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Statistical Analysis of Lottery Results

Topic closed. 42 replies. Last post 6 years ago by LANTERN.

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United States
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July 10, 2010
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Posted: August 23, 2010, 1:32 am - IP Logged

Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

http://statpages.org/javasta2.html


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
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    Posted: September 3, 2010, 1:30 am - IP Logged

    Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

    http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

    Since there are a lot of Excel users here, I thought there might at least be interest in this:

    http://statpages.org/javasta2.html#Excel


      United States
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      July 10, 2010
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      Posted: September 3, 2010, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

      Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

      http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

      This is a concise summary of the history of the development of Probability Theory.  If you dig deeper, especially into the work of Bernoulli, you will understand why I made the comment [somewhere] in the Fooled By Randomness Thread that Bernoulli would roll over in his grave if he could read some of the posts here.  Why not seek the TRUTH?

      http://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/cs6751_97_winter/Topics/stat-meas/probHist.html

      From Calculus, Volume II by Tom M. Apostol (2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1969 ):

      "A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a French nobleman with an interest in gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-established gambling rule led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.

      This problem and others posed by de Méré led to an exchange of letters between Pascal and Fermat in which the fundamental principles of probability theory were formulated for the first time. Although a few special problems on games of chance had been solved by some Italian mathematicians in the 15th and 16th centuries, no general theory was developed before this famous correspondence.

      The Dutch scientist Christian Huygens, a teacher of Leibniz, learned of this correspondence and shortly thereafter (in 1657) published the first book on probability; entitled De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, it was a treatise on problems associated with gambling. Because of the inherent appeal of games of chance, probability theory soon became popular, and the subject developed rapidly during the 18th century. The major contributors during this period were Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705) and Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754).

      In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827) introduced a host of new ideas and mathematical techniques in his book, Théorie Analytique des Probabilités. Before Laplace, probability theory was solely concerned with developing a mathematical analysis of games of chance. Laplace applied probabilistic ideas to many scientific and practical problems. The theory of errors, actuarial mathematics, and statistical mechanics are examples of some of the important applications of probability theory developed in the l9th century.

      Like so many other branches of mathematics, the development of probability theory has been stimulated by the variety of its applications. Conversely, each advance in the theory has enlarged the scope of its influence. Mathematical statistics is one important branch of applied probability; other applications occur in such widely different fields as genetics, psychology, economics, and engineering. Many workers have contributed to the theory since Laplace's time; among the most important are Chebyshev, Markov, von Mises, and Kolmogorov.

      One of the difficulties in developing a mathematical theory of probability has been to arrive at a definition of probability that is precise enough for use in mathematics, yet comprehensive enough to be applicable to a wide range of phenomena. The search for a widely acceptable definition took nearly three centuries and was marked by much controversy. The matter was finally resolved in the 20th century by treating probability theory on an axiomatic basis. In 1933 a monograph by a Russian mathematician A. Kolmogorov outlined an axiomatic approach that forms the basis for the modern theory. (Kolmogorov's monograph is available in English translation as Foundations of Probability Theory, Chelsea, New York, 1950.) Since then the ideas have been refined somewhat and probability theory is now part of a more general discipline known as measure theory."

       


        United States
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        Posted: September 7, 2010, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

        Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

        http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

        Quantum Mechanics and Probability Calculus...

          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
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          Posted: September 16, 2010, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

          Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

          http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

          This is a fun read...

          http://www.gamblingplanet.org/editorial/Winning-the-lottery-statistics-and-superstitions/100809


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
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            Posted: September 20, 2010, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

            Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

            http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

            For the Scientifically Curious, here is a site with challenging articles...

            http://www.santafe.edu/


              United States
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              July 10, 2010
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              Posted: September 23, 2010, 1:21 am - IP Logged

              Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

              http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

              The Truth About Deception !!

              http://www.santafe.edu/news/item/truth-about-deception-harrington-gell-mann-bergstrom/


                United States
                Member #93947
                July 10, 2010
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                Posted: October 10, 2010, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

                http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

                How could one person hit 2 Lottery Jackpots...

