Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited January 20, 2017, 9:09 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Van Michaels: "The top 5 lotto mistakes"

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 8 years ago by tntea.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10391 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 26, 2008, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

(A search on LP showed nothing for this guy so I'm thinking he's a new entity on Lotto info- or steve Player using yet another alias!)

Got this in the maik, as I'm sure others here will.

It's a four page flyer and the cover sheet says "I will help you win $100,000" and when folded the back of the address page says You Just Won the Lottery-

Inside as part of the information there's a box that reads:

Do you make any of these Top Five Lottery Mistakes:

1. You play the same numbers every week?

2. You let the state's computer pick your numbers?

3. You buy your tickets on the day of the lottery drawing?

4. You pick your numbers by using birthdays, ages, dates and so on?

5. You buy just any scratch off ticket?

____________________________________________

I'd say

1. That's up to the player and could be aruged for or against equally.

2. I'm starting to think that should be an acid test for any system seller. Anyone who's selling lotto info and denies quick picks win the most is a hype artist.

3. Curious at best.

4. The people in Georgia or somwehre a while back hit the MM exactly like that.

5. Personally I see no "skill" or technique in scratcher,

Let's discuss.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    Avatar
    New Mexico
    United States
    Member #58526
    February 18, 2008
    683 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 26, 2008, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

    Coin Toss, I know we've been 'round and 'round about quick picks before, but I agree with #2.  Sure, play random numbers, but if you think for one second that the numbers the state's lottery machine kicks out are random then I think you're kidding yourself.  Use ANY other method under the sun to pick random numbers, but don't buy quick picks from the state machines.  I know you will disagree and say that "Most jackpots are won by state lottery machine generated quick picks" and you are correct.  That's only because quick picks are between 80% and 90% of lottery sales.  I have much better luck with random numbers picked by other methods. 

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
      Member #30470
      January 17, 2006
      10391 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 26, 2008, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

      Texas MadMan

      Regardless of how we feel about quick picks, if I was trying to sell lottery information I would at least include exactly what you did above about quick picks, something like, "If you look up the stats you'll see most jackpot winners are quick picks - because most sales are."

      But to make a statement like this Michaels guy or any of the other people selling how to win lottert info implies that he thinks his potential customers know nothing - which in turn implies he's just trying to fleece them.

      I'm curious about his remark about buying tickets the day of the drawing - I can see that one being nothing but pure 'voo doo' and even more hype.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
        Idaho
        United States
        Member #56506
        November 21, 2007
        6537 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 26, 2008, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

        3. You buy your tickets on the day of the lottery drawing?

        I agree Coin Toss. How can picking your ticket on the day of the drawing be a mistake? It doesn't make sense. In fact, my biggest win playing Powerball was when I bought the ticket the day of the drawing. lol.

        "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

          Avatar
          New Mexico
          United States
          Member #58526
          February 18, 2008
          683 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 26, 2008, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

          Texas MadMan

          Regardless of how we feel about quick picks, if I was trying to sell lottery information I would at least include exactly what you did above about quick picks, something like, "If you look up the stats you'll see most jackpot winners are quick picks - because most sales are."

          But to make a statement like this Michaels guy or any of the other people selling how to win lottert info implies that he thinks his potential customers know nothing - which in turn implies he's just trying to fleece them.

          I'm curious about his remark about buying tickets the day of the drawing - I can see that one being nothing but pure 'voo doo' and even more hype.

          I have to agree with you there, Coin, what difference does it make when you buy your tickets?  I would definitely like to hear that explanation.  I would also like to hear why he thinks you shouldn't play the same numbers every week.  If they didn't hit last week, why shouldn't I play them this week?

            Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
            CT
            United States
            Member #61398
            May 21, 2008
            781 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 28, 2008, 10:09 am - IP Logged

            Quick thoughts -

            It doesn't matter how random the state number generators are, since mathematically each ticket they print out has an equal chance at winning.

