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One way or another

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 8 years ago by Moses.

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UK
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Member #9650
December 15, 2004
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Posted: February 22, 2009, 10:00 am - IP Logged

Hello to all 

 

I have one question to ask! 

 

If we take lottery 649 plus the power ball (bonus) as example then;

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 4 numbers correct?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 5 numbers correct?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 5 plus PB numbers correct?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting all 6 numbers (jackpot) correct?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 4 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 5 numbers correct?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 4 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 5 numbers correct?

 

Let’s make it a bet complicated

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be Lesserthan people getting 4 numbers correct and lesser than people getting 5 correct but more than people getting all the 6 numbers?

 

Is it possible that the number of people getting 3 numbers correct to be MORE than people getting 4 numbers correct but Lesserthan people getting 5 correct and MORE than people getting all the 6 numbers?

 

The questions like above can continue for all possible variations for 3,4,5 from 6 and the answer is big YES, please correct me if I am wrong!!!!

 

My question is why it is not happening in any lottery around of world?

 

Example of prize winners

Jackpot                   x           person

Second prize            xx          people

Third prize                xxx        people

Forth prize              xxxx      people

Fifth prize                xxxxx    people

 

The prize dividend above does not have to be in that specific order for every single draw because when the payments are based on permutations then there are several possibilities. One of the possibility is the number people match 6 numbers can exceed from the number of people matching three numbers so matching three numbers does not necessarily mean winning £10 in UK or the low prize!

 

The one and only conclusion that I can draw is   either the number of prize winners as the organisers claim is totally false and imaginary or the balls are chipped with electronics to search for the jackpot numbers which shapeup the dividends in low to high order!

 

Can anybody from this forum tell us the accurate way of working the possibilities for all prize categories please!

 

Cheers

 

Moses

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: February 22, 2009, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

    As with any lottery, anything is possible but somethings are more likely.  Since there are more lower tier winning combinations, it more likely that more players will win one of the lower tier prizes than those winning the higher tier prizes.

     possible combos of 6 with 49 numbers are 13983816
     MATCH    ODDS                        WINNING COMBOS
      6/6+0   1 : 13983816                1
     *5/6+B   1 : 2330636                 6
      5/6+0   1 : 55491                   252
     *4/6+B   1 : 22197                   630
      4/6+0   1 : 1083                    12915
     *3/6+B   1 : 812                     17220
      3/6+0   1 : 61                      229600
     ______________________________________________________
     overall odds are 1 : 53.6
    *the bonus number is also picked from the pool of 49 numbers.     

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      Posted: February 22, 2009, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

      Hello RAJO

       

      Thanks for your reply but this is not what I am after! I am looking for YES it is possible or NO it is not possible and if yes, then what are the odds for these possibilites not to happen ever and also how to figure out the accurate possibilities as I explained for each variation in mathematical terms?

      We’re talking about lots of lotteries worldwide and 1000s and 1000s of draws and this situation of mixed dividends had never and ever happened! What if it was happening in regular bases or happens even just once!

       

      Can you imagine the scenario that Mr X’s ticket matched 5 numbers along with 1000s of other people which his share from the prize pool will be £15 and Mrs Y’s ticket matched 3 numbers along with few other people which her share from the prize pool will be £20,000 so what do you think will happen then? The person who got more numbers correct will receive much lesser windfall which inevitably creates problems for the organisers! But this is the correct procedure of dividends which should happen almost in every draw.

      We have football pools in UK with maximum of 24 points to score and if you get that then you will win the jackpot but often happens that people scoring 23 points will receive more windfall than people scoring 24 points so how come this can happen in pools but not in lottery?

      Can I also say that the US space shuttle with all the technology on board fell to pieces when returning back to earth so if there is a possibility of any kind then there is certainty of happening if you agree!

       

      What you suggested in your post like the odds for 6 from 49 is 13,983,816 is just the basic information and even that is considerably wrong theory when I discovered the digital ending, this is why!

       

      Below are 49 numbers

       

      00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

      10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

      20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

      30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

      40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

       

      There are 5 groups of numbers in vertical (01-09)(10-19)(20-29)(30-39)(40-49)

      Lottery produces 6 numbers which these 6 can only enter 6 groups of numbers in vertical and the other 4 groups remain intact and therefore the 6 lotto candidates are selected from the maximum of 30 numbers not 49!

      Lottery is all about views and angles and each angle has a different mathematical analysis!