                IN THE SAME DAY? !!

                Listen in here to find out...

                http://www.radiolab.org/2009/jun/15/

                --Jimmy4164


                  United States
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                  July 10, 2010
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                  Posted: October 12, 2010, 3:49 pm - IP Logged

                  Here is a great source for FREE Statistical Software!

                  http://statpages.org/javasta2.html

                  Here is a "Must Read" for all those who hope to be able to
                  predict future lottery draws.  Chapter 2 contains the most
                  applicable information.

                  http://ee.stanford.edu/~gray/sp.pdf

                  The following excerpts are from the Preface:

                  Nothing in nature is random . . . A thing appears random
                  only through the incompleteness of our knowledge.
                  Spinoza, Ethics I
                   
                  (An LP Poster uses a paraphrase of this Spinoza quote as
                  his signature; I hope he checks out this book.)

                  I do not believe that God rolls dice.
                  attributed to Einstein

                  Laplace  argued to the effect that given complete knowledge
                  of the physics of an experiment, the outcome must always be
                  predictable. This metaphysical argument must be tempered
                  with several facts. The relevant parameters may  not be
                  measurable with sufficient precision due to mechanical or
                  theoretical limits. For example, the uncertainty principle
                  prevents the simultaneous accurate knowledge of both
                  position and momentum. The deterministic functions may be
                  too complex to compute in finite time. The computer itself
                  may make errors due to power failures, lightning, or the
                  general perfidy of inanimate objects. The experiment could
                  take place in a remote location with the parameters unknown
                  to the observer; for example, in a communication link, the
                  transmitted message is unknown a priori, for if it were not,
                  there would be no need for communication. The results of
                  the experiment could be reported by an unreliable witness -
                  either incompetent or dishonest. For these and other reasons,
                  it is useful to have a theory for the analysis and synthesis of
                  processes that behave in a random or unpredictable manner.
                  The goal is to construct mathematical models that lead to
                  reasonably accurate prediction of the long-term average
                  behavior of random processes. The theory should produce
                  good estimates of the average behavior of real processes and
                  thereby correct theoretical derivations with measurable results.
                   
                  (Sound Interesting?)
                  --Jimmy4164
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                    NASHVILLE, TENN
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                    Posted: October 14, 2010, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

                    I do not think anyone on this site believes it is possible to mathematicqlly predict the outcome of each and every draw at any given time or place.  Mathemantics deals only wwith repeatable results. 

                    What we are looking for is an algorithym which will make playing the lottory profitable.  We fully expect to "not win" most of the time but hope, when the "win" does come, the reward far exceeds the cost.

                    Statistics only help us to see the problem we face; not a solution to the problem.  So we try our best, searching, experimenting, backtesting, thinking, and talking with others who share our passions.

                    To date, I know of no algorithym which does what we wish.  That is not to say one does not exist.  We do not allow the fact that a successful algorithym has not been found to deter us from our crusade.  We will plod along.  We will succeed.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
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                      March 24, 2001
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                      Posted: October 14, 2010, 9:38 pm - IP Logged

                      As GASMETERGUY says, no reasonable player would believes it's possible to mathematically predict the outcomes of each drawing every time but I believe it's possible to come up with a system that improves the odds of winning.  I doubt if playing lotteries can ever be profitable without winning a few second prizes or eventually a jackpot.  If such a system or algorithm is ever developed we'll probably read about one person or group winning several lottery jackpots within a year, I doubt if they would be selling or sharing it.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       


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                        Posted: October 14, 2010, 11:51 pm - IP Logged

                        I do not think anyone on this site believes it is possible to mathematicqlly predict the outcome of each and every draw at any given time or place.  Mathemantics deals only wwith repeatable results. 

