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Powerball at $2.00 - What jackpot level do you start playing?

Topic closed. 48 replies. Last post 5 years ago by JADELottery.

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What jackpot level do you start playing?

$40 Million (starting jackpot) [ 39 ]  [47.56%]
$80 Million [ 3 ]  [3.66%]
$100 Million [ 15 ]  [18.29%]
$250 Million [ 13 ]  [15.85%]
$500 Million [ 2 ]  [2.44%]
$1 Billion [ 1 ]  [1.22%]
$10 Billion [ 2 ]  [2.44%]
$100 Billion [ 2 ]  [2.44%]
Will Not Play at any Jackpot [ 5 ]  [6.10%]
Total Valid Votes [ 82 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
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The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
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Posted: January 5, 2012, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

hey im not even in usa, so i shouldnt have voted. but i mist say if giviern the option of sending $2 via paypal and getting a reliable ticket purchase. id start at $250M

That's ok.

We have to factor in any number of lottery industry butt-plugs skewing the results as well.

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Jehocifer

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    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3474 Posts
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    Posted: January 6, 2012, 3:06 am - IP Logged

    I won't  make a decison based on an arbitrary amount. Spending $2 for a chance at a cash jackpot of $100 million or more becomes stupid shortly beyond the point where the same $2 would make you twice as likely to win a Megamillions jackpot that's half of the PB jackpot. Spending twice as much for the same odds demands a possible reward that's at least twice as big. The bigger 2nd prize means PB offers a very slightly better risk to reward ratio at double the jackpot value, but the ratio becomes even very close to that point.

    Even if the PB jackpot would net 3 or 4 times as much I'm likely to go with the 2x better chance of winning a comparatively modest MM jackpot. I'm sure I could make good use of $100 million (cash), but anything over $10 million would guarantee all of my reasonable indulgences, and several unreasonable ones, for the rest of my life. There's a limited upside to taking twice as much risk for the chance to get more than you could easily use. Still, if PB reaches a cash value of more than $200 million I may get a ticket if the MM jackpot is fairly modest. Maybe $200 million + for PB when MM is under $40 million. At a guess I wouldn't expect my annual spending on PB to exceed $20.

      dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
      Oklahoma
      United States
      Member #82391
      November 12, 2009
      6290 Posts
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      Posted: January 6, 2012, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

      $40 million sounds good to meSmile

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        NEW YORK
        United States
        Member #90535
        April 29, 2010
        11979 Posts
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        Posted: January 6, 2012, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

        Most of you probably know my answer.

        Let's see yours.

        What's your answer.I guess it is $250 millions since you know your maths.I can't believe that 50% of you guys will start playing at $40 millions.The reason powerball increased the jackpot was because many players were playing the jackpot when it reached $100 millions.

        I will make that extra dollar work by waiting until it reaches $100 millions to start playing.I feel that $2 for a $100 millions starting jackpot is a great deal.

        The powerball will jump so many times to $100 millions that we might not realize our buying points.

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          NEW YORK
          United States
          Member #90535
          April 29, 2010
          11979 Posts
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          Posted: January 6, 2012, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

          looks like only half the people are going ot play at the start, and a quarter are going to wait till it jackpots to  $250 mill!  i imagine the jackpots will    collect slower if only half are playing.  still 40m is a good start.

          i weonder how fast the millions will collect?

          50% playing at the starting jackpot of $40 millions before it goes to $100 millions is not bad.They said that the jackpot will increase by $10 millions multiply by 6 drawings =$60 millions plus $40 millions =$100 millions.  It will reach $100 millions in no time since 42 states will be playing.

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            NEW YORK
            United States
            Member #90535
            April 29, 2010
            11979 Posts
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            Posted: January 6, 2012, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

            The best way to know if I like the new format is to play the first couple of draws.  Then will reveiw.

            Man that thing will jump like fire.$40 millions is a life changing amount with cash value of more than $20 millions plus with a chance of winning $1 million for the same price.No wonder many players will start playing at $40 millions.This new powerball game matrix will create some gambling problem.

            It seems to me like a big prize scratch game.

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              New Jersey
              United States
              Member #21206
              September 4, 2005
              949 Posts
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              Posted: January 11, 2012, 11:12 am - IP Logged

              I won't  make a decison based on an arbitrary amount. Spending $2 for a chance at a cash jackpot of $100 million or more becomes stupid shortly beyond the point where the same $2 would make you twice as likely to win a Megamillions jackpot that's half of the PB jackpot. Spending twice as much for the same odds demands a possible reward that's at least twice as big. The bigger 2nd prize means PB offers a very slightly better risk to reward ratio at double the jackpot value, but the ratio becomes even very close to that point.

