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MADDOG'S Powerball Challenges (Discussion)

Topic closed. 82 replies. Last post 6 years ago by jimmy4164.

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Posted: January 1, 2011, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

I've observed a lot of negative sentiment here for Wikipedia, especially in regard to the articles I've linked to like the ones on the Gambler's Fallacy and Powerball.  It should be noted that Wikipedia is a collaborative effort.  For example, it is quite likely that the Powerball article has multiple contributors, and as this screen shot from the top of its page this morning indicates, it is open for editing.  This is the beauty of Wikipedia; it's probably one of the best forums for peer review available.  In this case, anyone who feels there is disinformation in the Powerball article is free to suggest corrections, deletions, or additions.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: January 1, 2011, 3:40 pm - IP Logged

    What you observed weren't negative sentiments for Wikipedia but doubts about some of the information in the Wikipedia article.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       


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      Posted: January 2, 2011, 12:44 am - IP Logged

      RJOh,

      You're correct regarding Todd's comments on the Powerball article, but if you look back at the attacks I had to deal with when citing Wikipedia to explain The Gambler's Fallacy, I think you'll find a different story.   Although I don't fully agree with Todd's critique of the PB article, he cited a specific passage and what he didn't like about it.  Those who have a strong psychological need to believe in the fallacy blindly mounted emotional attacks on Wikipedia itself without attempting to specify their disagreement.  At this point, I don't really think there is much disagreement among any of us in this thread over the PB Wiki.  Ironically, I'm the one who started the controversy by erroneously concluding the Jackpots were smaller than advertized.  Regardless,  the fact still remains as illustrated above; anyone can get involved in the discussion and editing process at Wikipedia.

      --Jimmy4164

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
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        Posted: January 2, 2011, 1:05 am - IP Logged

        I've observed a lot of negative sentiment here for Wikipedia, especially in regard to the articles I've linked to like the ones on the Gambler's Fallacy and Powerball.  It should be noted that Wikipedia is a collaborative effort.  For example, it is quite likely that the Powerball article has multiple contributors, and as this screen shot from the top of its page this morning indicates, it is open for editing.  This is the beauty of Wikipedia; it's probably one of the best forums for peer review available.  In this case, anyone who feels there is disinformation in the Powerball article is free to suggest corrections, deletions, or additions.

        It is called a collaborative effort, but in reality there is one person who accepts or rejects everything.  So it's not really collaborative.

        A while back, I made an effort myself to make some corrections and suggestions, and the guy was like a Nazi eliminating everything I contributed.  It's not like there was anything commericial about it, just information with good backup sources.

        If memory serves, I had tried contributing a number of times -- 4, 5, 6 times, something like that.  I had very little success getting past the "lottery Nazi" who apparently has ultimate control of everything there.

        So, anyone can post changes, but they will be immediately rolled back most of the time -- that's my experience.

        On the other hand, all the various things that the Nazi believes, but happen to be misleading or untrue, stay there for all time.

        Wikipedia used to be collaborative, maybe 6-7 years ago.  Now it is just a collection of fiefdoms, essentially controlled by ego-maniacal bloggers.

         

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          Posted: January 2, 2011, 1:59 am - IP Logged

          Thanks for the feedback.  I've never attempted to edit or submit an article there so I wasn't aware of this.  It's too bad.  I wouldn't have been surprised learning this about religious or political issues, but one would hope that articles based on logic and math would be outside such biased control.  Oh well, I'll have to rely on other sources for support citations and perhaps use Wikipedia as backup when it agrees.

          That said, I still think they've done a pretty good job with The Gambler's Fallacy!  Smiley

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: January 2, 2011, 11:20 am - IP Logged

            When it comes to religions, politics and playing lotteries, anyone writing or talking about them are for the most part expressing an opinion and use facts and data that support their opinion and may discard anything that doesn't.  That's one of the reason I don't take such writings or talk as gospel.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


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              Posted: January 4, 2011, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

              When it comes to religions, politics and playing lotteries, anyone writing or talking about them are for the most part expressing an opinion and use facts and data that support their opinion and may discard anything that doesn't.  That's one of the reason I don't take such writings or talk as gospel.

              It's interesting to me that you categorize lotteries with religion and politics.  I can't see any reason to do that other than the fact that some people have a near religious belief in their lottery "systems."  Any assertion about a lottery can be shown to be true or false with the application of logic and mathematics.  That's only rarely possible with religion or politics.

              Since Wikipedia is not accepted here, I signed up for a subscription to the online version of The Encyclopedia Britannica.  Thus far, I have found no discrepancies between Britannica and Wikipedia as far as the application of probability theory to lotteries goes, but since Britannica is not free and its citation rules are not as liberal as Wikipedia, it's difficult to demonstrate this fact.  So, those with fallacious beliefs which are challenged by Wikipedia can feel secure, for now.  Have you ever considered a subscription to Britannica?

