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Stupid Question-Quick picks VS Your Own #'s

Topic closed. 24 replies. Last post 9 years ago by guesser.

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BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
Dump Water Florida
United States
Member #380
June 5, 2002
3102 Posts
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Posted: November 7, 2007, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

More and more I am realizing that there is only a certain amount of strategy involved in these games.  All the strategy can do is reduce your odds by a small amount.  The rest is luck and persistence (HOPE?)!Confused

"Reduce your odds by a small amount."  NO No no noooooo!

You are playing in Florida where the 6/53 odds are . . .

6 of 6 is 1 in 22,957,480.00
5 of 6 is 1 in 81,409.50
4 of 6 is 1 in 1,415.82
3 of 6 is 1 in 70.79

Let's take the simple system of eliminating the six numbers from the previous draw.  Because Florida is a larger game repeating numbers are expected rougnly 50% of the time, but you don't know which ones or how many will repeat.  On the other hand zero numbers from the previous draw also occours 50% of the time.  If you adopt the strategy of not playing the possible repeating numbers from the prior draw you will be correct in roughly 50% of all draws over time.

When the strategy is correct the 6/47 odds are . . .

6 of 6 is 1 in 10,737,573.00
5 of 6 is 1 in 43,648.64
4 of 6 is 1 in 872.97
3 of 6 is 1 in 50.36

As you can see, this simple strategy sweeps 12 million combinations off the table in half the draws. This isn't a small reduction in odds, it's more then half.  Of course you have no chance of winning the jackpot when the strategy is wrong which brings the overall odds back to equilibrium, but you might still win a lower tier prize on those draw days.

Now let's look at what happens to the odds when you wheel 18 of those 47 remaining numbers.  The odds of having winning numbers among your 18 are . . .

6 among 18 is 1 in 578.41
5 among 18 is 1 in 43.21
4 among 18 is 1 in 8.64
3 among 18 is 1 in 3.60

Forget the wheel, what if you just make up 8 well balanced combinations from the 47 numbers.  Only six of the lines or less can contain winning numbers so you are then playing in a 6/36 game when your strategy proves correct. 

The odds of a 6/36 game are . . .

6 of 6 is 1 in 1,947,792.00
5 of 6 is 1 in 10,821.57
4 of 6 is 1 in 298.51
3 of 6 is 1 in 23.99

Again a huge reduction in odds with over 20 million combinations swept off the table.  There are things you can do to significantly lower your odds compared to the player ahead and behind you on line.  You still have to be very lucky to win a jackpot, but at least you can do your part in creating a path so luck can come your way.   

BobP

    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
    Harbinger
    D.C./MD.
    United States
    Member #44103
    July 30, 2006
    5583 Posts
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    Posted: November 7, 2007, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

    Lots of good advice now that you are on a journey, self pick and wheel is the way.  Here is some inspirational music to wheel by:

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFC8sDTXlng.

     

    Good luck!

      LOTTOMIKE's avatar - cash money.jpg
      Tennessee
      United States
      Member #7853
      October 15, 2004
      11338 Posts
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      Posted: November 7, 2007, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

      i started this topic a couple years ago and it has a wealth of info.here is the link plus final results....

       

       

       

      do you quick pick or choose your own numbers?

      quick pick[ 32 ]  [12.65%]
      You voted for this choicechoose your own numbers[ 95 ]  [37.55%]
      both[ 126 ]  [49.80%]
      Total Valid Votes[ 253 ]  
      Discarded Votes[ 66 ]  

        lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
        mississippi
        United States
        Member #34478
        March 3, 2006
        5903 Posts
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        Posted: November 7, 2007, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

        Wow!  It's deja vu all over again.

        This question has been asked sooooo many times in sooooo many ways.   Quick picks or your own numbers, quick picks and some of your own numbers, quick picks some days and your own numbers on other days or playing former quick picks as your own numbers......

        The definitive answer is - whatever works for you is the best way to play.  I think that pick-3 or even pick-4 games follow more of a pattern, but any game with odds of several million to 1 is sheer luck.  Having said that, if you ask MegaMillions jackpot winner Bunky Bartlett, he'll tell you that it's all in the magic of Wicca. 

        Now, please excuse me while a take a nap so I can dream my numbers for tomorrow night.

