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# I'd estimate the probability of two more MM rollovers as being...

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
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 Posted: August 27, 2007, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

...somewhere around 16%.

The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.  The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

This is unlikely but more than barely possible.  If so, it would almost certainly produce a \$500M jackpot.

I don't think it will happen, but it could.

Indiana
United States
Member #48725
January 7, 2007
1958 Posts
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 Posted: August 27, 2007, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

...somewhere around 16%.

The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.  The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

This is unlikely but more than barely possible.  If so, it would almost certainly produce a \$500M jackpot.

I don't think it will happen, but it could.

I'm still waiting for a \$400M+ jackpot.

Gonna win.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
950 Posts
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 Posted: August 28, 2007, 12:05 am - IP Logged

I'm still waiting for a \$400M+ jackpot.

I'd guess that you may not see one.  It is possible that a jackpot reaching the high \$300's would jump straight to the \$500's.

I'd like to see it, just to see some old fashioned lotto fever.

By extrapolation of past behavior I crudely estimate jackpots of around 310-320M, then 380-400M and then 550-580M.

It could happen, probably won't, but could.

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
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 Posted: August 28, 2007, 12:54 am - IP Logged

I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around \$95 million then around \$165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
950 Posts
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 Posted: August 28, 2007, 7:48 am - IP Logged

I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around \$95 million then around \$165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.

If MM sold 300M tickets to reach a 500M jackpot the largest single most likely outcome would be 1 winner at about 30%.  Another rollover would have an 18% probability.

United States
Member #16612
June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: August 30, 2007, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.

United States
Member #16612
June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: September 5, 2007, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.

Correction, in the 330 million jackpot in MM, 4 winning tickets happen in TX, VA, MD, and GA.

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