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MADDOG'S Powerball Challenges (Discussion)

Topic closed. 82 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
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Posted: November 24, 2010, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

Please use this thread to DISCUSS the (Details) and (Summaries)

of the MadDog Powerball Challenge Threads.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stack47 Wrote:

"You might also see that the 3168 simulated tickets that someone "virtually" purchases is a convenient way to speed up the process."

Personally I think it's more useless information from someone with way too much time on their hands. But my opinion aside, where is the positive feedback from any of the Challenge players?

I haven't seen one Challenge player bragging about "losing" less pretend money than anybody else. Has it ever occurred to you by using your statistical method, players would have to match 4 wbs + bonus number every four drawings just to stay close to even?

"With a computer simulation, you can pretend to play a system for 10,000 years"

I'm assuming the idea of most system players is to match the actual drawing results. Should they throw out their systems just because their picks never match your simulated 10,000 years of drawings?

------------------------------------

Please let me know if you find errors in any of my calculations, and try adding up the "ROI" values.

--Jimmy4164


    United States
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    Posted: November 25, 2010, 2:05 am - IP Logged

    Please use this thread to DISCUSS the (Details) and (Summaries)

    of the MadDog Powerball Challenge Threads.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Stack47 Wrote:

    "You might also see that the 3168 simulated tickets that someone "virtually" purchases is a convenient way to speed up the process."

    Personally I think it's more useless information from someone with way too much time on their hands. But my opinion aside, where is the positive feedback from any of the Challenge players?

    I haven't seen one Challenge player bragging about "losing" less pretend money than anybody else. Has it ever occurred to you by using your statistical method, players would have to match 4 wbs + bonus number every four drawings just to stay close to even?

    "With a computer simulation, you can pretend to play a system for 10,000 years"

    I'm assuming the idea of most system players is to match the actual drawing results. Should they throw out their systems just because their picks never match your simulated 10,000 years of drawings?

    ------------------------------------

    Please let me know if you find errors in any of my calculations, and try adding up the "ROI" values.

    --Jimmy4164

    Stack47,

    You must have missed my link to this thread when you posted this question in the (Details) Thread:

    "Since you apparently missed it, I'll ask again. Have you asked any of the Challenge players if and how they play their predictions?"

    I didn't miss it; I ignored it.  That question has been asked, reasked, answered, reanswered, and hashed over many times, in many threads.  I have no need or desire to ask it again.  If you do, be my guest.

    To quote your earlier post:

    "I'm assuming the idea of most system players is to match the actual drawing results. Should they throw out their systems just because their picks never match your simulated 10,000 years of drawings?"

    You're forgetting that simulations can be of varying forms.  One such design might be what you allude to here.  However, if you are more comfortable applying bets to historical data, you could use your computer to calculate your bets based on your system, whatever it is, and do just that.  Of course, in that case, you won't have 10,000 years worth of data to work with!  You should remember that I backtested quite a few Pick-3 patterns in the Fooled by Randomness thread in Lottery Systems.

    As for throwing out systems, I wouldn't jump to that conclusion.  It depends on what the system means to you.  If you have fun building your set of bets, why stop?  Systems are not going to make you lose any more than QPs!  My wife has a system that's based on the old simple substitution of numbers for letters cipher.  She sometimes challenges me to figure out what words are represented by her Powerball sets.  I know she's upset with me when she plays  [ 01 05 08 12 15 +19 ]  Smiley

    --Jimmy4164


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      Posted: December 2, 2010, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

      The following is from MadDog's Powerball Challenges (Details)

      Posted:

      And it's been over a month without any feedback (positive or negative) about your statistics.

      I doubted anyone played the same pick-3 number every drawing for over 30 years in the PA evening drawing and doubt if someone decided to wager almost $3200 on one PB or MM game, they would limit their play to only 12 wbs and 4 bonus balls.

      Have you asked any of the Challenge players if and how they play their predictions?

