I'd estimate the probability of two more MM rollovers as being...Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 27, 2007, 11:39 pm

  ▲▼

  ...somewhere around 16%.

  The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.   The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

  This is unlikely but more than barely possible.   If so, it would almost certainly produce a $500M jackpot.

  I don't think it will happen, but it could. 
• Guru101

  

  Indiana
  United States
  Member #48,723
  January 7, 2007
  1,961 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 27, 2007, 11:45 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to Prob988

  Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Aug 27, 2007

  ...somewhere around 16%.

  The last 15th draw sold around 111M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 53%.   The subsequent drawing, the sixteenth, sold around 212M tickets, for a rollover probability of about 30%.    Carrying some insignificant figures through the calculation suggests a 16% of two more rollovers.

  This is unlikely but more than barely possible.   If so, it would almost certainly produce a $500M jackpot.

  I don't think it will happen, but it could. 

  I'm still waiting for a $400M+ jackpot.

  Gonna win.
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 28, 2007, 12:05 am

  ▲▼
  In response to Guru101

  Quote: Originally posted by Guru101 on Aug 27, 2007

  I'm still waiting for a $400M+ jackpot.

  I'd guess that you may not see one.   It is possible that a jackpot reaching the high $300's would jump straight to the $500's.

  I'd like to see it, just to see some old fashioned lotto fever.

  By extrapolation of past behavior I crudely estimate jackpots of around 310-320M, then 380-400M and then 550-580M.

  It could happen, probably won't, but could. 
• dvdiva

  

  United States
  Member #2,338
  September 17, 2003
  2,063 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 28, 2007, 12:54 am

  ▲▼

  I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

  Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around $95 million then around $165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

  I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 28, 2007, 7:48 am

  ▲▼
  In response to dvdiva

  Quote: Originally posted by dvdiva on Aug 28, 2007

  I'd be happy with a single rollover. Odds of a single winner would be pretty low if there are two rollovers.

  Sales are a little lower this time though so the chance of a rollover is a little higher. I'd say sales for the current drawing will be around $95 million then around $165-175 for the next drawing. Just about even with it's odds. Maybe a little less.

  I have a feeling it gets hit on Tuesday though.

  If MM sold 300M tickets to reach a 500M jackpot the largest single most likely outcome would be 1 winner at about 30%.   Another rollover would have an 18% probability.
• Just6ntlc

  United States
  Member #16,611
  June 2, 2005
  3,493 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 30, 2007, 2:39 pm

  ▲▼

  I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.
• Just6ntlc

  United States
  Member #16,611
  June 2, 2005
  3,493 Posts
  Offline
  Sep 5, 2007, 4:05 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to Just6ntlc

  Quote: Originally posted by Just6ntlc on Aug 30, 2007

  I hope there is a MM jackpot winner in the next draw.

  Correction, in the 330 million jackpot in MM, 4 winning tickets happen in TX, VA, MD, and GA.