              Even if the PB jackpot would net 3 or 4 times as much I'm likely to go with the 2x better chance of winning a comparatively modest MM jackpot. I'm sure I could make good use of $100 million (cash), but anything over $10 million would guarantee all of my reasonable indulgences, and several unreasonable ones, for the rest of my life. There's a limited upside to taking twice as much risk for the chance to get more than you could easily use. Still, if PB reaches a cash value of more than $200 million I may get a ticket if the MM jackpot is fairly modest. Maybe $200 million + for PB when MM is under $40 million. At a guess I wouldn't expect my annual spending on PB to exceed $20.

              I plan to look at the expectation value, the ratio the ratio of the overall prize to the cost times the odds.

              I have already calculated the fixed expectation value for lower prizes.   Because of the $1M second prize, this expectation is still around 0.17 so any increase has to come from the jackpot.

              Historically big lotteries have had expectation values close to 1.0 and even on occassion exceeding that.    For Powerball as it has operated up to now, the pretax expectation value approaches unity (a good bet) at around $380M, including adjustments for the Poisson distribution that describes the probable number of winners.   The Poisson distribution actually slightly increases expectation values, since it raises the probability of there just being one winner of a large jackpot.

              The new format - with a very crude approximation of sales figures, say 350 million in sales on a single draw - I'd estimate would only approach 1 in the 3/4 billion range.   I doubt it will be there often.    At 350 million in sales, the rollover probability and the single winner probability are equal, about 37%

              Overall the best expectation values are likely to be found in MM in the future.

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                Elkins,WV
                United States
                Member #3210
                January 3, 2004
                66 Posts
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                Posted: January 16, 2012, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                If you look at the new payouts it does'nt pay to play powerplay as much as it use to, playing a $2 tickets get's you about the same and you still can win a Million so why pay another $1 the new payouts suck!   Angry

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                  United States
                  Member #73904
                  April 28, 2009
                  14903 Posts
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                  Posted: January 16, 2012, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

                  I won't  make a decison based on an arbitrary amount. Spending $2 for a chance at a cash jackpot of $100 million or more becomes stupid shortly beyond the point where the same $2 would make you twice as likely to win a Megamillions jackpot that's half of the PB jackpot. Spending twice as much for the same odds demands a possible reward that's at least twice as big. The bigger 2nd prize means PB offers a very slightly better risk to reward ratio at double the jackpot value, but the ratio becomes even very close to that point.

                  Even if the PB jackpot would net 3 or 4 times as much I'm likely to go with the 2x better chance of winning a comparatively modest MM jackpot. I'm sure I could make good use of $100 million (cash), but anything over $10 million would guarantee all of my reasonable indulgences, and several unreasonable ones, for the rest of my life. There's a limited upside to taking twice as much risk for the chance to get more than you could easily use. Still, if PB reaches a cash value of more than $200 million I may get a ticket if the MM jackpot is fairly modest. Maybe $200 million + for PB when MM is under $40 million. At a guess I wouldn't expect my annual spending on PB to exceed $20.

                  "At a guess I wouldn't expect my annual spending on PB to exceed $20."

                  Wow. 

                  Last of the big-time spenders.

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                    United States
                    Member #73904
                    April 28, 2009
                    14903 Posts
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                    Posted: January 17, 2012, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                    $40 million sounds good to meSmile

                    Roger that, Dallas!  Thumbs Up

                      lotsofwins's avatar - half planet.jpg
                      Texas
                      United States
                      Member #114703
                      August 5, 2011
                      4623 Posts
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                      Posted: January 17, 2012, 10:47 pm - IP Logged

                      thrifty I tend to play when the jackpots are lower-(yes, it's hard to hit powerball, but my reasoning is that its even tougher when you get all the people who don't normally play, playing the bigger jackpots)

                        OldSchoolPa's avatar - Lottery-057.jpg
                        Gurnee, Illinois
                        United States
                        Member #49731
                        February 12, 2007
                        917 Posts
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                        Posted: January 20, 2012, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

                        I won't  make a decison based on an arbitrary amount. Spending $2 for a chance at a cash jackpot of $100 million or more becomes stupid shortly beyond the point where the same $2 would make you twice as likely to win a Megamillions jackpot that's half of the PB jackpot. Spending twice as much for the same odds demands a possible reward that's at least twice as big. The bigger 2nd prize means PB offers a very slightly better risk to reward ratio at double the jackpot value, but the ratio becomes even very close to that point.

