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Powerball & Megamillions Growing

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Guru101.

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How far will these current jackpots reach?

$200,000,000 - Powerball [ 5 ]  [12.50%]
$300,000,000 - Powerball [ 19 ]  [47.50%]
$400,000,000 - Powerball [ 8 ]  [20.00%]
$200,000,000 - Megamillions [ 3 ]  [7.50%]
$300,000,000 - Megamillions [ 3 ]  [7.50%]
$400,000,000 - Megamillions [ 2 ]  [5.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 40 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 6 ]  
Avatar
New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: August 16, 2007, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

The annuity value is nonsense and so, in some sense, is the cash value.

What matters is the expectation value, which is the ratio of possible return to the odds of winning.

By this score, at equivalent cash values, the Powerball is always a better bet than MM, because the odds against winning MM are so much longer.

I have never chosen how to play on advertising.  Advertising is often a deliberate attempt to mislead.    The powerball annuity system is very misleading because the odds are very low that anyone will actually ever realize as much money as advertised, especially when things like inflation are factored in.  Powerball did not make itself more valuable by changing its annuity structure; in fact as it lengthened the odds at the same time it made itself less valuable.

I always look at the expectation value.

    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
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    Posted: August 19, 2007, 12:01 am - IP Logged

    Looks like both games survived. Powerball only needs to roll twice to reach it's cap or close to it. Megamillions needs to roll three times to get close to it's record.

    I still think Powerball will get hit on the 22nd and Mega won't last long either.

      joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

      United States
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      February 12, 2006
      698 Posts
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      Posted: August 19, 2007, 12:03 am - IP Logged

      pb

       245m

      $114,700,000 cash

      35% max tax taken into account

      no states taken into account 

      =74,555,000 Nice!

       
       

       

       

         
       

       

      thats the real jackpot

      not bad if i say so myself

      at this level,, if it keeps rolling

      we could see 290/300 million or damn close to it next roll

      this could get very interesting, if it then would it break the 365m cap

      or would it just be little lower then it, 

      that way, it wont trigger the cap for the next draw of 25 million, once past its old high,

      and we can easyly get 400m+  by more 3 rolls!

       

       

       

      i must say 3rds of 100million in real cash sure does make one  dreamBed

        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
        Indiana
        United States
        Member #48725
        January 7, 2007
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        Posted: August 19, 2007, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

        pb

         245m

        $114,700,000 cash

        35% max tax taken into account

        no states taken into account 

        =74,555,000 Nice!

         
         

         

         

           
         

         

        thats the real jackpot

        not bad if i say so myself

        at this level,, if it keeps rolling

        we could see 290/300 million or damn close to it next roll

        this could get very interesting, if it then would it break the 365m cap

        or would it just be little lower then it, 

        that way, it wont trigger the cap for the next draw of 25 million, once past its old high,

        and we can easyly get 400m+  by more 3 rolls!

         

         

         

        i must say 3rds of 100million in real cash sure does make one  dreamBed

        Well the recent jumps were:

        141-161 = +$20M

        161-181 = +$20M

        181-210 = +$29M

        210-245 = +$35M

        So I'm guessing it would roll to $290M. I think $400M+ is definitely possible. Looking at the next possible rolls:

        290-345

        345-400

        That's about a $185M cash value. Not too shabby if you ask me. I think I would take the annuity though.

        Gonna win.Big Smile

          Avatar
          NY
          United States
          Member #23835
          October 16, 2005
          3474 Posts
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          Posted: August 21, 2007, 12:32 am - IP Logged

          Why do you say PowerBall is capped at $390 million? Also, to say the PowerBall is capped isn't exactly correct, it's the increase that is capped. The increase cap is $25 million. The cap is only applied when the jackpot FIRST meets or exceeds the current record, which is $365 million. As you saw last night, the $181 million jackpot went up to $210 million. That's an increase of $29 million. If PowerBall comes a little short of the record(for example $350-$360 million), the increase won't be applied and could lead to a rollover of at least $400 million.

          "Looks like PB grows this round but I really doubt PB can get near it's current cap of $390 million or that MM will even reach $275 million."

          Also, by reading that statement, it's like you're saying the games somehow actively decide how much they will roll to. Games aren't people. The jackpot is either won or not. If the jackpot is won, you can't blame the game.