      --------------------------------------------

      And Today, RJOh Says:  1:51 pm - IP Logged

      You're probably right, I would think anyone spending $3200 on a PB drawing would use all 39 PB numbers guaranteeing at least $245 of their money back.  Besides, no one has ever gotten all the winning WB and PB numbers in such a small group.

      It would be interesting to see what system anyone or a group that had $3200 to spend on a PB drawing would use.

      --------------------------------------------

      When are you guys ever going to learn to think in the abstract?

      This is not about any one individual buying 3168 Powerball tickets for one draw!

      Look at the summaries, especially the ROI totals.

      Think...

      --Jimmy4164

      P.S.  Please post discussion items in this thread.

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        Posted: December 2, 2010, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

        Someone in Arizona won the Powerball last night!  It wasn't me, unfortunately (although I did win $7, lol).  But still, that's awesome.  It's probably a friend of a friend of a friend of someone I know, using the six degrees of separation law.  Congratulations to whoever it is.


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          Posted: December 4, 2010, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

          Someone in Arizona won the Powerball last night!  It wasn't me, unfortunately (although I did win $7, lol).  But still, that's awesome.  It's probably a friend of a friend of a friend of someone I know, using the six degrees of separation law.  Congratulations to whoever it is.

          That six degrees of separation is an amazing phenomenon isn't it?


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            Posted: December 4, 2010, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

            Please use this thread to DISCUSS the (Details) and (Summaries)

            of the MadDog Powerball Challenge Threads.

            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            Team Stack47 / RJOh,

            Since you apparently feel I have too much free time to devote to the Powerball game, and believe my reporting of MadDog's  Challenge is a complete waste of time, the attention you give to it is somewhat puzzling.  There are many situations that might allow one the luxury of free time, many of which I'm sure you can surmise.  What is more challenging is to understand what would motivate people whose attitudes indicate a shortage of free time to ciriticize someone who is free, unless they themselves have an excess too.

            I look forward to any constructive criticism you wish to contribute to this effort.  One area that you might consider commenting on is what is being labeled ROI in the (Summaries.)  Other Forum readers may find it of value if you would explain, for example, why ROI is another name for Expected Value .

            Looking forward to your contributions,

            --Jimmy4164


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              Posted: December 11, 2010, 2:04 am - IP Logged

              MadDog's Powerball Challenge Players,

              As I slowly approach the accumulation of a year's worth of Challenge data, I thought I'd make some general comments on what's being revealed.

              A common refrain from those who don't believe these summaries of the Powerball Challenge are of any value is, "...if someone had $3,168 to play on one Powerball draw, they surely wouldn't buy all combinations of 12 of the 59 White Balls."  Another one is, "...most people don't have $3,168 to play every day."  The best one I read was a report of how many pay slips would be required and how long it would take to fill them out and have them processed by a lottery clerk.  These observations and others like them completely miss the point.  Those who go to the trouble to make them are most likely the same people who diligently use custom methods to select a small subset of the millions of possible White Ball sets, sometimes even selecting 6 or 7 of the 59 possible balls and "Wheeling" them to produce a number of lines that they can afford.  But when we allow a player to Wheel 12 numbers as a theoretical exercise to speed up the process, they cry foul.

              Dealing with these sorts of misconceptions is difficult and frustrating for a teacher because they are errors in logic and rooted in psychological bias.  Those who laugh at buying all combinations of 12 of 59 numbers will also vehemently deny having any belief in The Gambler's Fallacy.  However, their dismissal of the results being reported here is strong evidence that they ARE suffering from this psychological affliction!  For if they were not, they would clearly see that IF 1 ticket gives them 1 chance in 195,249,054 to win the jackpot, THEN 3,168 UNIQUE tickets gives them 3,168 chances in 195,249,054 to win that jackpot, REGARDLESS of the fact that hundreds of these tickets differ in only one number.  When someone believes they can "Prune" this set of tickets to a smaller number without reducing their probability of winning, they are implicitly accepting the argument that past results are causing certain lines to be less likely than others, which is a false assumption.  Alternatively, they might also suffer from the "Hot Hand" fallacy which tells them that numbers occuring more than expected recently are "HOT," and might persist.