            How can you NOT buy your tickets on the day of, if you're playing a daily lotto (cash 5, play 3, play 4, etc) when you use all drawings up to and including the previous night for your calculation?  I guess that depends on your methods..

              pigsNtrees's avatar - pigsNtrees
              Mallorn trees of Lothlorien
              United States
              Member #26084
              November 14, 2005
              199 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 28, 2008, 10:48 am - IP Logged

              5. You buy just any scratch off ticket?

              Well the only thing I can think of about scratch offs is, I do look online to see if the top prizes have been won.

              Quando Porca Volare!

              drunk hobbit

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19901 Posts
                Online
                Posted: July 28, 2008, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                Sounds like this Van Micheals has just repackaged some old thoughts and added some filler just to make a sale.  That stuff doesn't make any sense to an older experienced player but it might to a young one.  People are running out of new things to say so they are recycling the old stuff.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Avatar
                  Kentucky
                  United States
                  Member #32652
                  February 14, 2006
                  7344 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 28, 2008, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

                  Sounds like this Van Micheals has just repackaged some old thoughts and added some filler just to make a sale.  That stuff doesn't make any sense to an older experienced player but it might to a young one.  People are running out of new things to say so they are recycling the old stuff.

                  When Ohio first introduced a lotto game, I believe it was 6/40 and we got two plays for a buck. There were no "hot" or "cold" numbers, patterns, or trends and if somebody wanted to use filters they  had to rely on probability percentages. I used the logic that any 6 numbers in any combination could be drawn so I wrote all the numbers on slips of paper, mixed them, drew them out of a hat, filled out a bet slip, and played those combinations.

                  PB and MM have more numbers and use a different style but the fact that any number can be drawn in combination with other numbers hasn't changed. After time, the Ohio Lotto had a drawing history and so does PB and MM. I could have drawn the 56 MM numbers out of a hat and rearranged those combinations based on recent drawings just like I did with the lotto game.

                  Computer programs are a great tool for speeding up the process of evaluating past drawings and even wheels, but it was still done before using pencil and paper. The only change I see is that now it takes less time and it's easier to experiment with our old ideas, but see no new information that wasn't there 20 or 30 years ago.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    19901 Posts
                    Online
                    Posted: July 29, 2008, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

                    When Ohio first introduced a lotto game, I believe it was 6/40 and we got two plays for a buck. There were no "hot" or "cold" numbers, patterns, or trends and if somebody wanted to use filters they  had to rely on probability percentages. I used the logic that any 6 numbers in any combination could be drawn so I wrote all the numbers on slips of paper, mixed them, drew them out of a hat, filled out a bet slip, and played those combinations.

                    PB and MM have more numbers and use a different style but the fact that any number can be drawn in combination with other numbers hasn't changed. After time, the Ohio Lotto had a drawing history and so does PB and MM. I could have drawn the 56 MM numbers out of a hat and rearranged those combinations based on recent drawings just like I did with the lotto game.

                    Computer programs are a great tool for speeding up the process of evaluating past drawings and even wheels, but it was still done before using pencil and paper. The only change I see is that now it takes less time and it's easier to experiment with our old ideas, but see no new information that wasn't there 20 or 30 years ago.

                    Ohio did have a 6/40 game from 04/09/83 to 04/18/87 that was only played once a week until 10/10/84 when they added the Wednesday drawings.

                    If only I had the software then that I have today.  For example, with that game 50% of the all winning combo had six numbers that had hit 1-4 times in the previous 18 drawings.  I could have reduced the number pool to 28-38 numbers each drawing and had a 42.6% chance of matching all six winning numbers or a 99% chance of matching three numbers or better.  At 50¢ a line I could have played more lines than I usually play today.

                    The pick3 and pick4 games have remained the same and they're still many states most profitable games so software, systems and theories haven't helped the players of those games much but jackpot games have had to change to survive.  I remember when Ohio's games like 6/40, 6/44 and 6/47 could generate jackpots much larger than today's 6/49 game.  Some of those games rolled $4M after each drawing and today Ohio Classic Lotto need about 10 drawings before reaching that amount.  As players have gotten better, the games have added more numbers and reduced the jackpot amounts.
                     