          You're confused about how the cap works. As you correctly note, the cap applies when the jackpot meets or exceeds the previous record of 365. If a couple of rolls pushes the advertised jackpot to anything over 300 or so the next jackpot will exceed 365. That means the cap will apply. That means the next jackpot can't be more than 390, though it could be less depending on the previous jackpot and sales.

            joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

            United States
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            Posted: August 21, 2007, 3:26 am - IP Logged

            You're confused about how the cap works. As you correctly note, the cap applies when the jackpot meets or exceeds the previous record of 365. If a couple of rolls pushes the advertised jackpot to anything over 300 or so the next jackpot will exceed 365. That means the cap will apply. That means the next jackpot can't be more than 390, though it could be less depending on the previous jackpot and sales.

            ky your the one thats mistaken

             

            lets say the jackpot keeps rolling

            and lets say it lands near 350m, 360m

            not past the old record of 365m

             

            IT CAN THEN GO ABOVE 365 AND NOT TIGGER THE CAP ON THAT ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            That Means we can easily get a 400+ million jackpot

             

            the cap LIMIT olny goes in to effect ON the next roll

            once it meet/past its old record

             

            to repeat my self> 

             

            in short, if it stops just short of the record, the next roll wont be capped AT ALL

            its olny the roll after it meets or  exceeds the record  does the cap come in to play.

            a cap of 25m growth cap! ON NEXT rolls!

            not the current roll that meeted or exceed the old record.

            with that said, i hope no one confused anymore.

              Avatar
              md
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              April 20, 2005
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              Posted: August 21, 2007, 10:24 am - IP Logged

              ky your the one thats mistaken

               

              lets say the jackpot keeps rolling

              and lets say it lands near 350m, 360m

              not past the old record of 365m

               

              IT CAN THEN GO ABOVE 365 AND NOT TIGGER THE CAP ON THAT ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

              That Means we can easily get a 400+ million jackpot

               

              the cap LIMIT olny goes in to effect ON the next roll

              once it meet/past its old record

               

              to repeat my self> 

               

              in short, if it stops just short of the record, the next roll wont be capped AT ALL

              its olny the roll after it meets or  exceeds the record  does the cap come in to play.

              a cap of 25m growth cap! ON NEXT rolls!

              not the current roll that meeted or exceed the old record.

              with that said, i hope no one confused anymore.

              Joshuacloak-

              You have explained the cap correctly!

                Avatar
                NY
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                October 16, 2005
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                Posted: August 21, 2007, 12:12 pm - IP Logged

                Joshuacloak-

                You have explained the cap correctly!

                Perhaps you and Joshua should call the folks at MUSL and let them know they applied the cap improperly when the jackpot went from 300 to 365  18 months ago.

                  Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                  Indiana
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                  Posted: August 21, 2007, 4:31 pm - IP Logged

                  Perhaps you and Joshua should call the folks at MUSL and let them know they applied the cap improperly when the jackpot went from 300 to 365  18 months ago.

                  What are you talking about? The previous record was $340M. $300M is not more than $340M. I don't think you get it. The jackpot has to FIRST meet or exceed the current record(which now is $365M) before ANY cap is applied. For example, if PB rolled to $290M and then rolled to $350M, the cap will not be applied because $350M is not greater than or equal to the current record of $365M. This would be a case where the jackpot could roll to $400M+. However, if it rolls to $300M then $370M, THEN the cap will be applied, so the highest it could roll to would be $395M.

                  Gonna win.Big Smile

                    Avatar
                    NY
                    United States
                    Member #23835
                    October 16, 2005
                    3474 Posts
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                    Posted: August 21, 2007, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                    What are you talking about? The previous record was $340M. $300M is not more than $340M. I don't think you get it. The jackpot has to FIRST meet or exceed the current record(which now is $365M) before ANY cap is applied. For example, if PB rolled to $290M and then rolled to $350M, the cap will not be applied because $350M is not greater than or equal to the current record of $365M. This would be a case where the jackpot could roll to $400M+. However, if it rolls to $300M then $370M, THEN the cap will be applied, so the highest it could roll to would be $395M.

                    I'm certain that some people don't get it. Why did the record increase exactly $25 million from 340 to 365, without offering a $340 million jackpot again?

