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Cash Vs Annuity PaymentsPrev TopicNext Topic
well..... Would you rather take the payments or the cash option?..feel free to explain why....
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I am perplexed too see how many people have voted against choosing annuity option, which I see clearly a better choice.
Some arguments (as in February 2012)
1. choosing cash option means big reduction of starting capital, cash option is undervalued by 5-10% than it should, it depends on jackpot amount.
1.1 choosing annuity means lottery will need to allocate more capital for payment of increasing annuities, in time total amount of money gets bigger easier than with cash.
1.2 the value of the cash option will move in the opposite direction of interest rate movements, now we have low interest rates
1.2.1 with low stock dividend horizon too, you will have hard time to gradually increase your cash flow +4% per each year as annuity does, even in stagflation conditions.
1.2.2 conservative low risk asset allocation model consists mostly from bonds, certificate deposits etc. anyway. I suggest adding physical gold and silver to that too.
1.2.3 not even professional stock pickers can not exceed inflation or index funds today safely due to the costs, without risking the capital or additional tax consequeces.
1.3 with annuity you get time to learn money matters, you do no immediately blow all the money away.You will receive a check next year too. Very simple to understand.
1.4 Taxes take big part of your income. With annuity you pay hundreds of thousands of dollars less taxes in every year and save another in specialist fees.
1.4.1 Including taxes and fees you must net over 6% annually for 29 years in a row, after taxes, or just choose annuity with less effort and risk involved.
1.4.2 Time value of money. With annuity you compound more total capital tax free than with cash option. Because cash option penalizes winner both first in capital amount received and then taxes, this is exactly why advertised cash amount is that low, because the yield curve is better with annuity from the day one because more of capital.
1.5 Especially if you are non-resident foreign visitor player from high tax country, choosing annuity gives you time to relocate to other lower tax juristiction, you can save >50% in taxes compared to cash option (this is not valid option for Americans without getting another passport first etc.)
PS.By using the today facts at hand, not future guesstimates, there is no reason for you now to use nuclear bombs to wipe off Finland, like in South Park animation series.
Finland may be a stubborn country with some fairness issues thanks to its good education, but do give me a break here folks, annuity is the way to go, even for Americans.
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have a look at tax rate changes thru out history in usa. there was a 95% tax rate on the rich around the great depression.
the time value of money also means money now is always worth more than monet in the future. as you can spend it now, at todays prices. who knows what a dollar will buy in 10 years time, but at %6 we can guess half as much as it does now.
then there is the big fear of bankrupt states, most of the lotto annuity is paid in municipal bonds, and they may well be worth nothing in 10 years never mind 30.
sure if we had honest gov, and honest businesses and honest politicians, an annuity would be a great idea.
but now? here? not for me. ill take cash. and lose my money myself , instead of letting the gov lose it for me.
" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968
:
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Cash all the way. The annuity, especially right now, is a horrible investment. Interest rates on low risk government backed securities which is what they buy to fund the annuity are about as low as they can possibly go. Federal taxes in the United States are also at historic lows and will need to come up eventually.
Using the compound interest formula Powerball only earns 1.67% annually on their annuity investments, Mega Millions only earns 1.31%. I live in one of the highest income tax states and after all taxes were paid (not just withholding) all I would have to do is earn 3.75% per year to beat the PB over 29 years or 3.55% to beat MM. If you want to get really ambitious 7.08% would exceed the PB annuity in only 15 years, that's well within the realm of possibility in today's market.
Real estate is starting to find its bottom so there are a ton of deals out there to be had. In our quarterly profit/loss obsessed business and investing culture there are tons of opportunities for an old fashioned value investor willing to do their own analysis and find the deals instead of following the herd.
My plan would be to move to a income tax free state. 10% of the winnings would go to setting myself up in my new life (home, some travel, car, etc, etc). 10% would go into conservative investments so that if I lost everything else the proceeds would pay my living expenses forever. The other 80% would go into 10-20 carefully selected value investments.
