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Can it pass the "So what" test?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 7 years ago by RJOh.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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Posted: September 1, 2009, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

There are two basic ways to go on short-term trends:

1) design a system that adjusts itself to short-term trends or
2) design a system that is based on a longer haul pattern and ignores short term variances.

The hit-the-target exercises in Statistical Process Control come to mind... and also roulette (will RED come up for the fourth time in a row or will BLACK finally show?)

When a game gets dropped, I don't expect that even if someone had cracked its "code" that that fact would be publicized. Wink
I have never heard anything other than "lack of public interest" as a reason for dropped games.

Before we get too far gone, are we talking about pencil & paper systems or more complex mechanical ones?
With pencil & paper methods, there is a habit of telling yourself you would have made this or that adjustment to get the hit. (That's one reason dreck methods like "x/pi" and "magic square" persist; they let you see, usually only after the drawing, whatever the winning number ... was.) Roll Eyes
Computer modeling doesn't let you trick yourself like that.

"I have never heard anything other than "lack of public interest" as a reason for dropped games."

When Ohio dropped SuperLottoPlus (6/49+1) they used a similar excuse but I suspect they could no longer afford to increase the jackpot by $2M after every roll because it wasn't attracting the number of players it once did.  When the game first started it was the best game in the area and many of its players were from the surrounding states.  At surrounding states added better local games along with PowerBall and BigGame players started playing in their own states and Ohioan started going to those states to play PowerBall and BigGame.

Ohio finally joined BigGame and it became MegaMillions and replaced SuperLottoPlus with Lot'O Play which only lasted a year.  Because of popular demands ;), they bought back the 6/49 game with Classic Lotto which would increase $100K or more if it rolled depending on sales.   I don't know why states don't just come out and say they are dropping a game because it not making enough money for them.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    time*treat's avatar - radar

    United States
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    March 30, 2005
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    Posted: September 1, 2009, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

    We had a game called red-white-blue; ten numbers in each color, two numbers pulled from each group (2 red, two white, 2 blue) and you had to match number and color so 1,2,3,4,5,6 was not the same as 1,2,3,4,5,6. 'Took one look at that game and said ... ok, well, nevermind what I saidBig Grin. That game died rather quickly, though. 

    'Could probably do a whole thread on "Games that needed to be taken behind the shed and killed with a blunt object". Smash

    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
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      June 5, 2002
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      Posted: September 1, 2009, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

      When you sorted your list of 39 combinations, you ended up with 40.  Where did the 1 7 13 24 31 come from?

      Aw crap, never get old.  That was the 40th line I skipped when posting the build, then it got mixed in when I sorted the lines and another was left out.

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: September 1, 2009, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

        BobP,

        Since Casey Stengel meant games are lost by errors, bonehead plays, bad base running, etc., how can we apply that to lotto?

        "Falling in live" with a system even though it just doesn't produce winners?

        RJOH,

        Goos examples.

        time*treat,

        The Union Plaza (at the time, now it's the Plaza I think) in Vegas wanted to increase the take in Keno. This was prety simple and did the trick- for the same numbers chosen they offered a second drawing, so called the first one "Red game" and the second one "Green game". Whatever the price of the ticket was naturally doubled to play both games.

        I keep thinking some day we're going to see a kind of twist on this in some lotto game.

         

         

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
          Dump Water Florida
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          Posted: September 1, 2009, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

          BobP,

          Since Casey Stengel meant games are lost by errors, bonehead plays, bad base running, etc., how can we apply that to lotto?

          "Falling in live" with a system even though it just doesn't produce winners?

          RJOH,

          Goos examples.

          time*treat,

          The Union Plaza (at the time, now it's the Plaza I think) in Vegas wanted to increase the take in Keno. This was prety simple and did the trick- for the same numbers chosen they offered a second drawing, so called the first one "Red game" and the second one "Green game". Whatever the price of the ticket was naturally doubled to play both games.

          I keep thinking some day we're going to see a kind of twist on this in some lotto game.

           

           

          "Most ball games are lost, not won."  Casey Stengel

          "BobP,

          Since Casey Stengel meant games are lost by errors, bonehead plays, bad base running, etc., how can we apply that to lotto?"

          Meant it as bit of humor because lotto is a ball game, now I'm not so sure what he meant as every base ball game has one winner and one loser, so how can more games be lost then won? 

