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Can it pass the "So what" test?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 7 years ago by RJOh.

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Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Posted: August 30, 2009, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

Let's say we're creating a system, any game, starting completely from scratch.

And let's say we're going to try to to build on it by factors that can pass the "so what" test.

By "so what" I mean things like this, say we're working on a Pick 5 game and someone says that X% of the time there are more odd than even numbers.

Until some lottery out there starts book action on "More odd or evens on the Pick 5", this stat really doesn't tell you that much.

Nice to know, but thus far, so what? If you're trying to build a system to beat a specific game, without being capable of determining exact numbers, not just what kind of numbers, (O, E, H, L, etc...) you don't really have much.

Let's play with this one.

Come up with a factor, a stat, and then think if it really passes the so what test or not, and why or why not.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: August 30, 2009, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

    What you have described pretty much covers every lottery system I've ever seen both personal and commercial.  They all reveal some interesting facts about combinations drawn in the past but "so what?".  Most players want to know how to pick the next winning combination not something that happens 5% of the time and if they pick their combinations a certain way, they'll have a good chance of winning when it happens again.  I'm not sure any software or system can do more than that.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      time*treat's avatar - radar

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      Posted: August 30, 2009, 7:56 pm - IP Logged

      "More odds than evens, X% of the time" isn't exactly "So what?" depending on the value of X.

      That skews certain combinations forward. Imagine if a state's RNG pick-3 started to pull 2 odds and 1 even. Every day. For a week.

      Few people would say "So what?" Some would kvetch, but a smart few would start loading up on "2 odds, 1 even" bets by the 3rd day.

      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: August 30, 2009, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

        Even numbers in the last 437 MegaMillions drawings since the last matrix change had a small edge, both WB and MB. So what?

              WB       MB
          0 = 4        2
          1 = 55       28
          2 = 146      79
          3 = 156      81
          4 = 67       33
          5 = 9        4
                       

        1128/2185     227/437
           51.6%       51.9%

        With 56 WB and 46 MB, there are an equal amount of odd and even numbers in both groups. The combination that won the $333M jackpot had 4 odd and 1 even numbered WB with an odd number MB.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: August 30, 2009, 10:55 pm - IP Logged

          "More odds than evens, X% of the time" isn't exactly "So what?" depending on the value of X.

          That skews certain combinations forward. Imagine if a state's RNG pick-3 started to pull 2 odds and 1 even. Every day. For a week.

          Few people would say "So what?" Some would kvetch, but a smart few would start loading up on "2 odds, 1 even" bets by the 3rd day.

          time*treat

          The lottery loves it when anyone "loads up". Even if there were 2 odds and 1 even for a week nothing says that would continue, it may very well change the night you load up, and without knowing the specific numbers, it's still a so what.

          Unless of course, some body is booking that kind of action, or you are the one booking that kind of action, then you have something.

          Like RJOh said, this applies to most systems.

          The only thing I can think of that's vague yet may be good to know is that in MM (and probably PB) if you chose one of the numbers you've played in the top matrix as the +1 number and the drawing produces such a set of numbers, you'll split less ways if you hit, as most people just choose six different numbers.

          I've seen it over and over where you have several people picking numbers someone will says "23" for example, and someone else says, "We already picked 23."

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: August 31, 2009, 2:28 am - IP Logged

            Pick-5 let's say we're talking about a brand new 5/39 game. 

            I would open up CoverMaster and select . . .

            Pool - 39
            Pick - 5
            Hits - 3
            Match - 5

            [Generate][Timed Random Search][1sec][Up To Max Tickets][8]
            [Start][Finished]

            [Tool Bar][Optimize][Options][Preserve Order][Start][Finish]

            [Tool Bar][Lock All]

            [Generate][Timed Random Search][1sec][Up To Max Tickets][16]
            [Start][Finished]

            [Tool Bar][Optimize][Options][Preserve Order][Start][Finish]

            [Tool Bar][Lock All]

            [Generate][Timed Random Search][1sec][Up To Max Tickets][24]
            [Start][Finished]

            [Tool Bar][Optimize][Options][Preserve Order][Start][Finish]

            [Tool Bar][Lock All]

