangible measure of an intangible thing.  (Does that make sense?)

              Don't get me wrong; it is a mark of distinction to get onto the Top 10 of any of four categories.  But it is by no means a definitive measure of who is "best".

              I would also agree that the point about who is a standard member vs. premium member is irrelevant, although as I pointed out above, there is a disproportionately high number of premium members on the top lists.

               

              Check the State Lottery Report Card
              What grade did your lottery earn?

               

              Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
              Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
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                March 24, 2001
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                Posted: August 12, 2007, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

                are standard members?

                Weird.

                What do you think about it?

                Even most of the top predictors by prize ratio are standard members ... Is this something to wonder about?  

                I'm presently in the top ten of all four categories of the Predictors for All States, All Game Types which can be misleading.  30% or more of my latest predictions have been for West Virgina Cash25 which is a 625 games that is calculated on the board the same as any other  six numbers games of which most are 649 or larger. 

                Treating a game with 177,100 possible combinations the same as games with 13,983,816 possible combinations or more give the predictors of WV Cash25 a huge advantage when compared with predictors of other pick6 games.  There may be other similar situations on the board for other games but this is the one that helps me.  Todd in past posts has mentioned that such conditions will exist for convenience.

                To make a fair comparison of different predictors positions on the different boards, you have to look at a break down of all their predictions.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Avatar
                  NY
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                  Posted: August 13, 2007, 1:05 am - IP Logged

                  I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

                    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                    Chief Bottle Washer
                    New Jersey
                    United States
                    Member #1
                    May 31, 2000
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                    Posted: August 13, 2007, 1:12 am - IP Logged

                    I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

                    LOL Yes Nod Yeah, good point!

                     

                    Check the State Lottery Report Card
                    What grade did your lottery earn?

                     

                    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                      guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                      United States
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                      June 16, 2006
                      1969 Posts
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                      Posted: August 13, 2007, 3:04 am - IP Logged

                      I have 89 billion 'systems' (well, not quite THAT many..) but I found more than about 3 are too many. (one system to help me pick one number, another system for another number, a third system for a third number), and for the final 2 numbers - dart board/coin toss/guesswork.

                      I found something that helps me narrow down the Powerball quite a bit, but going from 42 to about 12 isn't a great value. 

                      I had one WB system that would give me a list of about 20-22 numbers that 'should' hit, and you know what ? There are times NONE of them hit, so I reversed it and used them as a 'Do Not Play' number, and I started doing well again. 

                      So what am I saying ?

                      Maybe sometimes we just try too hard.... 

                        spy153's avatar - maren

                        United States
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                        December 15, 2005
                        1198 Posts
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                        Posted: August 13, 2007, 9:37 am - IP Logged

                        I have 89 billion 'systems' (well, not quite THAT many..) but I found more than about 3 are too many. (one system to help me pick one number, another system for another number, a third system for a third number), and for the final 2 numbers - dart board/coin toss/guesswork.

                        I found something that helps me narrow down the Powerball quite a bit, but going from 42 to about 12 isn't a great value. 

                        I had one WB system that would give me a list of about 20-22 numbers that 'should' hit, and you know what ? There are times NONE of them hit, so I reversed it and used them as a 'Do Not Play' number, and I started doing well again. 

                        So what am I saying ?

                        Maybe sometimes we just try too hard.... 

                        i'm guilty of trying too hard.Wink

                        voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool


                          Brazil
                          Member #51781
                          April 24, 2007
                          384 Posts
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                          Posted: August 13, 2007, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

                          I'm presently in the top ten of all four categories of the Predictors for All States, All Game Types which can be misleading.  30% or more of my latest predictions have been for West Virgina Cash25 which is a 625 games that is calculated on the board the same as any other  six numbers games of which most are 649 or larger. 

                          Treating a game with 177,100 possible combinations the same as games with 13,983,816 possible combinations or more give the predictors of WV Cash25 a huge advantage when compared with predictors of other pick6 games.  There may be other similar situations on the board for other games but this is the one that helps me.  Todd in past posts has mentioned that such conditions will exist for convenience.

                          To make a fair comparison of different predictors positions on the different boards, you have to look at a break down of all their predictions.

                          Ok, tried the  West Virginia Cash 25.

                          10 trials. 

                          Winners: 

                          4 predictions, 3 of 6 for $5 each. 

                          The odds are similar to Keno games, even if the game is a six number game. Probably you are talking about the easy types of games, since this site use fixed amounts for the calculations of prize ratios there could be some distortions. The real prize is just $1, here it is listed as $5. Ok, this could serve as a compensation for those 2/5 losts on Pennsylvania Treasure Hunt games. There is a similar situation on 2by2 because of the positional numbers on the second pair. As for the general predictions, this would affect more the West Virginia predictors. Since some persons make a  analyze of games by state, this should not be a great problem.


                            United States
                            Member #16612
                            June 2, 2005
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                            Posted: August 16, 2007, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                            I'm not even close to becoming a hot predictor. I'm just not lucky at all.

                              justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                              Wandering Aimlessly
                              United States
                              Member #25360
                              November 5, 2005
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                              Posted: August 16, 2007, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm not even close to becoming a hot predictor. I'm just not lucky at all.

                               Maybe you are lucky at other things.

                               

                              I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

                               

                              I agree.  In fact, I'll bet real money that most of the standard members have 1 nose and most of the premium members have 2 ears.