              Someone asked what a true system player might choose to play if they actually had $3,168 to spend every day.  Would someone care to tell us how they would spend this amount, AND how their selections would result in a higher ROI (Return On Investment) than those attainable by Wheeling 12 White Balls and 4 Powerballs?  The summary below shows what happens when ~30 people buy ~5 million tickets over ~9 months, playing [for the most part] all combinations of 12 WBs and 4 PBs.

              I hope to post the Cumulative results of March 2010 through today by the end of this weekend.  Stay tuned.

              --Jimmy4164

              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Composite:  04/10/2010  Thru  12/04/2010

                             JP  5+0 4+1 4+0  3+1   3+0   2+1    1+1      PB  #Hits      $Won      $Equity   ROI*

              All Posters     0   0   0  288  324 19372  6508  42558   76809 145859  $643,019  -$5,091,258 0.112
               
                 Total Ticket Costs        $5,734,277
                 Total Winnings              $643,019
                 Overall Gain/Loss        -$5,091,258
               
                                           Expected                        Actual
                Category                #Wins             ROI*              #Wins            ROI*
               
                0 WB + PB               92893            0.049              76809            0.040
                1 WB + PB               46443            0.032              42558            0.030
                2 WB + PB                7285            0.009               6508            0.008
                3 WB                    15971            0.019              19372            0.024
                3 WB + PB                 420            0.007                324            0.006
                4 WB                      301            0.005                288            0.005
                4 WB + PB                   7.930        0.014                  0            0.000
                5 WB                        1.116        0.039                  0            0.000
               
              **JACKPOT                     0.029        0.325                  0            0.000


               * ROI is The Amount Won Per Dollar Spent On Tickets.
               
              ** The Expected Jackpot used is $63,476,560 per Winning Ticket.
                 This is an oversimplified shortcut.
                 An In Depth discussion of Powerball Payouts can be found here:

                 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball

                 See mention of LotteryPost.com in this article.

               


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                Posted: December 12, 2010, 1:38 am - IP Logged

                It just occured to me that MadDog's Powerball Challenge is a golden opportunity for system players to strut their stuff without giving up any of their secrets.  Any players who use a system that reduces the 59 White Ball and 39 Powerball sets to a manageable size are good candidates.  Of course, as has been pointed out repeatedly by some, in the real world the average working person can't afford 3,168 bets on a Powerball draw, so they would be forced to use other pruning techniques to select the more likely lines from this larger set.  But this should not keep them from proving themselves in MadDog's Challenge.  If their 20, 30, or 50 highly likely nuggets are hidden amongst the 3,168, their results would surely outperform the rest of us.  Correct?  As long as they don't give up the details of their 2nd level selection heuristics, we would be hard pressed to cut in on their winnings by betting with them.  So, I wonder what's holding them back?

                Of course, it's understandable that players who use digit counts and other such methods which result in betting sets that comprehend far more than 12 WBs and 4 PBs, would be severely cramped by the Challenge rules.  The only way they could show off would be in the Prediction Forums, but then they would be jeapardizing their winnings.  So, I guess they will just have to watch from the sidelines.  Who can blame them? 

                As for those who have nothing but confused, negative comments to make about my efforts here, perhaps when their reading skills improve to a level that they finally understand my requests to DISCUSS these issues in THIS thread, and reserve the (Details) and (Summary) threads for data display, who knows, they may impress us here with some insightful remarks or constructive criticism. 

                --Jimmy4164



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                  Posted: December 28, 2010, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

                  Powerball Fans,

                  I posted this last night in a News thread, but I think it fits better here.

