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Why do lottery systems start out hot and then go cold?

Topic closed. 22 replies. Last post 8 years ago by ca-dreamin*.

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ArtVandalay's avatar - 3237774708 dd3351ee2c_m.jpg
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Posted: April 30, 2009, 3:04 am - IP Logged

I've been a member of Lottery Post for awhile, now, and I've noticed that there seems to be a pattern concerning lottery systems.  Funny, but when people start a new lottery system or come up with a new lottery system, they often say "When I first started using this system, it was really hot, but after a while it seems to have cooled down some."  And I have to wonder why that is?  Why does a lottery system seem to start out hot and then seem to cool down?  Is it just a problem with perception?  Do we believe or perceive that the system is hot at first when it actually isn't?  Or perhaps as we try to "fine tune" the system, do we fine tune it to a point that it actually cools down?  The reason why I ask is because I developed a new lottery system over a year ago, and when I first started using it, it really did seem to be "hot".  In fact, about a year ago, I actually got 5 out of 6 numbers on the Arizona Pick 6 Lottery.  But since then, I really haven't had much luck with it, but I do know part of the reason.  I play the AZ Pick 6 lottery only when the jackpot is about $4 mill or higher, and for the past year, this lottery doesn't get much higher than $4 mill before somebody wins it, so I haven't been playing the AZ Pick 6 lottery that much.  But I've also used this system to play the Powerball, and when I first started using it, I won $100+ about three times in the first two months that I tried it.  But since then, I may have won $100+ maybe twice in the last ten months.  Has anybody else noticed this phenomena?

Money can't buy you happiness, but I sure could afford the misery that it brings! Wink

    Kaptainess's avatar - hiro bird.jpg

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    Posted: April 30, 2009, 5:27 am - IP Logged

    Every system has to depend on those bouncing balls.  Sure the numbers are ''suppose'' to come out, but one bump of another ball against another will throw the number off in a different direction.  Bouncing balls.  Can't win with them, can't win without them.

    Sometimes I actually hit myself on the head for not betting one up or one down.  I must say I have to stop hitting myself on the head like that or I'll be in serious trouble soon.

    We try hard everyday to get it right, we have the systems, we have the knowledge, and we have the guts to put money on those bouncing balls and hope for the best outcome.

    And to tell you the truth?  Its a real miracle that we win as much as we do.

      four4me's avatar - gate1
      MD
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      Posted: April 30, 2009, 11:51 am - IP Logged
      because
      numbers that are hot tend to stay hot for a while and then become lukewarm or cold.
      numbers that are lukewarm tend to stay lukewarm and then become hot or cold.
      numbers that are cold tend to stay cold or become lukewarm or hot. 
       
      And then they change ball sets and it all starts over again if they change ball sets for every draw there is no way to know which system will keep working.

      Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                     I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
        JAP69's avatar - alas
        South Carolina
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        Posted: April 30, 2009, 11:56 am - IP Logged

         Or perhaps as we try to "fine tune" the system, do we fine tune it to a point that it actually cools down?

        Thats what I think too.
        Get too much into analyzing the numbers.

        MAGA

          time*treat's avatar - radar

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          Posted: April 30, 2009, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

          I've been a member of Lottery Post for awhile, now, and I've noticed that there seems to be a pattern concerning lottery systems.  Funny, but when people start a new lottery system or come up with a new lottery system, they often say "When I first started using this system, it was really hot, but after a while it seems to have cooled down some."  And I have to wonder why that is?  Why does a lottery system seem to start out hot and then seem to cool down?  Is it just a problem with perception?  Do we believe or perceive that the system is hot at first when it actually isn't?  Or perhaps as we try to "fine tune" the system, do we fine tune it to a point that it actually cools down?  The reason why I ask is because I developed a new lottery system over a year ago, and when I first started using it, it really did seem to be "hot".  In fact, about a year ago, I actually got 5 out of 6 numbers on the Arizona Pick 6 Lottery.  But since then, I really haven't had much luck with it, but I do know part of the reason.  I play the AZ Pick 6 lottery only when the jackpot is about $4 mill or higher, and for the past year, this lottery doesn't get much higher than $4 mill before somebody wins it, so I haven't been playing the AZ Pick 6 lottery that much.  But I've also used this system to play the Powerball, and when I first started using it, I won $100+ about three times in the first two months that I tried it.  But since then, I may have won $100+ maybe twice in the last ten months.  Has anybody else noticed this phenomena?

          Curve-fitting.

          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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            stone mtn ga 30088
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            Posted: April 30, 2009, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

              my professional  opinion 90% of the system that we all use seems to stay cold,,,

            my system can tell you what numbers will hit,,,but it cant say which state,,,

            thats why if you have family in other states you can build wealth,,,$$$$$$$$$$$

              BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
              Dump Water Florida
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              Posted: April 30, 2009, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

              Two factors at play with a consistant method applied consistantly.