                    In February  2006 the record was 340 million, and it rolled from 250 to 300. I'm pretty sure that  300 is less than 340, so at that time the jackpot hadn't exceeded the record. When nobody won the $300 million jackpotthe cap was applied and the jackpot only rolled to $365 million. Either you and a few others have it wrong or MUSL has it wrong.  Which one are you betting on?

                      Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                      Indiana
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                      Posted: August 21, 2007, 8:11 pm - IP Logged

                      I'm certain that some people don't get it. Why did the record increase exactly $25 million from 340 to 365, without offering a $340 million jackpot again?

                      In February  2006 the record was 340 million, and it rolled from 250 to 300. I'm pretty sure that  300 is less than 340, so at that time the jackpot hadn't exceeded the record. When nobody won the $300 million jackpotthe cap was applied and the jackpot only rolled to $365 million. Either you and a few others have it wrong or MUSL has it wrong.  Which one are you betting on?

                      No, you have it wrong. The 2 records, the $340M record and $365M record were won from 2 different runs.

                      Link to $340M jackpot winner page: http://www.powerball.com/powerball/winners/2005/101905or.shtm

                      Link to $365M jackpot winner page: http://www.powerball.com/powerball/winners/2006/021806ne.shtm

                      The 2 record jackpots were 4 months apart from each other. The fact the $365M record was $25M more than the $340M record has nothing to do with the $25M increase cap, it just happened to come out to $365M.

                      Gonna win.Big Smile

                        Avatar
                        NY
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                        Posted: August 21, 2007, 11:47 pm - IP Logged

                        No, you have it wrong. The 2 records, the $340M record and $365M record were won from 2 different runs.

                        Link to $340M jackpot winner page: http://www.powerball.com/powerball/winners/2005/101905or.shtm

                        Link to $365M jackpot winner page: http://www.powerball.com/powerball/winners/2006/021806ne.shtm

                        The 2 record jackpots were 4 months apart from each other. The fact the $365M record was $25M more than the $340M record has nothing to do with the $25M increase cap, it just happened to come out to $365M.

                        Well of course they're from two different runs. If they were from the same run nobody would have won the 340 and it wouldn't have been a record. I'll try this one more time, but I'm really not optimistic at this point.

                        1. What was the record before it was 340? Here's a hint: that record is related to somebody who's infamous around here.

                        2. What was the increase from that record to the $340 million record?

                        3. What was the payout for 5+0 winners with the $365 million jackpot? 

                          Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                          Indiana
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                          Posted: August 22, 2007, 12:09 am - IP Logged

                          Well of course they're from two different runs. If they were from the same run nobody would have won the 340 and it wouldn't have been a record. I'll try this one more time, but I'm really not optimistic at this point.

                          1. What was the record before it was 340? Here's a hint: that record is related to somebody who's infamous around here.

                          2. What was the increase from that record to the $340 million record?

                          3. What was the payout for 5+0 winners with the $365 million jackpot? 

                          This is quoted from the PowerBall website:

                          Whenever the Powerball jackpot reaches a record level, the amount of the jackpot prize is limited to increases for each draw of no more than $25 million.

                          The difference that 340-315=25 and 365-340=25 is just a coincidence and has nothing to do with the increase cap. If you don't get it now, then there's no hope for you to get it at all.

                          Gonna win.Big Smile

                            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                            Posted: August 22, 2007, 1:32 am - IP Logged

                            The cap started after the 315 prize so the 315 prize was set by sales only using the old Powerball game (better odds, more cash). Powerball made some changes including the new cap, longer odds and very little cash. After the prize reached 340 it was capped and any additional sales was added to the 5 + 0 pool. Same thing happened later when it hit 365. The new cap level is 390. That's not a coincidence it's part of the Powerball rules. I doubt it will hit 390 but that's a different story. If you search back especially to the 340 drawing there were many posts explaining the new cap system.

                            Looks like Mega survived it's turn. $201 Million with a real prize amount of $117 cash 

                              joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

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                              Posted: August 22, 2007, 2:26 am - IP Logged

                              i justy wait and see for my self who right, once pb gets that high'

                               

                              back to topic then of the growing jackpots.

                              a Cash Option: 117.2 Million mega cash vs pb 114m,

                               

                              i worder which one will get won first

                               

                              i have a feeling come september we have not 1 but 2  350m+ jackpots on our hands LMAO