      Regards,

      Moses

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: March 1, 2009, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

        Sorry I couldn't be of any help.  It has been my experience when it comes to lotteries, there are no simple "YES" or "NO" answers for every question lottery players ask especially when they get beyond those questions about odds, jackpots and history that most first time lottery players want to know. 

        Keep looking, I'm sure you'll find someone with an answer you like because there are plenty of players who have been playing lotteries for years and know a lot about them even though they've never won much playing them.  Good luck to you.

        P.S.

        00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

        10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

        20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

        30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

        40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

        00 is a number too, so the above are 50 numbers. Thud

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          time*treat's avatar - radar

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          Posted: March 5, 2009, 8:55 am - IP Logged

          Can you imagine the scenario that Mr X’s ticket matched 5 numbers along with 1000s of other people which his share from the prize pool will be £15 and Mrs Y’s ticket matched 3 numbers along with few other people which her share from the prize pool will be £20,000

          It hasn't happened because the prize structure prevents it. Pick 6 lotteries have small fixed prizes for match 3; in the $3-$5 range.
          No matter how few people matched 3 of 6, they wouldn't be paid $1000s for doing so.

          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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            Posted: March 5, 2009, 2:33 pm - IP Logged

            Hello time*treat

             

            I don’t really understand what you’re saying or suggesting!

            Every prize category has a budget or a prize-pool based on percentage of the lottery income, isn’t it?

            Assuming the UK lottery sales for last Wed draw was £40m, about 50 percent of this sales stay in house and the other 50 percent will be divided to all possible prize categories!

            %18 = jackpot

            %22 = Second prize (5+ bonus ball)

            %15 = third prize (5 numbers)

            %20 = forth prize (4 numbers)

            %25 = third prize (3 numbers)

             

            50 percent of £40m is £20m

            The lowest payout for three numbers is %25 from £20m is £5 millions!

            My question is if it would be possible that just one person gets three numbers right from the total sales which collects the whole of this prize category of £5m? The answer is yes it is possible but why it has never happened however the chances are slim as you say but still should happen!

            Getting three numbers right from six doesn’t mean the lowest prizes ever, not when the dividend is based on the wheel of ANY three from 6 numbers!

             

            Below is one example for you

             

            If these six numbers are the lottery numbers then

            01 02 03 04 05 06

             

            Matching any three from 6 equals 20 wheels or possibilities

            01 02 03

            01 02 04

            01 02 05

            01 02 06

            01 03 04

            01 03 05

            01 03 06

            01 04 05

            01 04 06

            01 05 06

            02 03 04

            02 03 05

            02 03 06

            02 04 05

            02 04 06

            02 05 06

            03 04 05

            03 04 06

            03 05 06

            04 05 06

            There are big possibilities that some of the wheels above get saturated by the players and some never get used at all and the only people would know the inside information is the Camelot and no-one else!

             

            Matching any four from 6 equals 10 wheels or possibilities

            01 02 03 04

            01 02 03 05

            01 02 03 06

            01 03 04 05

            01 03 04 06

            01 04 05 06

            02 03 04 05

            02 03 04 06

            02 03 05 06

            02 04 05 06

            Possibility; more players cover 10 wheels than 20 wheels above

             

            Matching any five from 6 equals 6 wheels or possibilities

            01 02 03 04 05

            01 02 03 04 06

            01 02 03 05 06

            01 02 04 05 06

            01 03 04 05 06

            02 03 04 05 06

            Possibility; more players cover 6 wheels than 10,20 wheels above

             

            Matching all six from 6 equal 1 wheels and no other possibilities

             

            01 02 03 04 05 06

            Possibility; more players cover 1 wheel than 6,10,20 wheels above

             

            Now, am I right or wrong?

             

            Moses  

              time*treat's avatar - radar

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              Posted: March 5, 2009, 3:30 pm - IP Logged

              If you are in fact correct, and I am in fact wrong, then you should file a complaint with the UK Lottery.

              A check of their past results...

              http://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/p/results/resultsHistory/resultsHistoryAction.do

              shows they have paid out a fixed L10 (ten pounds) for matching 3 of 6, regardless of how many people matched higher prizes.

              As long as those rules are still in effect, the answer is still "no".

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                Posted: March 8, 2009, 6:01 pm - IP Logged

                Hi time*treat

                This is not about who is right and who is wrong! The reason I posted my question on this forum was that, I expected someone like JADElottery will come up with some sort of mathematical analysis with some accurate answers! If there is no way to assess the possibilities then we will never know the true answers!

