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Lottery Post Players vs Big lottery: An Analysis

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 8 years ago by Fibonacci.

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Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
New York, NY
United States
Member #39471
May 16, 2006
2696 Posts
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Posted: February 18, 2009, 9:51 am - IP Logged

Ok it's simpler than the academic sounding title suggests.

Problem: How do the fine brains on Lotterypost do on a typical lottery day? What percentage of the draws for a typical day do LP players actually successfully predict? Where do the largest number of hits (wins/successful predictions)?

Limitations: Confined ti P3 and P4. My typical day may not be typical at all. I simply chose a regular weekday.

Method: Compare all predictions on LP for a typical day to the results for that day.

Date used: Feb 17, 2009.

Abbreviations used: LP=Lottery Post; LPs=LP members posting predictions; mid=midday; eve=evening

Pick 3

LPs posted 772 different straight numbers in the p3 in a total of 1985 predictions. There are 59 draws (both mid and eve). These draws are as posted on Betslips/LP.

Lps successfully predicted 50 of 59 draws!  That's 84% (rounded off conservatively). Impressive? The numbers that were not predicted by Lps are: 041-288-288 (lol--a number not predicted by LPs hit twice)--522-618--804--839--851--941. I'll call these House Numbers.

Question (to be tested today and the next few days): Do these house numbers have significance? We'll see today.

Question: Out of which tier do most predictions come? Many members post multiple predictions of the same number when they feel confident aboput the number and many membersw make the same predictions.

My analysis showed that the greatest hits actually came from single predictions overall and double predictions. By that I mean the the m ost hits actually came where only one person predicted one number (I'll call this T1, or two numbers or where two persons predicted two different numbers call this T2).

T1=313 numbers scored  22 hits

T2=216 different numbers (432 total) scored  15 hits

 

Can this research help us in any way?

 

Some additional questions:

Will the publication and dissemination of this info affect LPs predicting behavior?

What if this info can be used to create a system ?

Does this kind of research and findings raise ethical issues?

$$$

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    United States
    Member #41846
    June 23, 2006
    458 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: February 19, 2009, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

    Interesting.   your addittional questions     you can't compile the data untill the data is posted.  individuals results are on prediction board already so i see no reason that it should affect behavior.

    I seem to recall CD saying he used deflate the predictors. I don't remember what sucess he had

    ethical issues. you are not taking one persons work and calling it your own. you are using publically posted info from many sourses (predictors) and producing a new product that is the result of your efforts.  based on what you wrote i don't see an ethical issue.

    good luck

    p8

      Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
      New York, NY
      United States
      Member #39471
      May 16, 2006
      2696 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: February 20, 2009, 10:11 am - IP Logged

      Interesting.   your addittional questions     you can't compile the data untill the data is posted.  individuals results are on prediction board already so i see no reason that it should affect behavior.

      I seem to recall CD saying he used deflate the predictors. I don't remember what sucess he had

      ethical issues. you are not taking one persons work and calling it your own. you are using publically posted info from many sourses (predictors) and producing a new product that is the result of your efforts.  based on what you wrote i don't see an ethical issue.

      good luck

      p8

      Thanks for the response. Actually the issue of affecting predictors' behavior arises if people would adjust their future behavior based on the fact that someone is studying their predictions to make their own predictions.

      Some might also see an ethical issue there too I thought.

      For example most P4 prediction will nopt hit straight. If once can look at recent past predictions and see how near or far they came to actual drawn numbers and discern a pattern. I will post a list of numbers that I think will hit straight based on this method. The list will be still large so even if profitable i might be prohibitively expensive for even the most daring player. But just to demonstrate my point I will post a list and guarantee at least 3 straights on most days.

      $$$

        Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        New York, NY
        United States
        Member #39471
        May 16, 2006
        2696 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: February 20, 2009, 10:31 am - IP Logged

        Ok it's simpler than the academic sounding title suggests.

        Problem: How do the fine brains on Lotterypost do on a typical lottery day? What percentage of the draws for a typical day do LP players actually successfully predict? Where do the largest number of hits (wins/successful predictions)?

        Limitations: Confined ti P3 and P4. My typical day may not be typical at all. I simply chose a regular weekday.

        Method: Compare all predictions on LP for a typical day to the results for that day.

        Date used: Feb 17, 2009.

        Abbreviations used: LP=Lottery Post; LPs=LP members posting predictions; mid=midday; eve=evening

        Pick 3

        LPs posted 772 different straight numbers in the p3 in a total of 1985 predictions. There are 59 draws (both mid and eve). These draws are as posted on Betslips/LP.

        Lps successfully predicted 50 of 59 draws!  That's 84% (rounded off conservatively). Impressive? The numbers that were not predicted by Lps are: 041-288-288 (lol--a number not predicted by LPs hit twice)--522-618--804--839--851--941. I'll call these House Numbers.

        Question (to be tested today and the next few days): Do these house numbers have significance? We'll see today.

        Question: Out of which tier do most predictions come? Many members post multiple predictions of the same number when they feel confident aboput the number and many membersw make the same predictions.

        My analysis showed that the greatest hits actually came from single predictions overall and double predictions. By that I mean the the m ost hits actually came where only one person predicted one number (I'll call this T1, or two numbers or where two persons predicted two different numbers call this T2).

        T1=313 numbers scored  22 hits

        T2=216 different numbers (432 total) scored  15 hits

         

        Can this research help us in any way?

         

        Some additional questions:

        Will the publication and dissemination of this info affect LPs predicting behavior?

        What if this info can be used to create a system ?

        Does this kind of research and findings raise ethical issues?

        I logged the above on the  morning of Feb 18.

        Check this out. The same day the House Numbers (8 numbers) scored 2 straight hits!!

        618--839

         

        Now if you box the house numbers and play them straight you get another hit---225. 3 straights for playing 16 numbers all state. More than $400 profit just for one day.

        Now playing the numbers boxed the results were 014, 168,  225, 389 scored hits. 4 out of 9 numbers hit on the next day.

         

        Results for Feb 19

        No straight hits, no boxed as straight hits, no boxed hits. A one day wonder it seems, so far.

        $$$