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Pre-tests vs Official Draws in Comparison

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 5 years ago by RL-RANDOMLOGIC.

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garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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Posted: January 9, 2012, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

Thought to call this "Missing Data Changed My Life," but that would not be true. Missing data in a Pick 3 game is not likely to change anyone's life unless they are playing $50 a set on 100 straights. If missing data is likely to change your life, it will be in a  jackpot game that pays a quarter of a million to $250 million. 

How many times do you hear someone say, "My numbers always hit in the pre-test?"

But do they?

In Texas there are 4 pre-test draws before the Official draw. To test that theory, I compiled the 11897 pre-tests and the 2958 Official draws from the Texas Cash5 (5/37). As you see in the chart, there is no appreciable difference in the percentage of time a number will hit. From the chart we can conclude that it only appears a number hits more often in the pre-test.

 

The AVERAGE number drawn over 11897 draws is 6 12 19 25 31. The same AVERAGE as in 2958 draws! HOW COOL IS THAT?

OH! A Big UPS and major thanks to RL-RANDOM for the sorting routine! RL that is several times faster than what I was using!

THANKS!Wink

    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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    Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

    Okay, so now we know that numbers do not fall more often in pre-test draws vs official draws. What next?

    Maybe more EVEN fall? Or ODD?

    Maybe more 2Even/3Odd fall?

    Could it be more 3Low and 2 Middle numbers hit more often than they should in pretest?

    Nope, none of that is happening. The Global percentages in the middle of the chart show the percentages for the overall matrix. That is, if you take the entire matrix and break it down by even/odd combos or high/middle/low combos those are the percentages you get for each category.  And in comparing the two databases it all seems to fall within the expected parameters.

    Yes, numbers will follow trends staying out 30, 50, 75 draws, as will eeooe's and LLMHH's. But that is part of the game.

    G

      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
      Tx
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      Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

      Without ever looking at any such stats I already thought that it would be like that.

      There is no reason to think that the so called random of pre-draws is not the same as that of regular winning draws.

      What is called random should always be the same and mostly in the long run.

      BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

      "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
        Tx
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        Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:18 pm - IP Logged

        If you only use the data of winning draws you predict for winning draws

        If you only use the data of pre-tests you predict for pre-tests

        If you use the data of Mondays you predict for Mondays

        If you only use the data of midday or day draws you predict or should predict for day or midday draws.

        Or you can combine the data and predict for the very next draw which-ever it might be Day or Night, day to night or night to day.

        Things are relative and statistics connect or relate otherwise not related or connected events.

        BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

        "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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          Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

          Without ever looking at any such stats I already thought that it would be like that.

          There is no reason to think that the so called random of pre-draws is not the same as that of regular winning draws.

          What is called random should always be the same and mostly in the long run.

          But Lantern I needed something to do wth the sorting program RL sent me! Wink

          Truth: I didn't expect to see anything different. I would have been surprised to see anything different than +/-2% anywhere.

          It seems to me, the reason we think things occur more often in the pre-test is because there are more pre-test.

            LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
            Tx
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            Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

            But Lantern I needed something to do wth the sorting program RL sent me! Wink

            Truth: I didn't expect to see anything different. I would have been surprised to see anything different than +/-2% anywhere.

            It seems to me, the reason we think things occur more often in the pre-test is because there are more pre-test.

            Right!

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362634

            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362642

            Now somebody says that one prediction is not enought that it must tbe done many times over and that besides pre draws do matter and that I should post with much more time before the draw.

            That anybody can get the winning number one time and the very first time also. (I would like others to try that and see how they do)

            Maybe I would if I thought that the drawings are honest, but I won't.

            BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

            "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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              Posted: January 9, 2012, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

              Congrats! That's cool. I should get back to playing pick 3 sometime soon.

              Right now spending a lot of time on 2Step and Cash5.

              Talking to the guy at the store this morning it seems like a few people are putting the money they were spending on powerball on the 2Step game.

                LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
                Tx
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                Posted: January 9, 2012, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                Congrats! That's cool. I should get back to playing pick 3 sometime soon.

                Right now spending a lot of time on 2Step and Cash5.

                Talking to the guy at the store this morning it seems like a few people are putting the money they were spending on powerball on the 2Step game.

                TxCash5 pays too little, at least the Tx2Step pays better.

                The MegaMillions  could go the way of PowerBall, I guess we will see.

                Maybe 52, 360 total combinations for the 4 main numbers!

                Key Digits or Bankers as they also are called could maybe cut down the number of combinations down some.

                Also proper wheeling.

                BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                  Posted: January 9, 2012, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                  Yep. Working on the pairs and triples for 2Step. Since Cash5 is not a rollover game, it's too much trouble to mess with.

