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Randomness?

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 7 years ago by KnuckleHead.

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KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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Posted: August 25, 2009, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

Afternoon all,

Can anyone tell me if there is a formula to detect the degree of randomness in a specific game?

Also,

Is there a formula to model a mechanical or air blown draw machine?

 

I ask the 1st question because I'm wondering if the randomness is preset @ .50% or with histories of draws and data to show what each number frequency is along with the number skips, can these figures help to discover to what degree a lotteries randomness is? Could knowing the degree of randomness in a specific game help in predicting the next draw?

I'm just going through data trying to figure out a new way to put the data to work.

Any ideas, thanks ahead of time.

          The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: August 25, 2009, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

    There are formulas for figuring the odds of certain events happening like a match 2,3,4,5 and 6.  If certain events happen a lot more or a lot less often than the odds would suggest you probably could say the events happening aren't totally random.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      Posted: August 27, 2009, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

      I don't think there's any way to directly calculate the "randomness" of a game.  What you can do is calculate the difference between the actual results and what you would expect from a perfectly random outcome. That goes beyond what I learned about probability and statistics, nevermind how much I still remember. Here's what I can tell you about it, though. First, probability is all about the relative chances of different outcomes, and can't do anything to predict specific outcomes, and it can't tell you with certainty if a result differs from  the expected results because of a factor other than randomness. Rolling a die 100 times and getting a single 6 and forty 5's is unlikely, but can still be the result of perfectly random probability with a perfectly balanced die. The other is that the vast majority of people won't recognize random results as random. Very few people could list 100 results for a coin they didn't really flip and fool somebody who understands probability, because they think that equal probability means equal results.

      Even if you could acurately measure the "randomness"  of a game, that information would be completely useless, except for the possibility that it would encourage you to keep looking for an accurate prediction. If you could accurately calculate the deviations from perfectly random, that info might be useful, but it would have to be a substantial deviation and you'd have to know which way the deviations occur.

      As for a formula for modeling the motion of the balls in the machine, I'd think it comes down to fairly simple mechanics, but the mechanics are interacting in very complex ways. There's not a chance that you could accurately account for all of the variables.

        KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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        Posted: August 28, 2009, 8:52 am - IP Logged

        Morning RJOH and KY Floyd,

        In the Pick3 game that I follow, my very rudamentary formulas are picking 2 of 3 about 30% of the time. About every 13th to 19th draw, my rudamentary formulas actually pick the correct 3 numbers. I keep my winning numbers in a color coded pattern file based on which line the winning number shows up in. It's looking like a checker board of colors and patterns.

        I have calculated the number frequencies, skips/gaps, the -+ between the past drawn numbers in a column only basis (I call "distance") and a column to column basis (I call "difference").

        I'm looking at the number results and trying to figure out if theres a way to assign a degree of randomness[?] (or would it be probability?) based on these figures.

        I may be off, but, I'm thinking that if a formula could take all of these figures, it may be able to choose the next numbers more accurately.

        OK. Here's where I get more confused. Why do the formulas that I've read through all calculate the probability first (usually based at 50%) instead of analyzing the history and then calculating each numbers own probability based on the history? Wouldn't that be a more accurate calculation?

        None of the other games that I watch are producing any results like the Pick3 game. My formulas are kept in several different formula formats for each game.

        Anyway, I'm looking at this data and trying to figure out a different way to utillize it. Trying to increase the 30% figure and lower the 13th to 19th figure.

        I figure if I post my strange/weird ideas, it may trigger something in someone else. As I've said before, I'm still fairly new at all this so my ideas may not make sense to "old hands".

        But, I'm still trolling for ideas...

        Thanks for indulging my warped mind.

                  The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

          time*treat's avatar - radar

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          Posted: August 28, 2009, 10:32 am - IP Logged

          Afternoon all,

          Can anyone tell me if there is a formula to detect the degree of randomness in a specific game?

          Also,

          Is there a formula to model a mechanical or air blown draw machine?

           

          I ask the 1st question because I'm wondering if the randomness is preset @ .50% or with histories of draws and data to show what each number frequency is along with the number skips, can these figures help to discover to what degree a lotteries randomness is? Could knowing the degree of randomness in a specific game help in predicting the next draw?

          I'm just going through data trying to figure out a new way to put the data to work.

          Any ideas, thanks ahead of time.

          You may be thinking of the Chi-Square test.