                        Even if the PB jackpot would net 3 or 4 times as much I'm likely to go with the 2x better chance of winning a comparatively modest MM jackpot. I'm sure I could make good use of $100 million (cash), but anything over $10 million would guarantee all of my reasonable indulgences, and several unreasonable ones, for the rest of my life. There's a limited upside to taking twice as much risk for the chance to get more than you could easily use. Still, if PB reaches a cash value of more than $200 million I may get a ticket if the MM jackpot is fairly modest. Maybe $200 million + for PB when MM is under $40 million. At a guess I wouldn't expect my annual spending on PB to exceed $20.

                        That sounds good, but what if the numbers you now only play on Mega Millions because it is a $1 ticket game roll for Powerball?  But since you didn't buy a Powerball ticket, you didn't win.  I think I will shell out the 2 bucks for my chance at millions.

                        Get MONEY!!! Winning a JACKPOT lottery is all the HOPE and CHANGE I desire!!!  NOW give me MONEY!US Flag

                        The guy who won the presidency in 2008 really won the lottery...he is now millions richer, travels in first class style, and even has a staff that would be the envy of the richest Powerball winner (she has a staff of 2). Every night he goes to sleep, he probably plays the close of Dave Chappelle's Show: I'm rich beyatch!

                          OldSchoolPa's avatar - Lottery-057.jpg
                          Gurnee, Illinois
                          United States
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                          February 12, 2007
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                          Posted: January 20, 2012, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

                          thrifty I tend to play when the jackpots are lower-(yes, it's hard to hit powerball, but my reasoning is that its even tougher when you get all the people who don't normally play, playing the bigger jackpots)

                          The number of people buying a ticket for the jackpot has no effect on your chances of winning.  Only the number combinations affect your chances of winning and they are clearly stated on the back of the play slip or on the website.  I play every drawing as the amount of the jackpot is irrelevant until you have a ticket with the matching numbers.  Until that time, it is just a hope and a dream!

                          Get MONEY!!! Winning a JACKPOT lottery is all the HOPE and CHANGE I desire!!!  NOW give me MONEY!US Flag

                          The guy who won the presidency in 2008 really won the lottery...he is now millions richer, travels in first class style, and even has a staff that would be the envy of the richest Powerball winner (she has a staff of 2). Every night he goes to sleep, he probably plays the close of Dave Chappelle's Show: I'm rich beyatch!

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19828 Posts
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                            Posted: January 20, 2012, 8:12 pm - IP Logged

                            Jackpot level means nothing to me, it's the cash value that tells me the real value of a jackpot.  At $2 a play, PowerBall cash value would have to be twice what MegaMillions is ever likely to be before I would play again which might make it jackpot level at more than $800M.  I usually play 20 or so lines when I play and right now I can't see paying $40 for what is being offered by MM for $20.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              New Member
                              Bellevue, Washington
                              United States
                              Member #121939
                              January 20, 2012
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                              Posted: January 20, 2012, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                              To anyone wondering how high of an amount the jackpot could reach this is what i sent to MUSL and the response i got:

                              Hi,

                              with the new game (after January 14th) what do you expect the new jackpots to be? A lot of people are throwing around crazy numbers but what do your mathematical simulations suggest? You stated that the average would go up to 255 million from 141 million but do you have estimates on how high they would go? Because on a lot of blogs people predict that they'll go as high as a billion which I dont think is possible...feel free to reply with a funny answer haha. 


                              Lottery player

                              and the reply was:
                              We are nearly doubling the money to the jackpot prize pool, so the jackpots will grow nearly twice as fast and get nearly twice as high (not quite double since it now easier to hit the jackpot). 
                               
                              Not much funny about numbers.  The Monte Carlo runs (simulating 10,000 years) shows a range of $152 Million to $576 million (after kicking out the outliers (10% of numbers)).  The Poisson run shows that the jackpot could reach $2.083 billion at its max – but that would occur only once in slightly more than 1,000 years. 
                               
                              Poisson is kind of funny, I guess.  He worked for Napoleon and was hired to predict how many of his generals would be kicked by a horse.