|Posted: April 19, 2010, 9:26 pm - IP Logged|
"expert in higher mathematics you could win the lottery"
Actually lottery probabilities or mathematics are not that difficult for you to calculate them yourself. They are advertised to you in every game by the way.
let say that you were tasked to create a lotto game:
the typical setup will be something like: (This is a very simplified model that doesn't include logistics, operations, advertisments etc)
1st step: Is to generate trust in your business model. randomnes, transparency and security from manipulation will do this.
2nd step: is to generate interests in the game: (usually a top prize of $10 million and above is a good starting point + other small prizes so people get rewarded for some partial success so they come back for another try. These can also be capped to avoid any potential liability depending on how they are set)
3rd step: setting the odds and payouts: Lets begin the discussion as an example by setting the odds at 1:1 for all prizes. Now this would not be very good since there are no profits to be made + there will be no risk involved you simply pay a dollar win a dollar. No risk, no real gaming involved so it will be very boring. You would not set the odds for the top prize at for example 1:3,000,000 either because someone could simply purchase the jackpot and make a profit. you want your lottery to make the profit. therefore there needs to be a house advantage between odds and payouts (an edge will be given to all smaller prizes you have to pay).
So lets consider then setting the odds at 1:100,000,000. Now this margin does a few things. It guarantees the pot will not be bought outright + leaves enough room in for the payout of the smaller prizes + creates a few rollovers to make it more exciting. The jackpot odds is 10:1 to payout amounts initially. The jackpot after each rollover will be increased at a rate of = sales - operational expenses - all prize payouts. The formula is simple then. By setting the payouts with regard to odds you garantee a rate of return equal to the ratio you set. Since the game is random the expected probability distributions will follow since the participation rate is large (in the millions). this was just the "skinny' simply to show how the basic lottery is set up. You can take a look at more specific numbers from the megamillions or powerball number of winners in each category and compare that to all prize amounts and total sales and odds. Crunch and add the numbers yourself for a jackpot run from beginning to the end of run and nothing surprising will be noticed. The game rules odds:payouts are specifically made to guarantee a profit for the state>> they even thell you that: VA benefits schools, PA benefits senior citizen programs...
so why do people think they can predict random, or lottery is rigged and such things...In poker the saying is a chip and a chair. Lottery is a buck $ and hope.