        Smiley

        Edit:  Don't worry about what you asked.  If it weren't for stupid questions, we wouldn't have anything to talk about!  LOL  As long as stupid ideas gets me some m-o-n-e-y, they're okay with me.

        Justxploring...I always love reading your post...I love the humor you always seem to slip into your responses..good luck tonight down in Florida..

        "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

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          Southwest Florida
          United States
          Member #56183
          November 6, 2007
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          Posted: November 7, 2007, 7:43 pm - IP Logged

          BobP,

          That is alot of good information.  I knew the odds were lessened but I didn't realize it was by that much!Eek  I have been trying to analyze the numbers as best I can based certain things.  So far, I have been able to pick 4 out of 6 but just not in the right combination of the 18 I wheeled.  Still won a 3 fer!  It looks like tonight is going to be all quick pics since I haven't had the time to get my number hat on yet.Roll Eyes

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
            United States
            Member #30470
            January 17, 2006
            10344 Posts
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            Posted: November 7, 2007, 7:47 pm - IP Logged

            BobP

            "Now let's look at what happens to the odds when you wheel 18 of those 47 remaining numbers.  The odds of having winning numbers among your 18 are . . .

            6 among 18 is 1 in 578.41
            5 among 18 is 1 in 43.21
            4 among 18 is 1 in 8.64
            3 among 18 is 1 in 3.60  "

            My response to this has to be so how come more pople don't hit these games? 

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              Avatar
              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3471 Posts
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              Posted: November 8, 2007, 11:13 am - IP Logged

              BobP

              "Now let's look at what happens to the odds when you wheel 18 of those 47 remaining numbers.  The odds of having winning numbers among your 18 are . . .

              6 among 18 is 1 in 578.41
              5 among 18 is 1 in 43.21
              4 among 18 is 1 in 8.64
              3 among 18 is 1 in 3.60  "

              My response to this has to be so how come more pople don't hit these games? 

              Because those odds are imaginary odds based on a big if.  You can have 1 in 1 odds of geting a 5+0 or even 5+1 in MM  by wheeling only 5 numbers, if  all of the winning numbers happened to be in your 5 number wheel. In reality there's only a 1 in 3.9 million chance that your wheel will actually include the 5 numbers that are drawn. Simply multiply that chance with your imaginary 1:1 chance and you'll find the real odds.

                guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                United States
                Member #41383
                June 16, 2006
                1969 Posts
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                Posted: November 11, 2007, 2:36 am - IP Logged

                Wow!  It's deja vu all over again.

                This question has been asked sooooo many times in sooooo many ways.   Quick picks or your own numbers, quick picks and some of your own numbers, quick picks some days and your own numbers on other days or playing former quick picks as your own numbers......

                The definitive answer is - whatever works for you is the best way to play.  I think that pick-3 or even pick-4 games follow more of a pattern, but any game with odds of several million to 1 is sheer luck.  Having said that, if you ask MegaMillions jackpot winner Bunky Bartlett, he'll tell you that it's all in the magic of Wicca. 

                Now, please excuse me while a take a nap so I can dream my numbers for tomorrow night.

                Smiley

                Edit:  Don't worry about what you asked.  If it weren't for stupid questions, we wouldn't have anything to talk about!  LOL  As long as stupid ideas gets me some m-o-n-e-y, they're okay with me.

                yep.

                  guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #41383
                  June 16, 2006
                  1969 Posts
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                  Posted: November 11, 2007, 2:43 am - IP Logged

                  I've used the wheels a couple of times.  It's kinda neat.   It sure takes alot of work out of setting up the numbers.  Usually, I'll edit the wheels and take out some of the numbers I don't like.  For example, taking out the numbers that start really high or have too many low numbers etc... 

                  That's your first mistake.

                  I used to take out numbers 'I didn't like', and that has bit me so many times I can't count them all.

                  The first rule is to remove emotion - if a number shows up you must play it, and not rule it out because 'you don't like it'. 

                    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                    United States
                    Member #41383
                    June 16, 2006
                    1969 Posts
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                    Posted: November 11, 2007, 2:45 am - IP Logged

                    LOL

                    Brilliant analysis. Blame the terminal!

                    I just terminally blame something or somebody....

                     

                    Smash