|Posted: January 26, 2011, 1:16 am - IP Logged|
For example - if you buy/develop a system for a particular game with published overall odds of: 1:8.1
And you bet say - $100 on the system.
How much would you expect to get back,
and how much over odds would you have to be - before anyone would care?
(P.S. would have jumped on this back in college -but stats class was a long time ago..)
What you would get back is called the Expected Value of the wager.
Expected Value is the Probability of Winning multiplied by the Payoff IF you Win.
We need more information to answer your question in this case. Specifically, what the publisher means by 1:8.1. In most Pick-3 games, for example, the published odds are 1:1000 for a straight bet, and most states pay $500 for a winning $1 straight ticket. So, in these games, the Expected Value (EV) of a $1 straight ticket purchase is:
EV = ( 1 / 1000 ) * $500
EV = 50¢
If you bought 100 tickets with your $100, what you would expect to get back would be:
EV = ( 100 / 1000 ) * 500
EV = $50.00
Of course, if you had a winner on your first go around you would be ahead $400 right off the bat! The Expected Values calculated above are those expected over a long period of time.
Please post more detail here on your 1:8.1 game.