            [Generate][Timed Random Search][1sec][Up To Max Tickets][32]
            [Start][Finished]

            [Tool Bar][Optimize][Options][Preserve Order][Start][Finish]

            [Tool Bar][Lock All]

            [Generate][Timed Random Search][1sec][Up To Max Tickets][39]
            [Start][Finished]

            [Tool Bar][Optimize][Options][Preserve Order][Start][Finish]

            [Tool Bar][Lock All]

            If everything works out, we have 39 lines with each number appearing exactly 5 times with a 36.68% chance of a three number win.  We also have four sets of 39 numbers in 8 lines of which only 5 lines or less can contain winning numbers, so for each block of 8 lines we've dropped the odds from 5/39 to 5/25 or less. 

            These aren't pointer numbers, though they can be used as such or you can click the CoverMaster Randomize button and change the numbers again and again while retaining the matrix and percentage of guarantee.  See how you would have done if you played these lines.  

            13 16 21 26 36
             1  6  9 17 25
             2  7 20 30 39
             5 15 23 24 27
            14 18 22 28 29
             8 11 12 33 35
             3  4 10 31 34
             7 19 32 37 38
             5 16 17 31 39
             4 12 18 20 21
            13 22 27 30 32
             6  8 10 23 28
            14 25 33 36 37
             2 24 26 29 34
             1  3 15 19 35
             9 11 23 26 38
             4  6 13 19 33
             5 20 25 34 38
             7 10 11 15 29
             8 18 27 31 37
             3  9 14 16 24
            17 28 30 35 36
             1 12 22 37 39
             2  9 21 28 32
            14 19 26 30 31
             4  8 32 36 39
             6 21 27 35 38
             1  2  5 10 18
             4 11 24 25 30
             7 16 22 23 34
            15 17 20 22 33
             3 12 13 25 29
             1 16 27 29 33
             9 10 13 35 37
            14 15 21 34 39
             2 12 19 23 36
             3  5  7 26 28
             6 11 20 31 32
             8 17 18 24 38
            end 39 lines

            Here are the same 39 lines sorted for easier checking . . .

            1  2  5 10 18
             1  3 15 19 35
             1  6  9 17 25
             1  7 13 24 31
             1 12 22 37 39
             1 16 27 29 33
             2  7 20 30 39
             2  9 21 28 32
             2 12 19 23 36
             2 24 26 29 34
             3  4 10 31 34
             3  5  7 26 28
             3  9 14 16 24
             3 12 13 25 29
             4  6 13 19 33
             4  8 32 36 39
             4 11 24 25 30
             4 12 18 20 21
             5 15 23 24 27
             5 16 17 31 39
             5 20 25 34 38
             6  8 10 23 28
             6 11 20 31 32
             6 21 27 35 38
             7 10 11 15 29
             7 16 22 23 34
             7 19 32 37 38
             8 11 12 33 35
             8 17 18 24 38
             8 18 27 31 37
             9 10 13 35 37
             9 11 23 26 38
            13 16 21 26 36
            13 22 27 30 32
            14 15 21 34 39
            14 18 22 28 29
            14 19 26 30 31
            14 25 33 36 37
            15 17 20 22 33
            17 28 30 35 36
            end 39 lines

            BobP

              time*treat's avatar - radar

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              Posted: August 31, 2009, 7:18 am - IP Logged

              time*treat

              The lottery loves it when anyone "loads up". Even if there were 2 odds and 1 even for a week nothing says that would continue, it may very well change the night you load up, and without knowing the specific numbers, it's still a so what.

              Unless of course, some body is booking that kind of action, or you are the one booking that kind of action, then you have something.

              Like RJOh said, this applies to most systems.

              The only thing I can think of that's vague yet may be good to know is that in MM (and probably PB) if you chose one of the numbers you've played in the top matrix as the +1 number and the drawing produces such a set of numbers, you'll split less ways if you hit, as most people just choose six different numbers.

              I've seen it over and over where you have several people picking numbers someone will says "23" for example, and someone else says, "We already picked 23."

