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Follower math?

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 5 years ago by JosephusMinimus.

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KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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Posted: May 20, 2011, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

Good day all,

I've recently become aware of how "follower" numbers are appearing in draws. I've read several posts in the forums about followers. Does anyone know of any math or algoriths that can look at the previous draw (or a selected range) and make an educated guess about the next "follower" number in a draw?

I've put together a table that Ranks the number's frequencies and a Skip table that counts the number of Skips between number appearences.

The percentage numbers are quite different.

For instance: In the Frequency tables, the highest percentage shows up more often. But, in the Skips table, the lowest percentage number appears to show up more often. (I'm describing a Pick 3 game here.)

I'm attempting to figure out how to combine the 2 percentages together to provide a cleaner percentage or to use the 2 percentages in some sort of math formula to assist in identifying the next number drawn.

Any ideas or suggestions would be welcomed. And, thanks for reading and thinking.

KnuckleHead

          The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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    Posted: May 21, 2011, 5:37 am - IP Logged

    Good day all,

    I've recently become aware of how "follower" numbers are appearing in draws. I've read several posts in the forums about followers. Does anyone know of any math or algoriths that can look at the previous draw (or a selected range) and make an educated guess about the next "follower" number in a draw?

    I've put together a table that Ranks the number's frequencies and a Skip table that counts the number of Skips between number appearences.

    The percentage numbers are quite different.

    For instance: In the Frequency tables, the highest percentage shows up more often. But, in the Skips table, the lowest percentage number appears to show up more often. (I'm describing a Pick 3 game here.)

    I'm attempting to figure out how to combine the 2 percentages together to provide a cleaner percentage or to use the 2 percentages in some sort of math formula to assist in identifying the next number drawn.

    Any ideas or suggestions would be welcomed. And, thanks for reading and thinking.

    KnuckleHead

    KH

    Not heard from you in awhile, how is everything going.  I use to use followers by first taking the numbers

    from the current draw then tracking what hit in the next draw after one of them was drawn using the entire

    database.  The wife still uses them and takes the totals and sorts them into 3 groups.  Then she selects 2

    numbers from the top hitters, 2 from the middle and 1 from the bottom.  I don't know if this will work for p-3

    but you might track it for a while and see.  We also use to track pairs from the current draw the same way

    but as far a formula that could help selecting them, we just used total hits + average hits + games out + skips

    to make as you say "an educated guess."

    RL

      KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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      Posted: May 21, 2011, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

      Evening RL,

      Check your messages.

                The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

        Avatar

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        Posted: May 24, 2011, 9:21 am - IP Logged

        Good day all,

        I've recently become aware of how "follower" numbers are appearing in draws. I've read several posts in the forums about followers. Does anyone know of any math or algoriths that can look at the previous draw (or a selected range) and make an educated guess about the next "follower" number in a draw?

        I've put together a table that Ranks the number's frequencies and a Skip table that counts the number of Skips between number appearences.

        The percentage numbers are quite different.

        For instance: In the Frequency tables, the highest percentage shows up more often. But, in the Skips table, the lowest percentage number appears to show up more often. (I'm describing a Pick 3 game here.)

        I'm attempting to figure out how to combine the 2 percentages together to provide a cleaner percentage or to use the 2 percentages in some sort of math formula to assist in identifying the next number drawn.

        Any ideas or suggestions would be welcomed. And, thanks for reading and thinking.

        KnuckleHead

        Hi again KH:

        I believe there are some ways of doing it using spreadsheets but they involve a person having to abandon a lot of what he believes he already knows and devoting considerable effort to areas unrelated to statistics, conventional wisdom, and off-the-shelf truisms.  That's not a palatable enough concept within the LP community to allow it to be discussed in any detail on a public forum.

        A few people I communicate with off-list are pursuing one facet of it using internal math with enough success to keep them working on it, trying to understand it well enough to allow it to be refined.  You might give some thought to looking in that direction if you're prone to experimention.

          KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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          Posted: May 25, 2011, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

          Hi again KH:

          I believe there are some ways of doing it using spreadsheets but they involve a person having to abandon a lot of what he believes he already knows and devoting considerable effort to areas unrelated to statistics, conventional wisdom, and off-the-shelf truisms.  That's not a palatable enough concept within the LP community to allow it to be discussed in any detail on a public forum.

          A few people I communicate with off-list are pursuing one facet of it using internal math with enough success to keep them working on it, trying to understand it well enough to allow it to be refined.  You might give some thought to looking in that direction if you're prone to experimention.

          Hello JosephusMinimus,

          If you've read any of my posts concerning lottery draws, you would have understood that I don't have the education behind me that would have provided me with preconceived ideas about statistics, probabilities, etc.

          I don't understand those conventions and how they work. That's why most of what I ask seems off the wall to most people.

          I'm developing my ideas as I go along.

          I'd be very interested to hear how others are using "Followers" to figure things out. I'd also be interested in how they gather the info about the "Followers". I've gotten my own ideas about that also. I'd also be very interested in what results they're getting.

          Thank you for replying.

          KH

                    The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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            Posted: May 25, 2011, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

            KH,

            Explain this and please give examples.

            "The percentage numbers are quite different.

            For instance: In the Frequency tables, the highest percentage shows up more often. But, in the Skips table, the lowest percentage number appears to show up more often. (I'm describing a Pick 3 game here.)"

             

            When you say followers, are you referring to a

            (A) digit following a digit by position or are you referring to a

            (B) digit in position 2 following a digit in position one  or

            (C) all the positions following each other?

             example

            1-1; 1-2;1-3

             2-1;2-2;2-3

            3-1;3-2;3-3

              KnuckleHead's avatar - box

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              Posted: May 26, 2011, 12:05 am - IP Logged

              Hello CARBOB,

              I may have my terminology incorrect, again, but I refer to "followers" as the number in the next draw.

              An example would be:

              3 4 5   (Currently drawn numbers.)

              6 7 8   (Previously drawn numbers.)

              I track each number in it's own column, and a new row is inserted so that all current draws are added to the top of the list. To me, the 3 would follow the 6. The 4 would follow the 7. And the 5 would follow the 8. I realize that some, or most of you are tracking by the complete number, but I've broken down the numbers to their individual positions.

              My thinking is that it may be easier to predict a single number draw versus the complete draw.

              Now to my skips/gaps table.

              I have each draw numbered (IE: 1 thru ??? [whatever the draws are up to]), starting with the 1st draw from that specific matrix. I created formulas that will subtract the previous draw number from the current draw number. Then I count specific draw skips/gaps. By doing it this way, I discovered that when the drawn number has a smaller skip/gap number, it's hitting more often. Which is opposite of counting the drawn numbers (frequencies).

              The "hot" drawn number frequencies are higher, but the skip/gap frequencies are lower for the same numbers.

              This is way I asked my original question. I'm attempting to figure out (understand) how to combine the percentages. So far nothing makes sense mathematically. I haven't figured out how to combine the different percentages yet to have a specific number stick out yet.

              Any way, back to the dungeon... Thanks for asking.

              KH

                        The only DUMB question is the one question you DID NOT ask...

                Avatar

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                Posted: May 26, 2011, 7:52 am - IP Logged

                I PMed you a file link to something I was kicking around a while back and never got around to following through with where it was headed.  The formulas are still on it, but it's EXCEL and I don't know whether you'll be able to load it.  Maybe it will give you some ideas for looking at it in ways you mightn't have otherwise.  If you can't load it let me know.

                  CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                  ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                  Posted: May 26, 2011, 10:03 am - IP Logged

                  KH,

                  Thanks for the explanation. I use followers,also. In the image, first table are hits, second table, skips.

                   

                    Raven62's avatar - binary
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                    Posted: May 26, 2011, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

                    Hello CARBOB,

                    I may have my terminology incorrect, again, but I refer to "followers" as the number in the next draw.