          In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
          Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

            KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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            Posted: August 28, 2009, 11:16 am - IP Logged

            You may be thinking of the Chi-Square test.

            Morning time-treat,

            Please don't take this incorrectly...my posted name isn't a joke of any kind. When it comes to math, I am deficient.

            I have extreme trouble attempting to understand/comprehend what I'm reading in discovered PDF files that I think may be helpful. (unfortunately, that's why it appears to all that I ask dumb questions in my posts). I'm reading everything that I can discover, but without the understanding or comprehending what is needed for implementing any of them. I appoligize for my knuckheadedness (just very bad math teachers when I was in school). Without teachers that take an interest in their students understanding the concepts properly, the students get passed along without learning. I'm one of them...

            Anyway, what is Chi-Square test and (please) how could it apply to my idea or mis-idea?

            Thank you.

                      The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

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              NASHVILLE, TENN
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              Posted: August 28, 2009, 11:20 am - IP Logged

              From what I am gathering from my reading about probability, there is little if any attempt on the part of mathematicians to look beyond (how can I put this?) "the odds", "the possibilities", "what might happen".  The reason, I feel, is because there is no definite formula, algorithym, or whatever, which will result in a correct answer each time.

              We all know 4 + 4 = 8.  That is certain.  In the area of probability, we can not go beyond the "certain" with any degree of accuracy.  So mathematicians stay away, preferring just to state the odds.  Us lotto players, on the other hand, are looking past the odds.  We want to know the degree of uncertainty.

              I don't think anyone will develop a formula which will predict the lottory each and every time.  That would be impossible.  What I think we will do is develop a strategy that results in winning more money than we risk over any period of time.  Members are working on it.  I am working on it.  A few inhabitants of this world have claimed to have found it. 

              As far as "degree of uncertianty" goes, there is not a definition for it within the lottory or rather I should say I haven't read of one.  With the many systems posted here, I would think one and only one defintion would be impossible.  Uncertainty has different meanings for different systems.

              The idea of being able to calculate a degree of uncertainty is extremely appealing, tho.

                CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                Posted: August 28, 2009, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

                From what I am gathering from my reading about probability, there is little if any attempt on the part of mathematicians to look beyond (how can I put this?) "the odds", "the possibilities", "what might happen".  The reason, I feel, is because there is no definite formula, algorithym, or whatever, which will result in a correct answer each time.

                We all know 4 + 4 = 8.  That is certain.  In the area of probability, we can not go beyond the "certain" with any degree of accuracy.  So mathematicians stay away, preferring just to state the odds.  Us lotto players, on the other hand, are looking past the odds.  We want to know the degree of uncertainty.

                I don't think anyone will develop a formula which will predict the lottory each and every time.  That would be impossible.  What I think we will do is develop a strategy that results in winning more money than we risk over any period of time.  Members are working on it.  I am working on it.  A few inhabitants of this world have claimed to have found it. 

                As far as "degree of uncertianty" goes, there is not a definition for it within the lottory or rather I should say I haven't read of one.  With the many systems posted here, I would think one and only one defintion would be impossible.  Uncertainty has different meanings for different systems.

                The idea of being able to calculate a degree of uncertainty is extremely appealing, tho.

                There is a formula for "Degree of Certainty". Do a search for Thoth, he has some charts listed.

                  time*treat's avatar - radar

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                  Posted: August 28, 2009, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

                  Morning time-treat,

                  Please don't take this incorrectly...my posted name isn't a joke of any kind. When it comes to math, I am deficient.

                  I have extreme trouble attempting to understand/comprehend what I'm reading in discovered PDF files that I think may be helpful. (unfortunately, that's why it appears to all that I ask dumb questions in my posts). I'm reading everything that I can discover, but without the understanding or comprehending what is needed for implementing any of them. I appoligize for my knuckheadedness (just very bad math teachers when I was in school). Without teachers that take an interest in their students understanding the concepts properly, the students get passed along without learning. I'm one of them...

                  Anyway, what is Chi-Square test and (please) how could it apply to my idea or mis-idea?

                  Thank you.

                  Your orig post asked about degree of randomness; the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is "supposed to happen". The difference tells you how far from "random" your real-world data is.

                  Here is another formula some people like -- Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) -- http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/78519/160313 -- it let's you develop ideas based on how often something should or should not happen, given X number of trials. Raven62 made a chart, here. -- http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/141288/677883

                  In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                  Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                    KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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                    Posted: August 28, 2009, 5:10 pm - IP Logged

                    Thank you both, I'm searching...