                However, as far as taking my complaint to officials, I have done that too and still waiting for reply if I ever get it!

                About paying £10 guaranteed as minimum prize for matching 3 numbers, this is an impossible task unless they know certain info such as how many 10 pounds winners before the balls are drawn otherwise there is no way for any organisation to suggest how much they payout and how much they keep in before the game even starts!

                When there is one nation of 60 millions of people or more take a gamble with one organisation then advanced information is a must whereas any kind of surprises will end up in total disaster!

                If there is a kind of gambling then there is a way of cheating!

                Moses

                  time*treat's avatar - radar

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                  Posted: March 9, 2009, 10:54 am - IP Logged

                  If you are asking "How can the lottery can always ensure the 10# prize no matter how many people win?"

                  A: No doubt there is a limit on how many times a particular combination is allowed to be played.

                  Also the lottery doesn't distribute the entire amount for the prize level on most days, they can roll that over. Here's an extreme case.

                  Jackpot prize: 10,000,000, then using the numbers you posted earlier:

                  %18 = jackpot -- 10,000,000
                  %22 = Second prize (5+ bonus ball) -- 22/18 * 10,000,000 = 12,222,222
                  %15 = third prize (5 numbers) -- 15/18 * 10,000,000 = 8,333,333
                  %20 = fourth prize (4 numbers) -- 20/18 * 10,000,000 = 11,111,111
                  %25 = third prize (3 numbers) -- 25/18 * 10,000,000 = 13,888,888

                  Let's suppose only 1 person in all the UK bought a ticket for the drawing and matched 3 numbers. The budget for the 3rd prize pool is over 13mill, but the single winner is still only going to get paid 10. (Would you call that cheating?) The remaining 13,888,878 gets carried over to the next drawing along with all the money in the other tiers. That creates a cushion for when many people win, which will happen with much less frequency.

                  In the real world, you'd have to also know how many tickets were sold and which combinations had or had not been played by more than one person. All of those things will change from one draw to the next and do not lend themselves to a single generic % equation. In fact, each combination will have a different % value within the same drawing, because some combos will be played more heavily.

                  In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                  Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                    Posted: March 9, 2009, 2:17 pm - IP Logged

                    time*treat

                    I think you are contradicting yourself

                    You said <<<<<<Let's suppose only 1 person in all the UK bought a ticket for the drawing and matched 3 numbers. The budget for the 3rd prize pool is over 13mill, but the single winner is still only going to get paid 10. (Would you call that cheating?) The remaining 13,888,878 gets carried over to the next drawing along with all the money in the other tiers. That creates a cushion for when many people win, which will happen with much less frequency>>>>>>>

                    No, I don't think that is cheating! I call that theft.

                    If the prize pool for all prize categories are suppose to be paid or shared amongst the winners then it does not matter how many winners there are! The prize pool must be divided to the actual winners! The way you say it then its okay to pay the share of the jackpot to one person and keep the rest for the next draw!

                    Each draw has it's own independent budget based on the sales of that event and only the jackpot prize can be rolled to next draw not the other prize categories!

                     

                    You also said

                    <<<<<<In the real world, you'd have to also know how many tickets were sold and which combinations had or had not been played by more than one person. All of those things will change from one draw to the next and do not lend themselves to a single generic % equation. In fact, each combination will have a different % value within the same drawing, because some combos will be played more heavily>>>>>>> 

                    Of course some combos will be played more than others, I have already explained abobe that some wheels 6 from 49 can get saturated and some don't get played at all but if the lottery is random then there is big possibility that the combos are played more to come as lottery numbers which reduce the prize levels for all prize categories, as an example 2000 people share the jackpot!

                    Can you point me to any lottery in the world that they had 2000 jackpot winners, if no then you are not living in real statistical world! Besides could you tell me where do you get your information that they keep most of the money from the lowest prizes category and shift it to next draw?

                     

                    Moses

                      time*treat's avatar - radar

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                      Posted: March 9, 2009, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

                      If the prize pool for all prize categories are suppose to be paid orshared amongst the winners then it does not matter how many winnersthere are!

                      That isn't how the prize money is handled.

                      The prize pool must be divided to the actual winners! "Must"? Not necessarily. You can't make the rules for their lottery. See Ya!

                      Theway you say it then its okay to pay the share of the jackpot to oneperson and keep the rest for the next draw!