                  Here's an excerpt from my response to Batiatus in:

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/news/225148/1894405

                   ------------------------------

                  Batiatus,

                  We're not too many "pages" away from each other on this.  Take a rough hewn example:

                    $100,000,000            Total Sales since last jackpot payoff

                     $17,000,000            Payouts for Powerball, 1WB + PB, 2WB + PB,,,,, 5WB

                     $50,000,000            Lottery's Advertized "Cut"

                     $33,000,000            Announced "Jackpot" Amount

                  Here is where we differ...

                  You accept the Lottery's calculation that allows them to get away with giving [about] $16,500,000 to some place like Peachtree in exchange for them guaranteeing the winner $33M over the next 20 years.  And with the same rationale offering a cash option winner a lump sum of $16.5M.  I don't accept this!  In both cases, Jackpot winners are only getting 1/2 of what they should receive.  If the Lottery's "cut" is going to be 66.5% of their gross sales, then they should be forced to advertize this fact, rather than the 50% they claim.

                  Another way to look at this is:  Since all sales are CASH, when they announce a "Jackpot" of $33M, how can they support the claim that a cash option winner is only entitled to $16.5M? 

                  --Jimmy4164

                  --------------------------

                  Waddya' think?

                  --Jimmy4164


                    United States
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                    Posted: December 28, 2010, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

                    Powerball Fans,

                    I posted this last night in a News thread, but I think it fits better here.

                    Here's an excerpt from my response to Batiatus in:

                      http://www.lotterypost.com/news/225148/1894405

                     ------------------------------

                    Batiatus,

                    We're not too many "pages" away from each other on this.  Take a rough hewn example:

                      $100,000,000            Total Sales since last jackpot payoff

                       $17,000,000            Payouts for Powerball, 1WB + PB, 2WB + PB,,,,, 5WB

                       $50,000,000            Lottery's Advertized "Cut"

                       $33,000,000            Announced "Jackpot" Amount

                    Here is where we differ...

                    You accept the Lottery's calculation that allows them to get away with giving [about] $16,500,000 to some place like Peachtree in exchange for them guaranteeing the winner $33M over the next 20 years.  And with the same rationale offering a cash option winner a lump sum of $16.5M.  I don't accept this!  In both cases, Jackpot winners are only getting 1/2 of what they should receive.  If the Lottery's "cut" is going to be 66.5% of their gross sales, then they should be forced to advertize this fact, rather than the 50% they claim.

                    Another way to look at this is:  Since all sales are CASH, when they announce a "Jackpot" of $33M, how can they support the claim that a cash option winner is only entitled to $16.5M? 

                    --Jimmy4164

                    --------------------------

                    Waddya' think?

                    --Jimmy4164

                    It turns out, the answer is at the Link I've been tacking onto my Powerbal (Summaries) postings every week!

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball

                    Scroll down to the section entitled "Winning Expectation."  It's all spelled out there.  The table even details examples of various cash and annuity amounts.  I was correct that about 1/3 of ticket sales is what the cash option should be, and wrong in assuming it is not, because  IT IS!  If I had payed more attention to this article, I would have noticed that the advertized "Jackpot" is 2X the cash option, and is what you end up with after 29 years.  So, unless you think you're a savvy enough investor to do better than doubling your cash payout in 29 years, or you're afraid the Lottery might go belly-up before you get all your money, it looks like the annuity option isn't such a bad deal after all.

                    --Jimmy4164


                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: December 30, 2010, 11:23 am - IP Logged

                      MadDog's Powerball Challenge Players,

                      As I slowly approach the accumulation of a year's worth of Challenge data, I thought I'd make some general comments on what's being revealed.

                      A common refrain from those who don't believe these summaries of the Powerball Challenge are of any value is, "...if someone had $3,168 to play on one Powerball draw, they surely wouldn't buy all combinations of 12 of the 59 White Balls."  Another one is, "...most people don't have $3,168 to play every day."  The best one I read was a report of how many pay slips would be required and how long it would take to fill them out and have them processed by a lottery clerk.  These observations and others like them completely miss the point.  Those who go to the trouble to make them are most likely the same people who diligently use custom methods to select a small subset of the millions of possible White Ball sets, sometimes even selecting 6 or 7 of the 59 possible balls and "Wheeling" them to produce a number of lines that they can afford.  But when we allow a player to Wheel 12 numbers as a theoretical exercise to speed up the process, they cry foul.