                              The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: August 29, 2009, 11:08 am - IP Logged

                      Your orig post asked about degree of randomness; the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is "supposed to happen". The difference tells you how far from "random" your real-world data is.

                      Here is another formula some people like -- Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) -- http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/78519/160313 -- it let's you develop ideas based on how often something should or should not happen, given X number of trials. Raven62 made a chart, here. -- http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/141288/677883

                      the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is "supposed to happen". The difference tells you how far from "random" your real-world data is.

                      What is "supposed to happen" must never happens or else one could always play what is "suppose to happen" and hit a jackpot once in a while.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        time*treat's avatar - radar

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                        Posted: August 29, 2009, 2:32 pm - IP Logged

                        the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is "supposed to happen". The difference tells you how far from "random" your real-world data is.

                        What is "supposed to happen" must never happens or else one could always play what is "suppose to happen" and hit a jackpot once in a while.

                        Well, we know heads is "supposed" to come up half the time, and tails the other half. What we don't know is what will happen on the next flip of the coin.
                        I didn't want KH to get confused by me giving too exact of an explanation.

                        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: August 29, 2009, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

                          Well, we know heads is "supposed" to come up half the time, and tails the other half. What we don't know is what will happen on the next flip of the coin.
                          I didn't want KH to get confused by me giving too exact of an explanation.

                          In that case if you stucked with heads, you would be right half the time.  With most lotteries you only have to be right once, maybe twice is you're real lucky.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            time*treat's avatar - radar

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                            Posted: August 30, 2009, 9:08 am - IP Logged

                            'Reproduced part of the chart with some popular fractions


                            degree of certainty






                            probability# of trials  1/2   1/4   1/6   1/8   1/10  1/16  1/32

                            5.0%       0.07        0.18        0.28        0.38        0.49        0.79        1.62

                            10.0%       0.15        0.37        0.58        0.79        1.00        1.63        3.32

                            15.0%       0.23        0.56        0.89        1.22        1.54        2.52        5.12

                            20.0%       0.32        0.78        1.22        1.67        2.12        3.46        7.03

                            25.0%       0.42        1.00        1.58        2.15        2.73        4.46        9.06

                            30.0%       0.51        1.24        1.96        2.67        3.39        5.53      11.23

                            35.0%       0.62        1.50        2.36        3.23        4.09        6.67      13.57

                            40.0%       0.74        1.78        2.80        3.83        4.85        7.92      16.09

                            45.0%       0.86        2.08        3.28        4.48        5.67        9.26      18.83

                            50.0%       1.00        2.41        3.80        5.19        6.58      10.74      21.83

                            55.0%       1.15        2.78        4.38        5.98        7.58      12.37      25.15

                            60.0%       1.32        3.19        5.03        6.86        8.70      14.20      28.86

                            65.0%       1.51        3.65        5.76        7.86        9.96      16.27      33.07

                            70.0%       1.74        4.19        6.60        9.02      11.43      18.66      37.92

                            75.0%       2.00        4.82        7.60      10.38      13.16      21.48      43.66

                            80.0%       2.32        5.59        8.83      12.05      15.28      24.94      50.69

                            85.0%       2.74        6.59      10.41      14.21      18.01      29.40      59.75

                            90.0%       3.32        8.00      12.63      17.24      21.85      35.68      72.53

                            95.0%       4.32      10.41      16.43      22.43      28.43      46.42      94.36

                            99.0%       6.64      16.01      25.26      34.49      43.71      71.36     145.05

                            99.5%       7.64      18.42      29.06      39.68      50.29      82.10     166.88

                            'Have to truncate at decimal, since you can't have a partial trial.

                            degree of certainty - real-world expectation that the event will happen within X number of trials
                            probability - raw mathematical odds
                            # of trials - where yellow and blue meet ... usually. Big Grin

                            In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                            Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                              KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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                              Posted: August 30, 2009, 11:07 am - IP Logged

                              Morning time-treat,

                              I've read several files that discuss "# of trials". I'm looking at your chart. I comprehended "# of trials" to mean "# of draws to check", is this correct or incorrect?, because how do you check 1/2 or 1/4 , etc. of a games data?

                              I'm missing (not comprehending) somethimg here...

                              Also, what is "truncate at decimal" mean?

                              Thanks to all you for the examples and explanations. I'm trying to get up to speed...

                                        The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...