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Matrix change: Powerball to get much harder to win?

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 9 years ago by Guru101.

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LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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February 26, 2007
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Posted: December 4, 2007, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

Maybe they're thinking that making the 5+0 win $1,000,000 by default wouldn't require a matrix change.  Maybe they're counting on the higher payout to be good incentive for enough people to start adding the PowerPlay to their tickets so that the higher 5+0 payout would pay for itself and then some.

Ryanm  - $4 for a PowerPlay ticket would get me to stop playing the PP.  I probably wouldn't pay $2 for a Powerball on a regular basis either.  I'd wait till the JP was over 100 mil before I'd buy a ticket.


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    Posted: December 4, 2007, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

    i think the only way to beat the lottery,is for everyone to play less,then they'll make the prizes easier to win.the more one plays,the less they'll win.

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      NY
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      Posted: December 5, 2007, 2:51 am - IP Logged

      Maybe they're thinking that making the 5+0 win $1,000,000 by default wouldn't require a matrix change.  Maybe they're counting on the higher payout to be good incentive for enough people to start adding the PowerPlay to their tickets so that the higher 5+0 payout would pay for itself and then some.

      Ryanm  - $4 for a PowerPlay ticket would get me to stop playing the PP.  I probably wouldn't pay $2 for a Powerball on a regular basis either.  I'd wait till the JP was over 100 mil before I'd buy a ticket.

      They are definitely not thinking they can payout $1 million without changing the matrix, raising the ticket price,and/or killing their cash cow. Right now 60% of the prize money goes to the jackpot and a bit over 11% goes to the second place prize. Paying 2 1/2 times as much for second place would require about 123% of the current prize pool unless they pay fewer second place prizes. That leaves them the choice of raising the odds and/or reducing some of the other prizes.

      Reducing the other prizes by that much might kill the game, so the choices are to raise the odds or raise the ticket price. Anyone who thinks there's actually a difference between doubling the cost of tickets and doubling the odds doesn't understand how it works.  More expensive tickets will mean more prize money for each ticket sold, but it will do very little to increase the amount that is spent for each drawing. Raising the odds doesn't require doubling them. They could raise the odds by 30 to 50% and still offer decent jackpots while putting a bit more of the prize money into second place. Whether that will increase revenues is a completely different story. I think a change will be yet another case of trying to fix something that isn't broken.

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        NY
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        Posted: December 5, 2007, 2:54 am - IP Logged

        i think the only way to beat the lottery,is for everyone to play less,then they'll make the prizes easier to win.the more one plays,the less they'll win.

        Lotteries generally keep about half of the ticket price, so there is no way to beat them. You can influence their total take, but the math guarantees that it will always be close to the percentage they want it to be. 

          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
          Idaho
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          Posted: December 5, 2007, 12:22 pm - IP Logged

          Maybe they're thinking that making the 5+0 win $1,000,000 by default wouldn't require a matrix change.  Maybe they're counting on the higher payout to be good incentive for enough people to start adding the PowerPlay to their tickets so that the higher 5+0 payout would pay for itself and then some.

          Ryanm  - $4 for a PowerPlay ticket would get me to stop playing the PP.  I probably wouldn't pay $2 for a Powerball on a regular basis either.  I'd wait till the JP was over 100 mil before I'd buy a ticket.

          I agree. If TPTB start charging $2 or more to play PB I would be done with it. I would only play Hot Lotto and Wild Card 2 from now on.

            LuckyLilly's avatar - savy chick.png

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            Posted: December 5, 2007, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

            They are definitely not thinking they can payout $1 million without changing the matrix, raising the ticket price,and/or killing their cash cow. Right now 60% of the prize money goes to the jackpot and a bit over 11% goes to the second place prize. Paying 2 1/2 times as much for second place would require about 123% of the current prize pool unless they pay fewer second place prizes. That leaves them the choice of raising the odds and/or reducing some of the other prizes.

            Reducing the other prizes by that much might kill the game, so the choices are to raise the odds or raise the ticket price. Anyone who thinks there's actually a difference between doubling the cost of tickets and doubling the odds doesn't understand how it works.  More expensive tickets will mean more prize money for each ticket sold, but it will do very little to increase the amount that is spent for each drawing. Raising the odds doesn't require doubling them. They could raise the odds by 30 to 50% and still offer decent jackpots while putting a bit more of the prize money into second place. Whether that will increase revenues is a completely different story. I think a change will be yet another case of trying to fix something that isn't broken.

            Isn't getting more people to purchase the PowerPlay effectively raising ticket prices?  Are you saying that getting more people to pay double for their ticket wouldn't cover the additional cost of 2nd place prizes?

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              Posted: December 28, 2007, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

              What I think of it is the same thing I thought when I was told (here) that my morning show was being dumped for (yawn) Don Imus. At some point some people are going to be disgusted that they rarely match even 1 of 5 they're going to stop playing it, along with all the bad press about lottery winners. The price of a ticket is already 2 dollars when PP is used, so what would the new price be, $3?? There is also a way to change the matrix without increasing the jackpot odds, that is to make more white balls and less bonus balls. The 400K minimum is with PPx2, but often PP is higher anyway. I think they need to let the players vote first before they ruin things. And I don't know why they can't just combine the PB and MM? I'd be in more PB games then because I'd not have to go to PA.