          I appreciate your attempt to look for something beyond the usual suspects.

          BobP

          http://www.geocities.com/wallstreet/7746/hwc.html

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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            Posted: September 2, 2009, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

            BobP

            He meant that of the ganes a team lost, they "beat themselves", not that the other team outplayed them. John Madden basically said the same thing about pro football, statistically more games are decided by turnovers.

            For the lotto and a "so what" test, I'm trying to do a "reverse" approach here. Picture ourselves as on a lottery commission and we're given an assignment to see if anyone out there has come up with something we should be concerned about, not cheating, but something that produced consistent jackpot and second tier winners.

            The lotteries are very well aware that most lower prizes just go right back into the lotto.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: September 2, 2009, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

              "For the lotto and a "so what" test, I'm trying to do a "reverse" approach here. Picture ourselves as on a lottery commission and we're given an assignment to see if anyone out there has come up with something we should be concerned about, not cheating, but something that produced consistent jackpot and second tier winners."

              I would think that's a permanent assignment for every lottery commission.  They probably constantly monitor sales and payouts as was mentioned in the PowerBall story concerning the fortune cookies incident when over 100 players won the second tier prize without a significant increase in sales.  If anyone ever came up with such a system, I doubt if they would do anything to bring attention to themselves before they had a chance to win a few jackpots.  If someone won several second tier prizes consistently it's more likely they would be investigated for money laundering because it would be thought they were buying up winners with dirty money and cashing them in for clean money.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
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                bashley572's avatar - starwars14
                West Side of Sunny Florida
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                Posted: September 3, 2009, 5:54 am - IP Logged

                GREAT discussion everyone!! Coin Toss, I like the idea you are proposing as I try to look at the lottery every way possible to look for trends or 'ways' it might be moving.  

                This is the BEST of LP as there is an open discussion of ideas!

                Money won is twice as good as money earned!

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: September 4, 2009, 12:58 am - IP Logged

                  RJOh,

                  Yeah, I'm pretty sure the lotteries have people doing just that (what a job!).

                  bashlet572

                  Thanks. It is nice when we get discussions going.

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    time*treat's avatar - radar

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                    Posted: September 4, 2009, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

                    BobP

                    He meant that of the ganes a team lost, they "beat themselves", not that the other team outplayed them. John Madden basically said the same thing about pro football, statistically more games are decided by turnovers.

                    For the lotto and a "so what" test, I'm trying to do a "reverse" approach here. Picture ourselves as on a lottery commission and we're given an assignment to see if anyone out there has come up with something we should be concerned about, not cheating, but something that produced consistent jackpot and second tier winners.

                    The lotteries are very well aware that most lower prizes just go right back into the lotto.

                    The lotteries do their rigging in the odds/payout space; any type of deliberate encoding of the numbers runs the risk of being DEcoded.

                    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                      Dump Water Florida
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                      Posted: September 6, 2009, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

                      I was thinking what worries lottery directors doesn't have to be what any one player does, and could include an idea distributed across enough players to make a difference. 

                      For example a random number selction system for Pick-5 that includes a wheel with 3 key numbers against all the other numbers.  For 5/39 this would take only 18 lines and guarantee two 4 number prizes when the 3 keys are correct. 

                      For Pick-6 a wheel with 4 key numbers against all the other numbers.  For 6/49 this would take 23 lines and guarantee two 5 number prizes with the 4 keys correct.  In fact the odds of a jackpot with 4 keys correct would be pretty good. 

                      BobP

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: September 6, 2009, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                        I was thinking what worries lottery directors doesn't have to be what any one player does, and could include an idea distributed across enough players to make a difference. 

                        For example a random number selction system for Pick-5 that includes a wheel with 3 key numbers against all the other numbers.  For 5/39 this would take only 18 lines and guarantee two 4 number prizes when the 3 keys are correct. 

                        For Pick-6 a wheel with 4 key numbers against all the other numbers.  For 6/49 this would take 23 lines and guarantee two 5 number prizes with the 4 keys correct.  In fact the odds of a jackpot with 4 keys correct would be pretty good. 

                        BobP

                        I would think players having 3 numbers right in every combination they played in a 5/39 game would upset the apple cart even if they only played one line and the same for a 6/49 game if they had 4 numbers right.  Either one is not likely to happen very often.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
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