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A rough idea of the probability of a rollover.

Topic closed. 2 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: August 27, 2009, 8:45 am - IP Logged

On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was $330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were $137,151,667.

The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was: 

 

        k, number of winners                p(m,k)
045.82%
135.76%
213.96%
33.63%
40.71%
50.11%
60.01%


Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.

    johnph77's avatar - avatar
    CA
    United States
    Member #2987
    December 10, 2003
    832 Posts
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    Posted: August 27, 2009, 8:56 am - IP Logged

    On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was $330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were $137,151,667.

    The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was: 

     

            k, number of winners                p(m,k)
    045.82%
    135.76%
    213.96%
    33.63%
    40.71%
    50.11%
    60.01%


    Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.

    The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

    gl

    j

    Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

    Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

     =^.^=

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      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #21206
      September 4, 2005
      949 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: August 27, 2009, 10:28 am - IP Logged

      The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

      gl

      j

      This is true, but what happened the last time at this prize level is as good an estimate of sales as any.