|Posted: June 24, 2010, 4:45 pm - IP Logged|
Many complex problems in math when math just began were not solve (time of the greeks for example), it took several centuries or 1 or 2 mileniun for them to be solved...Other math problems took: 100 years or 200 years to be solved....I remember hearing that in the last 20 years there have been: 3 problems from the: 1500´s that were solved....One of the mathematicians that solved it, turn down: a $1 Million reward prize...Some think he has mental problems...I read it on the internet...Modern lottery only has: either 20 years or 50 years from been created..
Do you think they will eventually solved the lottery....
The necessary complex math was done when the lottery games were designed, Pumpi. If you look at the statistic of any state pick-3 game, you'll see the payoffs over time have averaged around 50% so if the lottery sells $200 million tickets a year, they should expect to keep $100 million as profit. To get more volume of play, the lotteries offer other bets on same outcome that still retains the about 50% profit margin.
To insure there is no mathematical way to predict the outcome and to make it fair for every lottery player, the lotteries use what they believe is the most random method for the drawings. Over time (thousands of drawings) the results are pretty close to the probable outcome; 72% of the numbers have three different digits and about 72% of all drawings were three different digits.
Years ago when the pick-3 was the only game in town, players developed methods and systems trying to win $500 for a $1 bet. The game became very popular and still is because we can bet a buck on any 3 digit number and have a chance to win $500. Just start a thread in the Mystical forum saying you dreamed about a pickle and you'll get several numbers that play for "pickle"; play all or any of the numbers and even if you don't win, you're only out a couple of bucks. Thousands of players repeat this process every day and the lotteries have a cash cow.
A while back you posted a list of 45 pick-3 doubles and said "theoretically" they should get a number of hits in every state each day every day. I don't know if you did the math, but the probability is in 27% of the 62 daily drawings (16.74) a double should be drawn. Since you listed 50% of all the doubles, the probability is on average 8 of those combos will be drawn somewhere every day. It might look good on paper but when you do the math: $45 X 62 = $2790 cost of play and $166 x 8 = $1328 expected return, you can see it's a terrible bet. Most LP members that give their "all states" predictions either don't know the math or do and they're just looking for bragging rights when other somewhat gullible LP members congratulate them.
"Do you think they will eventually solved the lottery...."
Using spreads or an ordered list, it might be possible create a system that could catch a jackpot in 5/39 pick-5 game or a 6/49 lotto game. Other than that, nobody can prove those ping pong balls have memories or take turns entering the tube.