                    An example would be:

                    3 4 5   (Currently drawn numbers.)

                    6 7 8   (Previously drawn numbers.)

                    I track each number in it's own column, and a new row is inserted so that all current draws are added to the top of the list. To me, the 3 would follow the 6. The 4 would follow the 7. And the 5 would follow the 8. I realize that some, or most of you are tracking by the complete number, but I've broken down the numbers to their individual positions.

                    My thinking is that it may be easier to predict a single number draw versus the complete draw.

                    Now to my skips/gaps table.

                    I have each draw numbered (IE: 1 thru ??? [whatever the draws are up to]), starting with the 1st draw from that specific matrix. I created formulas that will subtract the previous draw number from the current draw number. Then I count specific draw skips/gaps. By doing it this way, I discovered that when the drawn number has a smaller skip/gap number, it's hitting more often. Which is opposite of counting the drawn numbers (frequencies).

                    The "hot" drawn number frequencies are higher, but the skip/gap frequencies are lower for the same numbers.

                    This is way I asked my original question. I'm attempting to figure out (understand) how to combine the percentages. So far nothing makes sense mathematically. I haven't figured out how to combine the different percentages yet to have a specific number stick out yet.

                    Any way, back to the dungeon... Thanks for asking.

                    KH

                    Are you tracking Str8 or Boxed Combinations? Your example shows boxed, but I had to ask!

                    More often than not the boxed combination that follows the last drawn boxed combination has not followed the last drawn combination before. However the combination that follows the last drawn combination usually has a high skip value.

                    A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

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                      Posted: May 26, 2011, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

                      Hello JosephusMinimus,

                      If you've read any of my posts concerning lottery draws, you would have understood that I don't have the education behind me that would have provided me with preconceived ideas about statistics, probabilities, etc.

                      I don't understand those conventions and how they work. That's why most of what I ask seems off the wall to most people.

                      I'm developing my ideas as I go along.

                      I'd be very interested to hear how others are using "Followers" to figure things out. I'd also be interested in how they gather the info about the "Followers". I've gotten my own ideas about that also. I'd also be very interested in what results they're getting.

                      Thank you for replying.

                      KH

                      I'm not able to tell whether you accessed the linked file.  If there's a way on dropbox to find out I'm not aware of what it is.  Anyway, I'll leave it up a couple of days.  I've got enough elbow-room in the free dropbox account to leave it up that long.

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                        Posted: May 26, 2011, 9:54 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm not able to tell whether you accessed the linked file.  If there's a way on dropbox to find out I'm not aware of what it is.  Anyway, I'll leave it up a couple of days.  I've got enough elbow-room in the free dropbox account to leave it up that long.

                        PM me if you download it and see anything there you want to discuss in more detail.

                          Avatar

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                          Posted: May 27, 2011, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                          PM me if you download it and see anything there you want to discuss in more detail.

                          Let me know what version of EXCEL you have.  I'll save to that version and re-upload it.

                            lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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                            Posted: June 18, 2011, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

                            Is this program available?

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                              Posted: June 20, 2011, 11:34 am - IP Logged

                              Is this program available?

                              lakerben:  If the question was directed to me the answer is probably different than it would be if it's directed to someone else.  KH sparked my renewed interest in the question and I've done some work in EXCEL on a 'mechanical' approach somewhat as described above by RL.  I used the Lottery Director histories to compile the histories for 13-14 lotteries, imported them to EXCEL, spread the draw results out 40 columns wide to allow them to be more easily filtered and sorted.

                              Then I copied all those same draws and pasted them immediately to the right of the first ones to provide the 'followers'.

                              I deleted the first row in the followers set, so on the left the draw results for each date are on the same row as the draw results for the next draw in each lottery.  By filtering the results in the left set it brings up what hit the day after any combination of numbers was drawn.

                              Nothing fancy and a ram-hog, but simple and easy to put together if you are an EXCEL user

                              ValidationAll statements made above are accurate, precise, lucid and sometimes supported by factoids written down somewhere.