                    I believe there may yet be some potentials for improving the players chances with jackpot games but such software/strategies/systems will not be available commercially or written in a book because the jackpots are so large that even winning one times could generate more money than could ever be generated by selling them to the public.

                    Players who are serious about finding a system, theory or software to improve their chances of winning a jackpot game beyond just getting lucky are on their own, nothing written in a book is likely to help them.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                      adelaide sa
                      Australia
                      Member #37136
                      April 11, 2006
                      3316 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 29, 2008, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                      he basically covered about 99% of all lotto players, in those 5  questions.   i see it as pulling as large a crowd as possible.

                      he missed "  did u win the lowest division or nothing at all  in last weeks draw? "

                       

                      that would cover a seriously large chunck of players also.

                       

                      but there is some good news, u cant answer yes to all 5 questions; as u cant play same numbers every week AND play quick picks.

                      unless there is something seriously wrong with the quick pick equipment.

                      2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

                      keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

                        time*treat's avatar - radar

                        United States
                        Member #13130
                        March 30, 2005
                        2171 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 29, 2008, 2:01 pm - IP Logged

                        Mistake #6: Buying lotto "info" from someone who is making more money selling 'info' than from winning lotto. Dead

                        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                          justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                          Wandering Aimlessly
                          United States
                          Member #25360
                          November 5, 2005
                          4461 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 29, 2008, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

                          1. You play the same numbers every week?

                          I've read several articles in the news stating the winner played a number for many years & it finally hit.

                          2. You let the state's computer pick your numbers?

                          The comment we see so much on LP, that is, the only reason so many QPs win is that 75-80% of all tickets purchased are QPs" does not mean anything.  Let's say those figures are 100% accurate.  So what?  It makes no sense to say "that's why I won't buy a QP" because it's like saying "all those winners played against the odds, let the terminal pick their numbers, didn't listen to reason..oh, and they won millions."  Do you think the winners care how many people buy QPs & self-picks?   Mary: "Hi, Bob. What's new?"  Bob: "I won $10 million playing Florida Lotto."  Mary: "How did you select your numbers?" Bob: "Oh, I just got lucky and bought 5 QPs and one of them won." Mary: "Well, statistics show that you had a much better chance had you used a system and picked your own numbers." 

                          3. You buy your tickets on the day of the lottery drawing?

                          Same people as in #2 comment.   Mary: "Congrats, Bob. Heard you won $10 million!"  Bob: "Thanks, Mary.  My wife & I were on our way home from a movie on Sat night and I stopped for gas. Out of the blue I decided to buy 5 QPs."  Mary: "Well, you should have bought your tickets on Thursday. You would have had a better chance."

                          4. You pick your numbers by using birthdays, ages, dates and so on?

                          Didn't the man who drove around waving his winning PB ticket use the birthdays of his grandchildren?

                          5. You buy just any scratch off ticket?

                          I don't buy them. However, except for the games with no top prizes left, what difference does it make?  Still, this is the only suggestion that makes some sense to me.  If someone just won $10,000 yesterday playing the same scratch-off ticket, maybe there isn't another big winner in the roll.  I have no idea.

                            pigsNtrees's avatar - pigsNtrees
                            Mallorn trees of Lothlorien
                            United States
                            Member #26084
                            November 14, 2005
                            199 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 29, 2008, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

                            "Didn't the man who drove around waving his winning PB ticket use the birthdays of his grandchildren?"

                            I remember this guy. He won on a Friday night, and in the morning paper, there he was holding the ticket for the reporters. So everyone that read the paper on Saturday knew his name, what town he lived in, and most importantly that the ticket was not in a safety deposit box! It's a wonder he is still alive.

                            Quando Porca Volare!

                            drunk hobbit

                              ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                              Idaho
                              United States
                              Member #56506
                              November 21, 2007
                              6537 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 30, 2008, 12:17 am - IP Logged

                              Mistake #6: Buying lotto "info" from someone who is making more money selling 'info' than from winning lotto. Dead

                              LOL  True.

                              "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."