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: January 5, 2011, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

                Any assertion about a lottery can be shown to be true or false with the application of logic and mathematics.  That's only rarely possible with religion or politics.

                Sounds like an opinion to me, beside what one players call logic may be considered nonsense to another as is displayed many LP threads.

                About religion and politics, you were the one that suggested that such issues could be bias and I'm simply saying it's true of lottery issues too.

                I think both Wikipedia and Britannica Encyclopedia are good sources of information but their information isn't much help to a lottery player.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
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                  Posted: January 5, 2011, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                  Any assertion about a lottery can be shown to be true or false with the application of logic and mathematics.  That's only rarely possible with religion or politics.

                  Sounds like an opinion to me, beside what one players call logic may be considered nonsense to another as is displayed many LP threads.

                  About religion and politics, you were the one that suggested that such issues could be bias and I'm simply saying it's true of lottery issues too.

                  I think both Wikipedia and Britannica Encyclopedia are good sources of information but their information isn't much help to a lottery player.

                  Do you really need to see a years worth of Challenge statistics to know that had players individually or collectively spent $3168 per drawing playing only 12 wps with only 4 bonus numbers they would have lost lots of money?

                  Some might play their Challenge numbers using 4, 8, 12 or even 36 combos but that's not even in the same ballpark as $3168.

                  "Sounds like an opinion to me"

                  And my opinion is these statistics are worthless infomation.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                    Posted: January 5, 2011, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                    Do you really need to see a years worth of Challenge statistics to know that had players individually or collectively spent $3168 per drawing playing only 12 wps with only 4 bonus numbers they would have lost lots of money?

                    Some might play their Challenge numbers using 4, 8, 12 or even 36 combos but that's not even in the same ballpark as $3168.

                    "Sounds like an opinion to me"

                    And my opinion is these statistics are worthless infomation.

                    I Agree!  You must be confusing my responses to those of jimmy4164.  He's the one that has accumulated the data from Maddog PB challenge for year 2010 and probably will explain its importance to himself later. 

                    As I've said before I usually only play 10 to 20 lines and use numbers in the first four lines for the Maddog PowerBall challenge and usually post the first 10 lines on the prediction board.  Wheeling is something I don't do since a reasonable amount of numbers can't be wheeled for a cost with in my budget.  Even if wheeling 12 WB and 4 PB had shown a jackpot win I wouldn't be interested.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

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                      Posted: January 6, 2011, 12:34 am - IP Logged

                      I Agree!  You must be confusing my responses to those of jimmy4164.  He's the one that has accumulated the data from Maddog PB challenge for year 2010 and probably will explain its importance to himself later. 

                      As I've said before I usually only play 10 to 20 lines and use numbers in the first four lines for the Maddog PowerBall challenge and usually post the first 10 lines on the prediction board.  Wheeling is something I don't do since a reasonable amount of numbers can't be wheeled for a cost with in my budget.  Even if wheeling 12 WB and 4 PB had shown a jackpot win I wouldn't be interested.

                      It was meant for you because it looks like you played in the Challenges since they started and from your last remark, it looks like you could care less how you would do spending an imaginary $3168 four times a week. Many times when the jackpot gets high, I used Challenge player's predictions (yours included) playing a 3 if 4 of 12 number wheel because I don't like playing QPs; cashed a few times too.

                      "He's (Jimmy4161) the one that has accumulated the data from Maddog PB challenge for year 2010 and probably will explain its importance to himself later."

                      I suppose for a big yawn we can read all about it on Wikipedia!


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                        Posted: January 7, 2011, 2:05 am - IP Logged

                        It was meant for you because it looks like you played in the Challenges since they started and from your last remark, it looks like you could care less how you would do spending an imaginary $3168 four times a week. Many times when the jackpot gets high, I used Challenge player's predictions (yours included) playing a 3 if 4 of 12 number wheel because I don't like playing QPs; cashed a few times too.

                        "He's (Jimmy4161) the one that has accumulated the data from Maddog PB challenge for year 2010 and probably will explain its importance to himself later."

                        I suppose for a big yawn we can read all about it on Wikipedia!

                        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/225251/1907506

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: January 7, 2011, 6:15 pm - IP Logged

                          It was meant for you because it looks like you played in the Challenges since they started and from your last remark, it looks like you could care less how you would do spending an imaginary $3168 four times a week. Many times when the jackpot gets high, I used Challenge player's predictions (yours included) playing a 3 if 4 of 12 number wheel because I don't like playing QPs; cashed a few times too.

                          "He's (Jimmy4161) the one that has accumulated the data from Maddog PB challenge for year 2010 and probably will explain its importance to himself later."

                          I suppose for a big yawn we can read all about it on Wikipedia!