              Another technical problem with a matrix change is, they're having trouble fitting all these darn numbers on the betslip as it is. The MM slips in nj have a "dogleg" where the white balls border the bonus balls, with only enough potential room for 4 more regular numbers and/or 2 more bonus balls. The machines read a certain way and some matrix changes will require extreme retooling (cost!!!) of terminals.


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                Posted: December 28, 2007, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

                ha,it's impossible to win now,experts on lottery post feel real great,only getting 3 numbers.they announce winners in some states 5-0,but how could we prove they really had winners!

                  TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
                  A long and winding road
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                  Posted: December 28, 2007, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

                  Matrix change? Hmmm...so long as its in the favor of the player :) I say go ahead and change it! Make it more cash for the players! Otherwise make it tax free entirely since each state has already designated a state run charity style program. Bottom line....make it playable and win-able , NOT inconceivable to win!

                  ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

                   Thanks be to the giving numbers: 1621,912,119 02014

                    sirbrad's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                    PA
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                    Posted: December 30, 2007, 12:04 am - IP Logged

                    Yeah it is ridiculous enough as it already is, and I already play A LOT less than before. If this crap game changes it again in their favor, I am done with this crap game for good.

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                      NY
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                      Posted: December 30, 2007, 1:22 am - IP Logged

                      Isn't getting more people to purchase the PowerPlay effectively raising ticket prices?  Are you saying that getting more people to pay double for their ticket wouldn't cover the additional cost of 2nd place prizes?

                      How is something optional effectively a price increase when you can still buy a ticket for $1? Getting more people to pay twice as much won't put one dime in the 2nd place prize pool if the reason they pay twice as much is to play for the power play prize.

                        dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                        Posted: December 30, 2007, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

                        Unless they change the price per ticket to $2 instead of $1 a matrix change is the only way to increase the average jackpot. They should have changed it when they added the last state. If they are going to make changes they should change the cash payouts. Powerball has a pathetic cash value now which is less than 50%. To match the largest jackpot prize of record (183M Euros) it would take a pot of $548M.

                        If they are serious about the changes to the second prize payouts then they better have a national pot for that and not a state pot like they do now. If you play all the powerballs and win it would bust most states at the 5x level right now. The new payouts would make the added second place prizes worth more than most jackpots they offer.

                          konane's avatar - wallace
                          Atlanta, GA
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                          Posted: December 30, 2007, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

                          Why doesn't PB roll its matrix back some and essentially coast along with that game which was once fun to play?

                          To compete with mega lotteries like El Gordo which draws once a year why doesn't the Multi-State Lottery Association expand on what states are doing now and have a raffle every 6 months or every year????   Jackpots climb to the probable billion + range and everyone gets what they want ...... all of which makes sense instead of trying Franken-morph PB into something unrecognizable.

                          Good luck to everyone!

                            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                            Indiana
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                            Posted: December 31, 2007, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                            Unless they change the price per ticket to $2 instead of $1 a matrix change is the only way to increase the average jackpot. They should have changed it when they added the last state. If they are going to make changes they should change the cash payouts. Powerball has a pathetic cash value now which is less than 50%. To match the largest jackpot prize of record (183M Euros) it would take a pot of $548M.

                            If they are serious about the changes to the second prize payouts then they better have a national pot for that and not a state pot like they do now. If you play all the powerballs and win it would bust most states at the 5x level right now. The new payouts would make the added second place prizes worth more than most jackpots they offer.

                            I hope you realize that the cash value is calculated first, then the annuity value is calculated based off the amount of cash. Powerball's cash option is what it is for a REASON. Just because Mega Millions' cash value is a higher percentage of the annuity value, doesn't mean Powerball's cash value can be classified as "pathetic". Powerball allows a higher annuity value with less cash than Mega Millions. THAT is why Powerball's cash value is a lower percentage than Mega Millions'. I find it funny that some people on this site complain about a few percents of MILLIONS of dollars. Hmmmmm, I wonder why they're playing the lottery in the first place. You won't find me complaining about Powerball's cash option if I win.Razz

                            Gonna win.Big Smile

                              dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                              Posted: December 31, 2007, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

                              Considering the payout is less than half, yes that's pathetic. Consider the following players:

                              In Canada and Europe if the jackpot is listed as $30M you get a check for that amount. It's value is the same as the listed jackpot prize.

                              In Megamillions the prize listed as $30M means it's cash prize is $18M and after tax is around $12M. That last number is the actual value the prize has.

                              In Powerball the prize listed as $30M. It's cash value is 14.7M and after tax is around $10M. Assuming no state income tax for either prize.

                              That post tax amount will drop if a Democrat is elected in 08 and adds the 4% for social security plus the high cost of public health care. Canada and Europe already have public health care but don't tax winnings from state run lotteries.