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Quote: Originally posted by jones69 on Feb 23, 2012
I am perplexed too see how many people have voted against choosing annuity option, which I see clearly a better choice.
Some arguments (as in February 2012)
1. choosing cash option means big reduction of starting capital, cash option is undervalued by 5-10% than it should, it depends on jackpot amount.
1.1 choosing annuity means lottery will need to allocate more capital for payment of increasing annuities, in time total amount of money gets bigger easier than with cash.
1.2 the value of the cash option will move in the opposite direction of interest rate movements, now we have low interest rates
1.2.1 with low stock dividend horizon too, you will have hard time to gradually increase your cash flow +4% per each year as annuity does, even in stagflation conditions.
1.2.2 conservative low risk asset allocation model consists mostly from bonds, certificate deposits etc. anyway. I suggest adding physical gold and silver to that too.
1.2.3 not even professional stock pickers can not exceed inflation or index funds today safely due to the costs, without risking the capital or additional tax consequeces.
1.3 with annuity you get time to learn money matters, you do no immediately blow all the money away.You will receive a check next year too. Very simple to understand.
1.4 Taxes take big part of your income. With annuity you pay hundreds of thousands of dollars less taxes in every year and save another in specialist fees.
1.4.1 Including taxes and fees you must net over 6% annually for 29 years in a row, after taxes, or just choose annuity with less effort and risk involved.
1.4.2 Time value of money. With annuity you compound more total capital tax free than with cash option. Because cash option penalizes winner both first in capital amount received and then taxes, this is exactly why advertised cash amount is that low, because the yield curve is better with annuity from the day one because more of capital.
1.5 Especially if you are non-resident foreign visitor player from high tax country, choosing annuity gives you time to relocate to other lower tax juristiction, you can save >50% in taxes compared to cash option (this is not valid option for Americans without getting another passport first etc.)
PS.By using the today facts at hand, not future guesstimates, there is no reason for you now to use nuclear bombs to wipe off Finland, like in South Park animation series.
Finland may be a stubborn country with some fairness issues thanks to its good education, but do give me a break here folks, annuity is the way to go, even for Americans.
Worst economy EVER! , since the great 1929 depression. International banks and corporations as well as State and municipal governments declaring bankruptcy at alarming never seen before rates.
Lowest mortgage rates and home values adjusted for inflation in recent history.
ALWAYS TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!!! Once your state government's economy is sunk....so are you. What good is an annuity if the government is insolvent and unable to pay it.?
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Quote: Originally posted by Babel on Feb 23, 2012
Cash all the way. The annuity, especially right now, is a horrible investment. Interest rates on low risk government backed securities which is what they buy to fund the annuity are about as low as they can possibly go. Federal taxes in the United States are also at historic lows and will need to come up eventually.
Using the compound interest formula Powerball only earns 1.67% annually on their annuity investments, Mega Millions only earns 1.31%. I live in one of the highest income tax states and after all taxes were paid (not just withholding) all I would have to do is earn 3.75% per year to beat the PB over 29 years or 3.55% to beat MM. If you want to get really ambitious 7.08% would exceed the PB annuity in only 15 years, that's well within the realm of possibility in today's market.
Real estate is starting to find its bottom so there are a ton of deals out there to be had. In our quarterly profit/loss obsessed business and investing culture there are tons of opportunities for an old fashioned value investor willing to do their own analysis and find the deals instead of following the herd.
My plan would be to move to a income tax free state. 10% of the winnings would go to setting myself up in my new life (home, some travel, car, etc, etc). 10% would go into conservative investments so that if I lost everything else the proceeds would pay my living expenses forever. The other 80% would go into 10-20 carefully selected value investments.