                          I used Challenge player's predictions (yours included)

                          Hope you did better than me playing my numbers.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       


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                            Posted: January 7, 2011, 7:58 pm - IP Logged

                            Isn't it amazing how those imaginary 3,168 bets, the ones that I'm told by "informed"  players should surely be avoided, somehow manage to result in an overall return that so closely approximates what mathematicians predict? Smiley

                            --Jimmy4164


                            P.S.  Some related and interesting reading:

                            http://www.staff.city.ac.uk/~sj361/p1369.pdf

                            http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/lottery-nonsense-8694

                             

                             

                             

                                    MadDog's Powerball Challenge
                                             2010/12/29

                                    01/02/2010  Thru  12/29/2010

                                        All Draws for 2010

                                         137 Participants

                                Total Ticket Costs         $8,271,258
                                Total Winnings             $1,772,590  

                                Overall Gain/Loss         -$6,498,668
                             
                                             Expected      Actual
                                     Category       #Wins        ROI*     #Wins     ROI*
                             
                                     0 WB + PB     133991       0.049    124791    0.045
                                     1 WB + PB      66990       0.032     64153    0.031
                                     2 WB + PB      10508       0.009      9275    0.008
                                     3 WB           23037       0.019     27240    0.023
                                     3 WB + PB        606       0.007       432    0.005
                                     4 WB             435       0.005       428    0.005
                                     4 WB + PB         11.438   0.014         0    0.000
                                     5 WB               1.610   0.039         4    0.097
                                                                -----              -----
                                     Total (Excl Jackpot)       0.174              0.214
                             
                                     JACKPOT            0.042   0.325         0    0.000
                             
                                   * ROI is The Amount Won Per Dollar Spent on Tickets.


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                              Posted: January 8, 2011, 3:46 am - IP Logged

                              Do you really need to see a years worth of Challenge statistics to know that had players individually or collectively spent $3168 per drawing playing only 12 wps with only 4 bonus numbers they would have lost lots of money?

                              Some might play their Challenge numbers using 4, 8, 12 or even 36 combos but that's not even in the same ballpark as $3168.

                              "Sounds like an opinion to me"

                              And my opinion is these statistics are worthless infomation.

                              Stack47,

                              You said,  "Do you really need to see a years worth of Challenge statistics to know that had players individually or collectively spent $3168 per drawing playing only 12 wps with only 4 bonus numbers they would have lost lots of money?"  This rhetorical question implies that you believe that had players been able to use their $3168 to buy 3168 Powerball tickets twice a week without the constraints of MadDog's Powerball Challenge, they would have lost less money, or maybe even come out ahead over the year's play.  Inasmuch as the 137 players pretty much won/lost what is to be expected theoretically by chance, I'm sure I am not the only one who would be fascinated to read just how YOU would spend $3168 on one Powerball draw.  Of course, I don't expect you to give up any trade secrets; just impress us by estimating how much better you would do.

                              Let me do some of the mundane calculating for you.  3168 tickets/draw times 52 weeks times 2 draws/week results in an "investment" of $329,472 over a year.  Assuming you don't hit the Jackpot (A fairly reasonable assumption, don't you think?), the table below tells ME that your expected winnings for the year would be 0.174 times $329,472 or $57,328.  I would say that your expected losses of (329472-57328) $272,144 should not necessarily be considered losses, but the price you would have to pay for 329,472 chances to win the Jackpot.  Come on, at least give us a ballpark hint as to how much better you would do with all that money to bet.

                              --Jimmy4164

                              P.S.  Some related and interesting reading:

                              http://www.staff.city.ac.uk/~sj361/p1369.pdf

                              http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/lottery-nonsense-8694

                               

                                      MadDog's Powerball Challenge
                                               2010/12/29

                                      01/02/2010  Thru  12/29/2010

                                          All Draws for 2010

                                           137 Participants

                                  Total Ticket Costs         $8,271,258
                                  Total Winnings             $1,772,590  

                                  Overall Gain/Loss         -$6,498,668
                               
                                               Expected      Actual
                                       Category       #Wins        ROI*     #Wins     ROI*
                               
                                       0 WB + PB     133991       0.049    124791    0.045
                                       1 WB + PB      66990       0.032     64153    0.031
                                       2 WB + PB      10508       0.009      9275    0.008
                                       3 WB           23037       0.019     27240    0.023
                                       3 WB + PB        606       0.007       432    0.005
                                       4 WB             435       0.005       428    0.005
                                       4 WB + PB         11.438   0.014         0    0.000
                                       5 WB               1.610   0.039         4    0.097
                                                                  -----              -----
                                       Total (Excl Jackpot)       0.174              0.214
                               
                                       JACKPOT            0.042   0.325         0    0.000
                               
                                     * ROI is The Amount Won Per Dollar Spent on Tickets.