                      Dealing with these sorts of misconceptions is difficult and frustrating for a teacher because they are errors in logic and rooted in psychological bias.  Those who laugh at buying all combinations of 12 of 59 numbers will also vehemently deny having any belief in The Gambler's Fallacy.  However, their dismissal of the results being reported here is strong evidence that they ARE suffering from this psychological affliction!  For if they were not, they would clearly see that IF 1 ticket gives them 1 chance in 195,249,054 to win the jackpot, THEN 3,168 UNIQUE tickets gives them 3,168 chances in 195,249,054 to win that jackpot, REGARDLESS of the fact that hundreds of these tickets differ in only one number.  When someone believes they can "Prune" this set of tickets to a smaller number without reducing their probability of winning, they are implicitly accepting the argument that past results are causing certain lines to be less likely than others, which is a false assumption.  Alternatively, they might also suffer from the "Hot Hand" fallacy which tells them that numbers occuring more than expected recently are "HOT," and might persist.

                      Someone asked what a true system player might choose to play if they actually had $3,168 to spend every day.  Would someone care to tell us how they would spend this amount, AND how their selections would result in a higher ROI (Return On Investment) than those attainable by Wheeling 12 White Balls and 4 Powerballs?  The summary below shows what happens when ~30 people buy ~5 million tickets over ~9 months, playing [for the most part] all combinations of 12 WBs and 4 PBs.

                      I hope to post the Cumulative results of March 2010 through today by the end of this weekend.  Stay tuned.

                      --Jimmy4164

                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Composite:  04/10/2010  Thru  12/04/2010

                                     JP  5+0 4+1 4+0  3+1   3+0   2+1    1+1      PB  #Hits      $Won      $Equity   ROI*

                      All Posters     0   0   0  288  324 19372  6508  42558   76809 145859  $643,019  -$5,091,258 0.112
                       
                         Total Ticket Costs        $5,734,277
                         Total Winnings              $643,019
                         Overall Gain/Loss        -$5,091,258
                       
                                                   Expected                        Actual
                        Category                #Wins             ROI*              #Wins            ROI*
                       
                        0 WB + PB               92893            0.049              76809            0.040
                        1 WB + PB               46443            0.032              42558            0.030
                        2 WB + PB                7285            0.009               6508            0.008
                        3 WB                    15971            0.019              19372            0.024
                        3 WB + PB                 420            0.007                324            0.006
                        4 WB                      301            0.005                288            0.005
                        4 WB + PB                   7.930        0.014                  0            0.000
                        5 WB                        1.116        0.039                  0            0.000
                       
                      **JACKPOT                     0.029        0.325                  0            0.000


                       * ROI is The Amount Won Per Dollar Spent On Tickets.
                       
                      ** The Expected Jackpot used is $63,476,560 per Winning Ticket.
                         This is an oversimplified shortcut.
                         An In Depth discussion of Powerball Payouts can be found here:

                         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball

                         See mention of LotteryPost.com in this article.

                       

                      You had better confirm the information from wikipedia with other sources, yesterday I posted that link in the thread: http://www.lotterypost.com/news/225314
                      and was informed by Todd and others "Whoever updates Wikipedia gets it right only sometimes.  They post a lot of stuff with absolutely no proof or attribution, ............."  In fact a Floridian pointed out the information about MegaMillions starting on Jan. 5, 2011 in Florida was incorrect.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                        Chief Bottle Washer
                        New Jersey
                        United States
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                        Posted: December 30, 2010, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                        You had better confirm the information from wikipedia with other sources, yesterday I posted that link in the thread: http://www.lotterypost.com/news/225314
                        and was informed by Todd and others "Whoever updates Wikipedia gets it right only sometimes.  They post a lot of stuff with absolutely no proof or attribution, ............."  In fact a Floridian pointed out the information about MegaMillions starting on Jan. 5, 2011 in Florida was incorrect.