                        What we are looking for is an algorithym which will make playing the lottory profitable.  We fully expect to "not win" most of the time but hope, when the "win" does come, the reward far exceeds the cost.

                        Statistics only help us to see the problem we face; not a solution to the problem.  So we try our best, searching, experimenting, backtesting, thinking, and talking with others who share our passions.

                        To date, I know of no algorithym which does what we wish.  That is not to say one does not exist.  We do not allow the fact that a successful algorithym has not been found to deter us from our crusade.  We will plod along.  We will succeed.

                        GASMETERGUY,

                        "I do not think anyone on this site believes it is possible to mathematicqlly predict the outcome of each and every draw at any given time or place."

                        Although you must admit there are some here who are not as realistic as you, I don't think anyone has ever claimed that such a feat is possible!  I have never ascribed that belief to anyone.  What I have noticed, and dissented on, is the belief of many that, "an algorithym which will make playing the lottory profitable" exists.  For the reasons given in the discussion above of Laplace's metaphysical statement, I don't think you are going to find one.  In one of my earlier posts I compared the chances of succeeding to the chances of winning a prize playing a Tchaikovsky Piano Concerto wearing boxing gloves!  This becomes more meaningful when you close your eyes and contemplate the chaotic movements of ping pong balls in their respective machines.  Of course, as Laplace asserted, there are laws of physics at play that could possibly, not plausibly, in some excrutiatingly complex way, be used to predict ball movements microseconds in advance.  But will this allow you to buy the right ticket before the draw?  As for using number theory, or pattern observations, or eliminating Pick-5 sets that contain certain numbers of specific digits, there are simple computer simulation techniques that can be used to prove or disprove these kinds of claims.  All these tests require is sufficient specification to allow a programmer to write the code.  System proponents have been quite reticent in this regard.  I have shown here how several different methods of choosing numbers to bet on Pick-3 games are no better than playing QPs, but people have unending ways of convincing themselves that there is something lacking in my analysis, most of them illogical, and they continue to believe in their systems.  I am currently building a database of Powerball predictions and results.  We shall see what the result of that is.

                        You sound reasonable, and several of your reasons above are why I play, and enjoy playing the lottery.

                        --Jimmy4164


                          United States
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                          Posted: October 14, 2010, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

                          As GASMETERGUY says, no reasonable player would believes it's possible to mathematically predict the outcomes of each drawing every time but I believe it's possible to come up with a system that improves the odds of winning.  I doubt if playing lotteries can ever be profitable without winning a few second prizes or eventually a jackpot.  If such a system or algorithm is ever developed we'll probably read about one person or group winning several lottery jackpots within a year, I doubt if they would be selling or sharing it.

                          RJOh,

                          "I believe it's possible to come up with a system that improves the odds of winning."

                          If you're referring to winning money over the long haul, I disagree.

                          If you mean increasing the NUMBER of WINNING TICKETS, I agree!

                          "I doubt if playing lotteries can ever be profitable without winning a few second prizes or eventually a jackpot."

                          I Agree! Smiley

                          --Jimmy4164

                            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                            adelaide sa
                            Australia
                            Member #37136
                            April 11, 2006
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                            Posted: October 15, 2010, 12:51 am - IP Logged

                            grabbed gnumerics, its a spreadsheet, i candeal with themm, and has a lot os statistical routines, hopefull i can find something i can use

                            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

                            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297


                              United States
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                              July 10, 2010
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                              Posted: October 15, 2010, 2:58 am - IP Logged

                              grabbed gnumerics, its a spreadsheet, i candeal with themm, and has a lot os statistical routines, hopefull i can find something i can use

                              Must be ESP!

                              I was in the middle of installing MinGW so I could begin the process of building PSPP when you posted.

                              But gnumerics looks awesome and doesn't seem to have as many prerequisites.  The Monte Carlo Tools

                              alone are good for keeping you away from air and sunshine!  Smiley  Did you DL the precompiled Windows 32 binary?

                              I don't believe what time it is! Unhappy