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I'd estimate the probability of two more MM rollovers as being...

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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New Jersey
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Posted: August 27, 2007, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

...somewhere around 16%.

The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.  The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

This is unlikely but more than barely possible.  If so, it would almost certainly produce a $500M jackpot.

I don't think it will happen, but it could. 

    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
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    Posted: August 27, 2007, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

    ...somewhere around 16%.

    The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.  The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

    This is unlikely but more than barely possible.  If so, it would almost certainly produce a $500M jackpot.

    I don't think it will happen, but it could. 

    I'm still waiting for a $400M+ jackpot.

    Gonna win.Big Smile

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      Posted: August 28, 2007, 12:05 am - IP Logged

      I'm still waiting for a $400M+ jackpot.

      I'd guess that you may not see one.  It is possible that a jackpot reaching the high $300's would jump straight to the $500's.

      I'd like to see it, just to see some old fashioned lotto fever.

      By extrapolation of past behavior I crudely estimate jackpots of around 310-320M, then 380-400M and then 550-580M.

      It could happen, probably won't, but could. 

        dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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        Posted: August 28, 2007, 12:54 am - IP Logged

        I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

        Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around $95 million then around $165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

        I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.

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          Posted: August 28, 2007, 7:48 am - IP Logged

          I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

          Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around $95 million then around $165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

          I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.

          If MM sold 300M tickets to reach a 500M jackpot the largest single most likely outcome would be 1 winner at about 30%.  Another rollover would have an 18% probability.


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            Posted: August 30, 2007, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

            I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.


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              Posted: September 5, 2007, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

              I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.

              Correction, in the 330 million jackpot in MM, 4 winning tickets happen in TX, VA, MD, and GA.