                        That's exactly right — especially for the info that jimmy4164 is referring to.

                        The Powerball annuity jackpot is most certainly NOT a "2x" calculation.  The cash value is actually the STARTING POINT for the jackpot, because the annuity value is calculated FROM the estimated cash value, not the other way around.

                        Take the jackpot on Nov. 6, for example.  The cash value was $67 million, and the annuity was $123 million.  So the annuity was 1.8x the cash value, which may not sound like a big difference, but in real dollars that's a difference of $11 million.

                        Maybe not such a wise move to read the Wikipedia lottery info as if it is unassailable fact.

                         

                        Check the State Lottery Report Card
                        What grade did your lottery earn?

                         

                        Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                        Help eliminate computerized drawings!


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                          Posted: December 30, 2010, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

                          That's exactly right — especially for the info that jimmy4164 is referring to.

                          The Powerball annuity jackpot is most certainly NOT a "2x" calculation.  The cash value is actually the STARTING POINT for the jackpot, because the annuity value is calculated FROM the estimated cash value, not the other way around.

                          Take the jackpot on Nov. 6, for example.  The cash value was $67 million, and the annuity was $123 million.  So the annuity was 1.8x the cash value, which may not sound like a big difference, but in real dollars that's a difference of $11 million.

                          Maybe not such a wise move to read the Wikipedia lottery info as if it is unassailable fact.

                          Todd,

                          I think the Wikipedia article agrees [in spirit] with what you present here.  I oversimplified to expedite my post.  What's clear to me is that the article is much more in line with your assesment than my original (erroneous) claim that the cash payout was 1/2 of what it should be.

                          Could someone point to the overall Powerball Jackpot stats for 2010?  The only way to verify that the Expected Value of the Jackpot component of one Powerball ticket is 32.5¢ is to know the total number of tickets sold and the total dollars paid out.  The number of winning tickets would be nice to know too.  I know I could piece this together from MadDog's Powerball threads, but I'd rather not take the time if it's already available.

                          --Jimmy4164

                            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                            Chief Bottle Washer
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                            Posted: December 30, 2010, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

                            Todd,

                            I think the Wikipedia article agrees [in spirit] with what you present here.  I oversimplified to expedite my post.  What's clear to me is that the article is much more in line with your assesment than my original (erroneous) claim that the cash payout was 1/2 of what it should be.

                            Could someone point to the overall Powerball Jackpot stats for 2010?  The only way to verify that the Expected Value of the Jackpot component of one Powerball ticket is 32.5¢ is to know the total number of tickets sold and the total dollars paid out.  The number of winning tickets would be nice to know too.  I know I could piece this together from MadDog's Powerball threads, but I'd rather not take the time if it's already available.

                            --Jimmy4164

                            I don't think so.  It actually shows a "2x" column with calculated numbers.  I don't think that line of reasoning works these days.  It is very bad form for something that is supposed to be "definitive".

                            To me, the way the whole thing is written is as if the person "thinks" they are one of the most knowledgeable people out there.

                             

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                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
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                              Posted: December 30, 2010, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

                              I don't think so.  It actually shows a "2x" column with calculated numbers.  I don't think that line of reasoning works these days.  It is very bad form for something that is supposed to be "definitive".

                              To me, the way the whole thing is written is as if the person "thinks" they are one of the most knowledgeable people out there.

                              I've seen some dubious information at Wikipedia too, but it usually gets rectified soon enough.  If the complex Present Value of an Annuity calculations were detailed, I'm afraid most people would fall asleep reading it!  At today's low interest rates, the 2X number puts you pretty much in the ball park, and works for me.

                              Any pointers to the stats?