                    LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                    Posted: January 9, 2012, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                    Yep. Working on the pairs and triples for 2Step. Since Cash5 is not a rollover game, it's too much trouble to mess with.

                    Are you using ExpertLotto or your own software, probably RL's software?

                    BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                    "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

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                      Posted: January 9, 2012, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

                      Thought to call this "Missing Data Changed My Life," but that would not be true. Missing data in a Pick 3 game is not likely to change anyone's life unless they are playing $50 a set on 100 straights. If missing data is likely to change your life, it will be in a  jackpot game that pays a quarter of a million to $250 million. 

                      How many times do you hear someone say, "My numbers always hit in the pre-test?"

                      But do they?

                      In Texas there are 4 pre-test draws before the Official draw. To test that theory, I compiled the 11897 pre-tests and the 2958 Official draws from the Texas Cash5 (5/37). As you see in the chart, there is no appreciable difference in the percentage of time a number will hit. From the chart we can conclude that it only appears a number hits more often in the pre-test.

                       

                      The AVERAGE number drawn over 11897 draws is 6 12 19 25 31. The same AVERAGE as in 2958 draws! HOW COOL IS THAT?

                      OH! A Big UPS and major thanks to RL-RANDOM for the sorting routine! RL that is several times faster than what I was using!

                      THANKS!Wink

                      your chart only shows the average hits of 0-9, but what's missing is the arrangement of numbers in combos that reveal a whole lot more. trends and patterns to be exact. of course your chart will show an almost equal amount of times a number will hit, that's just the laws of averages. this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same.

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                        Posted: January 9, 2012, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                        your chart only shows the average hits of 0-9, but what's missing is the arrangement of numbers in combos that reveal a whole lot more. trends and patterns to be exact. of course your chart will show an almost equal amount of times a number will hit, that's just the laws of averages. this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same.

                        "this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same."

                        Actually he proved it would be a bad bets to play the same number every drawing for 33 and 1/2 years and for 50,000 random players to buy $1 Pick 3 QP in 50,000 drawings.

                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                          Posted: January 9, 2012, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

                          "this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same."

                          Actually he proved it would be a bad bets to play the same number every drawing for 33 and 1/2 years and for 50,000 random players to buy $1 Pick 3 QP in 50,000 drawings.

                          Gotta love the Jimboozle, Stack!

                          He was fun for a PITA. Even when we disagreed, we laughed.

                          somer, that chart is for 1 to 37 in the Cash5 in Texas. I posted the charts for the pairs and the triples in another form in Developers thread. It might be fun to run it again and post real numbers this time. Some people like to see percentages, some like numbers. 

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                            Posted: January 10, 2012, 2:07 am - IP Logged

                            your chart only shows the average hits of 0-9, but what's missing is the arrangement of numbers in combos that reveal a whole lot more. trends and patterns to be exact. of course your chart will show an almost equal amount of times a number will hit, that's just the laws of averages. this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same.

                            somer

                            Using pre-draws in your analysis will produce different data but is the data produced easier or

                            more accurate to making predictions?  While in my opinion pre draws are a simple means to spot

                            any tampering  with the ball-set or the drawing apparatus,  I could ponder to say that it

                            might also effect the offical draw.  But on the same hand the draw is random and the pre-test

                            might work to one's favor.   Before anything could be proven one would need to know the order

                            of which the balls were introduced into the hopper.  If the entry process of the balls is sorted

                            in some fashion and then the 1st pretest balls are just placed back into the hopper this would

                            make the 2nd pre-test different then the first and so on and on.  If the balls are preloaded in the

                            same order then each pre-test should be no different than the offical draw.   I believe most anything

                            is possible but the problem is many of these concepts cannot be proven.  If you get better results 

                            including the pretest draws then please post your exact methods.   I don't believe in prediction but

                            at the same time I think we can improve our selections through data analysis.  I like to think I am

                            good at guessing.  I tried many times to put into code all the variables I use to make just one

                            guess, my programming skills failed me.  What the mind can do in a few seconds could take years

                            to program if it was even possible. 

                            Here is what I think, People who over many years of analsis build skills that give them an advantage

                            over random picks.  I can't prove this but I believe it. Those who focus on only a few methods will do

                            better overall then those who analyze many methods.   A jack of all trades may learn to do many things

                            but a person who focuses on a couple will be better equiped to do that which has been learned.  What

                            you see may be simply a product of focus.  Whatever it might be, if it works then use it.

                            RL

                            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                              Posted: January 10, 2012, 2:11 am - IP Logged

                              "this is something close to what Jimmy did to prove systems don't work. not the same."

                              Actually he proved it would be a bad bets to play the same number every drawing for 33 and 1/2 years and for 50,000 random players to buy $1 Pick 3 QP in 50,000 drawings.

                              I Agree!,  It's much more funny now then it was then. LMAO

                               

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020