              All games of chance are a roller coaster ride of highs and lows.   You start to play and it's all up hill until you win, then there is a drop off, maybe some small wins, then another win on a smaller rise, another dip, over and over until we return to the beginning.  Call it enthropy, return to equlibirum, that's how systems work in a negative expectation game.

              Types of draws come in clusters.   Notice how in Pick-3 all different digits and doubles do not alternate 2-1-2-1-2-1.  They come in bunches. 

              Maybe you're only going to have a couple of wins in 100 draws, you might get a lucky win at the point you entered into the game.   If you had started playing a day later you'd be in a dry spell without the bankroll of the win to see you through with a totally different opinion of the system. 

              BobP

                diamondpalace's avatar - Untitled 2.jpg
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                Posted: April 30, 2009, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

                Because it is not flexible. How one define flexible is within the built of the system itself. Within the range of a game, say in Pick 3 the range is 1 - 1,000 there are trends, and behaviors, along with basic components of the game. When studying it the percentage of winning combination comes from sub-group within the range. Which then, the system one come up with have to participate more picks from the larger percentage range than so from the lower percentage range. This said, the system have to also include picks from a both ends of the spectrum, along with what's in between. If the system only concentrate only on the area of high percentage of winning combinations, then it is not flexible, thus when the game starts to turn to the other side, the system becomes warm or cold, and if it remains cold for a long period of time, it becomes ice age. Thats when such system is allowed to be discarded.

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                  Posted: April 30, 2009, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                  This is a good question. I have a system that I thought had high expections that I have been using since the new powerball matrix.

                  I was shocked that I gave up on the system. The positive side is I came up with another system. It seems full proof for now and I am excited.

                  Think out the guy you learn a thousand ways no to make a lightbulb. But this is what I think, find a problem you need to solve and find a way to solve it.

                  Like you question now tell you that numbers are dynamic. You don't need a fixed system.

                    ArtVandalay's avatar - 3237774708 dd3351ee2c_m.jpg
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                    Posted: May 1, 2009, 3:36 am - IP Logged

                    There's also another question that I meant to ask in my original post but forgot.  I've been tracking two lotteries for a little over a year now, the PowerBall lottery and the Arizona Pick 6 lottery.  And sometimes it actually seems like I can track a pattern from one draw to another, or it seems that I can detect a pattern in a series of draws.  And I was wondering if anybody else has seen this phenomena in their systems?

                    Money can't buy you happiness, but I sure could afford the misery that it brings! Wink

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                      Posted: May 1, 2009, 4:35 pm - IP Logged

                      There's also another question that I meant to ask in my original post but forgot.  I've been tracking two lotteries for a little over a year now, the PowerBall lottery and the Arizona Pick 6 lottery.  And sometimes it actually seems like I can track a pattern from one draw to another, or it seems that I can detect a pattern in a series of draws.  And I was wondering if anybody else has seen this phenomena in their systems?

                      There is a pattern. I see the same thing you do and that is if a number is drawn, it is like if fits. Then you ask yourself how come this number fits so perfectly. Because it covered the required difference between numbers. It found the right corner of the bellecurve. It had the right amount of cold and hot numbers. I think I figure why it does that in my new system I can't wait to see if I am  right.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: May 1, 2009, 6:11 pm - IP Logged

                        With the number of states with lotteries and the variety of games being ofered, anyone can "develop a system", come to a conclusion or theory first, and then keep back testing until they fnd something that appears to prove them right.

                        Never forget these things, system sellers "sell the sizzle, not the steak", and they know their target audience is people who sincerely want to believe there is something out there that works.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                          NASHVILLE, TENN
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                          Posted: May 2, 2009, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

                          Another aspect to be considered is how we go about developing our systems.   We tend to use the last 40, 50, or 100 drawings to mathematically find a way to predict the next drawing.  Only if,  in the future,  those same numbers fall into the same positions will our system perform as expected.

                          As the drawings continue, our numbers fall into other positions, other columns but our system remains static.  To us it appears that our algorithym has gone "cold" whereas in fact our algorithym was never "hot".

                          IMHO, to create a usefull algorithym a developer must look past the numbers and their relative positions.  Look instead to find what the numbers are telling us.  Is the sum odd or even?  Is there a repeat number?  Was the first number odd or even?  Was the last number odd or even?  How many odd numbers were drawn? 

                          Of course I have been wrong before ( just ask my wife ) and  ( if I may be permitted a bit of scarcasism ) will probably be wrong again sometime in the far distant future.

                            MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

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                            Posted: May 2, 2009, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

                            Good question. They might just as well start out cold.

                            What is happening is probably that they found a system that gives good results in the beginning and think that's how it usually goes

                            If they find a system giving bad results in the beginning when testing, they scrap it fast.

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                              Posted: May 2, 2009, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

                              To be frank, I never had a ystem that starts out hot. I keep think two to three months in, my system is going to pay off soon.