You do know that with annuity payments they make *payments* every year, right? Your figure of 1.31% for MM is the rate that would turn the cash value into the annuity amount if the full cash value plus interest remained invested for the 25 year period of the annuity. MM is easier, since the payment is the same every year. The current MM annuity value is $83 million, which means annual payments of just uner $3,192,308 per year, and a cash value of $60.4 million. If somebody takes the annuity the cash value is immediately reduced by the first payment, leaving an investment of $57,207,692. At an interest rate of just under 2.75% it would grow to $58,777,471 at the end of the first year, and would then be reduced by the 2nd annual payment. Here's what that looks like over the 25 year payout:
year principal income 0 $57,207,692 $3,192,307 1 $55,585,164 $3,192,307 2 $53,918,114 $3,192,307 3 $52,205,320 $3,192,307 4 $50,445,527 $3,192,307 5 $48,637,445 $3,192,307 6 $46,779,750 $3,192,307 7 $44,871,079 $3,192,307 8 $42,910,035 $3,192,307 9 $40,895,179 $3,192,307 10 $38,825,036 $3,192,307 11 $36,698,088 $3,192,307 12 $34,512,776 $3,192,307 13 $32,267,500 $3,192,307 14 $29,960,613 $3,192,307 15 $27,590,425 $3,192,307 16 $25,155,199 $3,192,307 17 $22,653,151 $3,192,307 18 $20,082,446 $3,192,307 19 $17,441,202 $3,192,307 20 $14,727,481 $3,192,307 21 $11,939,296 $3,192,307 22 $9,074,604 $3,192,307 23 $6,131,304 $3,192,307 24 $3,107,240 $3,192,307 25 $195 $3,192,307 Figuring a state tax of 5%, taking the cash would leave you with $36,240,000. Keep $3,192,308 for the first year and you can invest $33,047,692. Generating the same annual income for the same 25 years would require an interest rate of just over 8.36%. In a high tax state you'd need better than 9%. It's possible to get a rate that high, but only with luck and a lot of risk.
Of course maybe you're not planning on dying 26 years from today, and hope to have an income that continues for more than just 35 years. That means earning a lot more than 9% or not spending the whole $3.19 million every year. Fortunately you can get by on 2/3 of that and hardly have to make any sacrifices at all.
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Savagegoose, you made some good arguments and I thank you for doing it.
While I decided to process only facts at first, I see it is that human mind processes fear first and desires instant gratification,
all this explains why cash sum has become such popular, even the mathematical evidence is given.
Yep, negative outcome (tax,inflation,collapse of society etc.) is remotely possible but why to worry about it TOO much before that actually happens ?
If you visualize bad outcome, it may manifest easier, so better think positively instead. Have a good one, as they say at the cashier.
I did know about historic extremes regarding interest rates, tax brackets or hyperinflation events while I wrote my 1st comment
but decided to deleted guesstimates such as currency controls away from calculations made.
We are living time of offshore investments, globalization and improved communications, not 1930 or 80 again.
The real factors such as inflation still exists in food and power. Now it is cost-push inflation too because of more people will fight for "stuff".
Inflation confiscates your savings and purchase power. For this reason having more starting capital and doing investing in tax free cocoon
will most likely beat cash option, even the given sums or investments would be exactly the same, due to taxman.
You might be wizard in investing, but I am not in the long run and I will not become better even after being lucky to win huge amount of money.
E.g. commodity broker or bank goes under and your investments go poof too, even your were account fully funded, you can not recover there unless with annuity.
I have had experience with 10 bagger stocks in my portfolio, but it still takes forever to get into millions if you pay taxes all the time, this why annuity is my choice because there are not such middlemen that can go completely fail. Your cash investments nullify too if US treasury notes cease to have any value left, but that is never going to happen, because US dollar is backed up by US military, petrodollar recycling etc. You can get insurance by possessing the real gold at hand before that bad day happens.
Annuity means that you can rise from the ashes next year(s), even if debtors would their share paid out first, you can come back into business because of automatic firewall. Annuity is better in tax terms than cash.Not only taxes are more predictable but when also more money works for you, it will increase cash flow.