              Kansas lottery drawing glitch picks same numbers for 3 days (2005)
              http://www.lotterypost.com/news/125196

              "A computerized drawing system glitch caused the Kansas Lottery's Pick 3 game to draw identical numbers in the same order three days straight, from Dec. 16 through Sunday.

              Apparently some players caught on. By day three of picking 5-0-9, ticket sales were $12,223,and the payout was $23,480, which is 192 percent of sales. The usual payout is 50 percent to 60 percent, Kansas Lottery executive director Ed Van Petten said."

              Fortune cookie bet made Powerball lottery players rich (2005)
              http://www.lotterypost.com/news/112702

              "Chuck Strutt, executive director of the Multi-State Lottery Association, which runs Powerball, said on Monday that the panic began at 11:30 p.m. March 30 when he got a call from a worried staff member.

              "We didn't sleep a lot that night," Mr. Strutt said. "Is there someone trying to cheat the system?"

              Investigators visited dozens of Chinese restaurants, takeouts and buffets. Then they called fortune cookie distributors and learned that many different brands of fortune cookies come from the same Long Island City factory, which is owned by Wonton Food and churns out four million a day."

              -------------------------------------------

              Loves it? Really? OK.

              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                Posted: August 31, 2009, 9:03 am - IP Logged

                Hi,

                  Why beat a stst to death that doesn't yield what you want? For me, I'll take that stat in a different direction. For example, how often do 2O/3E repeat, how often does 30/2e follow a 2o/3E pick, ...etc.

                What Odds/Evens are hot or cold?....Compare Odds/Evens to other filtering criteria.

                Just a thought.

                You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                  BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                  Dump Water Florida
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                  Posted: August 31, 2009, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                  After I posted the list of 39 combinations further up in this thread I went to the Lottery Post Results page and looked at every Pick-5 draw showing on Sunday, so if the last Pick-5 draw was Friday, I used that as the draw for that state.

                  All in all there were multiple 2 number hits for every game, in Florida you win a free Quick Pick for 2 numbers.

                  There were 12 hits for 3 numbers, more if you count two were multi-state.

                  Hit IL+IA, VA, MA, MN, FL, PA, NC, WA, TN, SC, KY, WildCard-Multi

                  One hit for 4 numbers in the Tri-State Megaball game

                  BobP

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                    Posted: August 31, 2009, 5:30 pm - IP Logged

                    After I posted the list of 39 combinations further up in this thread I went to the Lottery Post Results page and looked at every Pick-5 draw showing on Sunday, so if the last Pick-5 draw was Friday, I used that as the draw for that state.

                    All in all there were multiple 2 number hits for every game, in Florida you win a free Quick Pick for 2 numbers.

                    There were 12 hits for 3 numbers, more if you count two were multi-state.

                    Hit IL+IA, VA, MA, MN, FL, PA, NC, WA, TN, SC, KY, WildCard-Multi

                    One hit for 4 numbers in the Tri-State Megaball game

                    BobP

                    BobP

                    Using the Illinois 5/39 payoffs, 2 of 5 pays $1, 3 of 5 pays $10, 4 of 5 pays $100.

                    However, if the list was played live (real money), you have 13 states listed above, the wild-Card Multi, and Tri-State Megaball.

                    That comes top 15 X's 39 = $585 (dollar plays).

                    Using the Illinois pay table above, you have

                    2 X 39 = $78

                    12 X 10 = $120

                    1 X 100= 100

                    ________________

                    = $298

                     $585

                    -$298

                    _______

                    = - $287 loser

                    = SO WHAT

                    If I'm runing a lottery I'm going to be delighted you're playing like this, or telling others to play like this. 

                    We're not exactly talking "running a toothpick intop a lumberyard."

                    Also, using all lottery results from multiple states is a bit much to try and proive a point that isn't valid. If you could show comparable results focused on a particular game that would be one thing.

                    I know you put a lot of work into that, but I don't think it passes the so what test.

                    Coming up with a "fact" or theory and then keep researching until you have enough data to "prove" it is an old trick, used frequently by politicians.

                    _____________________________

                    time*treat

                    The fortune cookie incident is definitely a mystical thing, and the same number hitting three times is an abberation, but in both instances you would still need a crystal ball to act on them.

