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Pick 4 Probability Question

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Boney526.

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Raleigh
United States
Member #57291
December 31, 2007
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Posted: January 26, 2011, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

Before arriving at my question, some background information:

  My strategy in Pick 3 and Pick 4 is to identify numbers that are statistically overdue to be drawn.  This method has yielded quite a bit of $'s over time.  In the Pick 4 game, we have won just over $21K since mid-May.  BUT......I am currently in a bit of a drought and have not won in over three weeks.

  I am playing a set of 24 numbers in the North Carolina Lottery Pick 4 game.  This is a relatively "new" game in NC..........we are just approaching the 650th drawing since it's inception.  The 24 numbers have never been drawn in any combination and I typically play them as "box" (aka: 50/50 in NC). 

  These numbers are a mix of 4-ways, 6-ways, 12-ways and 24-ways. In aggregate, there are 338 possible combinations.  So:  10,000/338 = 29.59.  In other words, using straight probability calculation, one of these combinations should be drawn about once out of every 30 drawings.  (Yes......I realize there are widely divergent views on this method - but this is a straight probability calculation to use as a reference point)

   From the figures above, I can divide the number of drawings since inception by the frequency to determine how far "out of phase" my numbers are.  650/29.59 = 21.96   In other words, the numbers I am playing are nearly 22 times "out of phase" with the frequency in which they statistically should have been drawn.

   Now, to the question:  In Pick 4; is 22 times out of phase unusually high?  Unusually low?  In Pick 3, using the same methodology as outlined above; it was rare to exceed 4 times out phase before my numbers started "hitting".   Pick 4, of course; has many, many more numbers to deal with.  So, my numbers may not be as likely to hit soon as I'd like to believe.  There are bound to be other posters here that use a similar system.  Any thoughts on this?

Did you know that 4 out of 3 people don't understand ratios?


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
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    Posted: January 27, 2011, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

    Before arriving at my question, some background information:

      My strategy in Pick 3 and Pick 4 is to identify numbers that are statistically overdue to be drawn.  This method has yielded quite a bit of $'s over time.  In the Pick 4 game, we have won just over $21K since mid-May.  BUT......I am currently in a bit of a drought and have not won in over three weeks.

      I am playing a set of 24 numbers in the North Carolina Lottery Pick 4 game.  This is a relatively "new" game in NC..........we are just approaching the 650th drawing since it's inception.  The 24 numbers have never been drawn in any combination and I typically play them as "box" (aka: 50/50 in NC). 

      These numbers are a mix of 4-ways, 6-ways, 12-ways and 24-ways. In aggregate, there are 338 possible combinations.  So:  10,000/338 = 29.59.  In other words, using straight probability calculation, one of these combinations should be drawn about once out of every 30 drawings.  (Yes......I realize there are widely divergent views on this method - but this is a straight probability calculation to use as a reference point)

       From the figures above, I can divide the number of drawings since inception by the frequency to determine how far "out of phase" my numbers are.  650/29.59 = 21.96   In other words, the numbers I am playing are nearly 22 times "out of phase" with the frequency in which they statistically should have been drawn.

       Now, to the question:  In Pick 4; is 22 times out of phase unusually high?  Unusually low?  In Pick 3, using the same methodology as outlined above; it was rare to exceed 4 times out phase before my numbers started "hitting".   Pick 4, of course; has many, many more numbers to deal with.  So, my numbers may not be as likely to hit soon as I'd like to believe.  There are bound to be other posters here that use a similar system.  Any thoughts on this?

    "My strategy in Pick 3 and Pick 4 is to identify numbers that are statistically overdue to be drawn.  This method has yielded quite a bit of $'s over time.  In the Pick 4 game, we have won just over $21K since mid-May.  BUT......I am currently in a bit of a drought and have not won in over three weeks."

    I looked at this game at the NC website and it looks to me like its Expected Value is ½.  Therefore, I suspect you've had at least one lucky and sizeable hit since May.  If I were you, I'd "take the money and run!"  If you don't, it's very likely you'll end up giving all your winnings (plus some) back to NC.  At least hold back a good percentage of it and bet with the rest.

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      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7344 Posts
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      Posted: January 28, 2011, 11:35 am - IP Logged

      Before arriving at my question, some background information:

        My strategy in Pick 3 and Pick 4 is to identify numbers that are statistically overdue to be drawn.  This method has yielded quite a bit of $'s over time.  In the Pick 4 game, we have won just over $21K since mid-May.  BUT......I am currently in a bit of a drought and have not won in over three weeks.

        I am playing a set of 24 numbers in the North Carolina Lottery Pick 4 game.  This is a relatively "new" game in NC..........we are just approaching the 650th drawing since it's inception.  The 24 numbers have never been drawn in any combination and I typically play them as "box" (aka: 50/50 in NC). 

        These numbers are a mix of 4-ways, 6-ways, 12-ways and 24-ways. In aggregate, there are 338 possible combinations.  So:  10,000/338 = 29.59.  In other words, using straight probability calculation, one of these combinations should be drawn about once out of every 30 drawings.  (Yes......I realize there are widely divergent views on this method - but this is a straight probability calculation to use as a reference point)

         From the figures above, I can divide the number of drawings since inception by the frequency to determine how far "out of phase" my numbers are.  650/29.59 = 21.96   In other words, the numbers I am playing are nearly 22 times "out of phase" with the frequency in which they statistically should have been drawn.

         Now, to the question:  In Pick 4; is 22 times out of phase unusually high?  Unusually low?  In Pick 3, using the same methodology as outlined above; it was rare to exceed 4 times out phase before my numbers started "hitting".   Pick 4, of course; has many, many more numbers to deal with.  So, my numbers may not be as likely to hit soon as I'd like to believe.  There are bound to be other posters here that use a similar system.  Any thoughts on this?

      "In aggregate, there are 338 possible combinations.  So:  10,000/338 = 29.59.  In other words, using straight probability calculation, one of these combinations should be drawn about once out of every 30 drawings."

      Looking at it another way, there are 30 groups each with 338 straight combinations. With groups that large I doubt you'll see each group averaging one hit every 30 drawings even after 20,000 drawings. Some groups might go months without a hit. If you place all the drawn numbers into two groups, there are 28 groups each with 338 numbers that have never been drawn. A number from those groups have a 93.6% chance of being drawn and your group has a 1 in 28 chance of being the one group with the winning number.

      Out of the 650 drawings, 18 straight combos have repeated and if that average continues, you'll have to wait a long time to reduce the number of groups without a hit. However if you wait until there are only two groups of 338 numbers each with no hits, you still only have a 3.38% chance of one of the numbers from your group being drawn in any given drawing.

      "In Pick 3, using the same methodology as outlined above; it was rare to exceed 4 times out phase before my numbers started "hitting"

      I divided all the pick-3 numbers into 22 groups of 10 combos using box spreads and it's possible an interesting "due combo" system could used with them. The problem I see with your "due combo" system is that the numbers are "due" tonight and will remain "due" until one of the numbers hit and that could take 6000 drawings. For your sake I hope it's before the end of January.

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #99032
        October 18, 2010
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        Posted: February 19, 2011, 12:49 am - IP Logged

        It's usually unwise to go with overdue comboes - although sometimes they do come out, it's just a matter of coincidence.

         

        As for a "wise" method of betting, I'm not sure there is one, playing against a 50-60% of odds payout.