I hate losses and also short-term paper money fluctuation, but saving the capital on purchase power terms means you have to stop making losses from the day one.
Timing the market is nearly impossible for the long run. I try to be positive and base my decisions on some facts, even in todays "rigged" investing environment.
Surely you will have a blast with REIT income or land line telecoms for short term, until interest rates do rise again or government stops moneyprinting, both that they can not do right now without rising the prize of gas etc. Watering paper money is in global fashion now, just look gold since 2001. The same ounce it is.
Companies come and go, companies can not tax you directly, but countries can tax you, even you live abroad as American.
American infrastructure is surely aging, but authorities will collect taxes from you with cash option, just to pay my annuity :)
With annuity you will get the proceeds from investments indirectly but it also means it gives you some protection and continuity. Mad Max scenarios aside.
Some governments are more corrupted than others as as are politicians, but not too much here where I live so I did not give a tought to that aspect, my bad.
But how can you make a killing with you cash option when American businesses are paying such lousy dividends, especially if they are dishonest entities, why on earth would support them if you know them as liars ?
With annuity I feel like have really earned my income, after getting loaned out money back from road improvements etc. that will benefit everyone, bankers can go hell.
I would sleep better knowing that with annuity I do some good, even it is so that I will receive less money to spend for the first years than with lump sum.
Even it is actually the very opposite case after receiving annuity it few years and some malinvestments. You are here for your life, not for 2-10 years of spending & bust.
Cash option is promoted for in media and in advertisements. Ask yourself why is that ? With cash option lottery needs to put less money down and
specialists will suck you dry with % fees etc, no wonder why false advice for choosing lump have been favoured in the media and thus programmed into public mind.
You played for advertised jackpot, which was annuity payment BTW.
Why would you then compromize your efforts by choosing cash option instead, or did you fool yourself at the first place ? Or are you over 50 years old / soon to die without anyone left behind ? Then cash option makes some sense.
What you can not get you instantly with annuity, ask yourself do you really need it ? Remember operating costs down the road if you buy used space shuttle.
I would buy a ticket to Virgin Galactic instead, actually get into the space or rent what I need before buying it. Renting makes sense today and so will annuity.
I am sure somebody will post some annuity calculations with a better local state knowledge than I do, but I suggest you to consider annuity before turning it completely down. Taking cash sounds desperate to me. I have no debt or big problems, for which I am grateful, so if I could live with modest millions for every year, so can you !
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@ BABEL:
Your views on interest rates and taxes are spot on. We may all be heading for a lost decade as Japan.
I am not saying cash option is a bad choice. Going either cash or annuity is not a perfect choice.
Babel, sounds like you have good plan, stick into that.Transition to wealth is not only numbers, but a social change too.
I see this as a BIG argument for annuity, you simply have not that much money to throw around that wish sudden cash intake.
Change that phone number and leave town, tell no-one anyway until get comfortable with your money first.
Real estate is abundant now, but basic asset allocation is the key to keep your windfall for decades what ever payment plan is chosen.
What is good with treasury bonds they do no get mold like Florida villas like or can burn down in bush fire etc.
What I am interested is how did you land on such interest formula and what parameters did you use for such low cash flow ?
I have googled the subject and landed to opposite results used for powerball clearly explaining step by step
how the decision making environment has changed considerably that choosing annuity should be now considered against mainstream favourite, cash.
Making your own decision is the key, not following the herd. Florida has no income tax. I left Orlando this week to Europe, $8 gas here
but I get 3.5% from bank account without a CD in euros here.Your interest rates in USA are next to nothing, but so are prices in general.
What I am saying we all have different views here, except we all want to win some big amount of money !
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Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on Feb 23, 2012
Worst economy EVER! , since the great 1929 depression. International banks and corporations as well as State and municipal governments declaring bankruptcy at alarming never seen before rates.
