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# A rough idea of the probability of a rollover.

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: August 27, 2009, 8:45 am - IP Logged

On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was \$330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were \$137,151,667.

The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was:

 k, number of winners p(m,k) 0 45.82% 1 35.76% 2 13.96% 3 3.63% 4 0.71% 5 0.11% 6 0.01%

Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.

CA
United States
Member #2987
December 10, 2003
832 Posts
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 Posted: August 27, 2009, 8:56 am - IP Logged

On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was \$330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were \$137,151,667.

The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was:

 k, number of winners p(m,k) 0 45.82% 1 35.76% 2 13.96% 3 3.63% 4 0.71% 5 0.11% 6 0.01%

Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.

The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

gl

j

Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there.....

Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

=^.^=

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 27, 2009, 10:28 am - IP Logged

The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

gl

j

This is true, but what happened the last time at this prize level is as good an estimate of sales as any.

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