                    Wehn the same number hit two days in a row, would you really have played it the third day?

                    ______________________________

                    Something people fail to understand about systems is that even the ones that are based on actual research (and not made up results) are based on millions of results. But you're not going to play millions of drawings.

                    Using blackjack szysxtems as an example, 99% of them tell you to never take insurance. That's fine and dandy for research based on millions of hands. But you read such a book, go out and play, and you're a $5 bettor and tonight's the night you went crazy and "let it ride" and now have a $200 bet out there and a cute little 21 dealer shows an ace and says, "Insurance?"

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      time*treat's avatar - radar

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                      Posted: August 31, 2009, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

                      @CT

                      Ok, if we stick to pick 5, then I think we have to ask how big X% is. With P5 (in most states) you don't have to be right very often to do quite nicely.

                      Also, we need to know the matrix size to use certain filters; your odd-count/even-count distribution will be different if the maxrix size is odd (35,37,39), than if the matrix size is even (36,38,40)

                      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: September 1, 2009, 1:45 am - IP Logged

                        time*treat

                        No need to stick to Pick 5, but as far as jackpot games go if you're going to hit a jackpot in your lifetime it's certainly more likely to be a Pick 5 than a Pick 6 or 5 + 1.

                        But for Pick 5 a 5/39 matrix is good.

                        As far as systems, for example, let's ay that we know for a particular game (specific game, Pick 5 and state) with a 5/38 matris that there are 19 "perimeter" numbers - along the outside of the playslip, top and bottom lines and outer columns, and 20 "inside" numbers.

                        And let's say for this game over the last 20 draws that the results aren't reflecting what you think they would. Instead there's a noticeable proponderance  of perimeter numbers. So what. Like I said with odd and even, until you start seeing somewhere on the playslip where you can bet one over the other, so what.

                        That's just one example of dozens. Most system sellers do not expect their customers to think things through that far. They themselves don't play the amounts that their own systems call for.

                        Basically what I'm saying here is despite a whole lot of talk, hype, and hoopla we've yet to see a game change or become unavailable because somebody with a system cracked the code.

                        We have seen matrixes expand but that was only to try and create bigger and bigger jackpots. And that in itself was hype with Mega Millions- newspaper headlines in MM states said "California to join MegaMillions, possible $500,000,000 jackpots coming." Well we haven't seen that yet, either.

                        Personally I believe that at best, some people might have ways of doping out the Pick 3 where they get to collect a payoff a few times a week, but I also believe that in the long run those same people aren't even breaking even.

                        Shelling out $150 and "winning" $40 is not a win.

                        Systems are so popular and east to peddle because players want so desperately to believe there is one.

                        Many system sellers (commercial) are addicted players that are just trying to raise money so they can go out and play more.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                          Dump Water Florida
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                          Posted: September 1, 2009, 3:30 am - IP Logged

                          "Most ball games are lost, not won."  Casey Stengel

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: September 1, 2009, 9:47 am - IP Logged

                            "Most ball games are lost, not won."  Casey Stengel

                            When you sorted your list of 39 combinations, you ended up with 40.  Where did the 1 7 13 24 31 come from?

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              time*treat's avatar - radar

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                              Posted: September 1, 2009, 10:52 am - IP Logged

                              There are two basic ways to go on short-term trends:

                              1) design a system that adjusts itself to short-term trends or
                              2) design a system that is based on a longer haul pattern and ignores short term variances.

                              The hit-the-target exercises in Statistical Process Control come to mind... and also roulette (will RED come up for the fourth time in a row or will BLACK finally show?)

                              When a game gets dropped, I don't expect that even if someone had cracked its "code" that that fact would be publicized. Wink
                              I have never heard anything other than "lack of public interest" as a reason for dropped games.

                              Before we get too far gone, are we talking about pencil & paper systems or more complex mechanical ones?
                              With pencil & paper methods, there is a habit of telling yourself you would have made this or that adjustment to get the hit. (That's one reason dreck methods like "x/pi" and "magic square" persist; they let you see, usually only after the drawing, whatever the winning number ... was.) Roll Eyes
                              Computer modeling doesn't let you trick yourself like that.

                              In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                              Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.