                      The money isn't separated into different groups for prize payout ...and kept separate. That would be like suggesting that the money youbudgeted for gas cannot be used for food, if you didn't drive as muchas you'd expected to. I didn't say it was OK, I just pointed it out. I don't make the rules for their lottery, either. That's how the prize pool builds up. In your UK lottery, look at the "3rd prize" payouts; always 10 * number of 3-match winners. I don't suppose you believe that amount is exactly 25% of what was set aside for the jackpot.

                      Each draw has it's own independent budget based on the sales of thatevent and only the jackpot prize can be rolled to next draw not theother prize categories!

                      Says you. Their lottery, their money, their rules. I think I see the problem. LOL

                      Can you point me to any lottery in the world that they had 2000 jackpotwinners, if no then you are not living in real statistical world!

                      No. I live in the real actual world, a world where 2000 people would not be allowed to play the same lotto combination. Ask around on the pick3 (top prize $500) or pick4 (top prize $5,000) forums about times when a number is "locked out". You will get plenty of stories. If they lock out $500 prize games, they aren't going to let multi-million dollar games "run free".

                      Besides could you tell me where do you get your information that theykeep most of the money from the lowest prizes category and shift it tonext draw?

                      U.S. lottery websites. The UK lotto site is a bit more interested in signing people up to play. You'll have better luck looking at a U.S. lottery website. Most official lotto websites tell you the money rolls over for lotto style games. Besides, if they took it out and kept it, they wouldn't be able to return 50% to the winners as prizes. 
                      www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/information.do?info=wheremoneygoes

                      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                        time*treat's avatar - radar

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                        Posted: March 10, 2009, 5:22 am - IP Logged

                        I found they do have a disclaimer for your lottery: On the prize breakdown pages

                        †Depending on the number of winners overall and per prize category, prizes may on occasion be less than stated above.

                        Rather than limit the number of bets on a single number like for most games here, they simply shaft the winners when it suits them. So, in the event they slip up and let that many people play the same number and win a very large prize category, they will have some very disappointed winners. "Parimutual" is what some of our state lotto games call it.

                        I think you've never seen 2,000 split the jackpot simply because it's so difficult for even 1 person to win.  I wouldn't want to be around when the rioting started. Here, this "bug" was worked out of most games years ago.

                        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                          Posted: March 10, 2009, 10:49 am - IP Logged

                          Time*treat

                          I am glad that you discovered that they are shafting people in UK as you called it!

                           

                          UK rules; below words from UK Lottery Commission from his letter to my MP

                           

                          <Firstly I should clarify the calculation of the National Lottery Prize Fund. For each draw, 45% of the sales is allocated to Prize Found. All £10 winners are deducted and the reminder divided as follows

                           

                          Match 6 of 6 (jackpot) – 52%

                          Match 5 of 6 + BB - %16

                          Match 5 of 6 – 10%

                          Match 4 of 6 – 22%

                           

                          This method, as set out in the National Lottery Game Rules (a copy of which is held by the National Lottery Retailers and available to players), ensures that the Match 3 of 6 winners all receive their prize. This is why the higher level prize tier payments vary from draw to draw.>>>

                          Above is load of unjust mathematical bull s**t when there is minimum prize of £10 guaranteed!

                           

                          Winning lottery it is not that difficult if they don’t switch numbers between the draws. As long as you’re prepared to gamble away your money with adequate budget set aside for it!

                          All you need is clever system.

                           

                          Moses

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                            Posted: March 24, 2009, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                            This is something I've wondered wondered about for a long time. How are they so sure 2million+ people wont match the £10 minimum prize? Are they just hoping it wont happen? Lots of people choose numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but despite what probability says, reality tells me these numbers wont come up. 

                            Last week I played a set of tickets that had every number between 10 - 19 on different lines EXCEPT the #16, and low and behold the only number between 10 - 19  that came up was #16. Coincidence? I dont think so.

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                              Posted: March 24, 2009, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                              Hi Newb

                              I know exactly what you're saying and you're right anyway! There is not a mathematician in the world can say or predict how many £10 winners will win ahead of the game!

                              This is like I'll give you or anybody £10,000 and we go to casino, the choice of gambling is yours but on one bet only! Can you tell me how much you will win with my 10k and how much you will keep to yourself for your hard work and how much you will pay me back before you place your bet?

                              Is there anybody on this forum can do this? Is there any guarantee that you will win at all? They have got us for FOOLS

                              I have collected over 400 tickets which by rights should have won £100m but my right denied as you mentioned it above by switching numbers, it can be easily done!

                              The only way to beat lottery is to watch this forum!

                              Regards,

                              Moses