Lowest mortgage rates and home values adjusted for inflation in recent history.
ALWAYS TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!!! Once your state government's economy is sunk....so are you. What good is an annuity if the government is insolvent and unable to pay it.?
@MGGINNIN56
What you said must be partially true where you live, you know it better than me. Greece is <1% of Europe, but everyone is on the ropes for their lazyness of action.
Little preparation for bad times is ok, but because banking system is based on paper dollars from federal reserve that is a private bank, you must the faith to the system, otherwise you are supporting the system by playing lotteries. If you are not winning enough, better stop playing. Winning is easier to do than society to collapse, or is it ?
If you think collapse is coming then change all your fed dollars into real gold, silver, guns, ammo, non-perishable food and barter items such as lighters or soap.
I see the main reason for bad times today is having too much debt intake and malinvestment, wasting things like gas, while not making needed energy & infrastructure adjustments in time when money still could by oil bought cheaply. In Europe they drive with 1.2 liter twinturbo cars but in USA you must have F-150 or similar gas guzzler, why is that ? Obvious choice for trucks would be natural gas. Buffett bought rails after ensuring no oil pipeline coming instead.
Inflation reduced renewal of tarmac.Paying big banks multiple times for the value that never was there, except on a ledger, to save the money system, puts everyone to the same basket of global domino game possibility. Having that said, lets us not get into the despair. What would big money help us but cause sleepless nights if we choose that direction. Knowing too much hurt me and you. You have to live a little with todays resources too.
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Yes I understand how the annuity works and yes the compound interest formula over simplifies the question but the basic fact remains, government bonds are at very very low rates and taxes are at low rates. If you look at treasury.gov at the start of this year yields were 0.01 to 2.98, and only the 20 and 30 year notes are over 2. Go back 5 years to 07 and the yields were 4.68 to 5.11 and it was the 3 month to 1 year notes that were all over 5.
All they do with the annuity is take the cash in the jackpot pool and invest it in a package of government bonds, then give you a payment every year for 25/29 years (not counting the first up front payment). On the plus side if the investments don't perform they are under contract to make those payments to you so you will get paid anway. However if the investments overperform or the market conditions improve? Too bad, you are stuck with the package of bonds the bought and any extra that might be left over isn't going to find its way to your account. You are also victim of changing tax conditions and I believe tax rates in the US will go up. You won't be able to vote with your feet to avoid state level taxation because you will ultimately be taxed at the higher of the rate in the state you won in or the state you end up living in.
With the cash option you settle your full tax bill now before rates go up. You are free to move to somewhere more tax advantagous. You are free to structure your money to both meet daily expense needs and long term growth desires. Instead of having your entire portfolio stuck in a single low performing asset where your earnings are locked for the next 2 decades you can take advantage of various market opportunites. You can structure things to take advantage of the tax code such as tax free bonds or the ultra low 15% long term cap gains rate instead of having to pay the max ordinary income rate no matter how high it goes each and every year.
For me the cash option is the only way to go. Heck the idea of having a pile of money to invest like that, creating jobs for friends and family, finding good investments, doing some good in the world, that would be the main fun in winning all that money. I very much would like to be a Brad Duke style winner. That might not be the choice for you. You might not want to become an investor or a businessperson and would rather have the certainty of the same check every month. That's not the route I'd take though.
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100The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
United States
Member #73,902
April 28, 2009
15,378 Posts
Offline@ jones69,
Let me explain this as simply as I can.
The reason the overwhelming majority of Americans want the Cash Option is because we don't have a stable government. There is no one at the helm. We elected a community organizer who can read speeches off a teleprompter better than anybody but is in way over his head as President. He's a committed socialist in a capitalist society and he's trying to collapse our Republic so he can build his socialist empire.
You may have a stable government in Finland.
We don't.
We want the cash.
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Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Feb 23, 2012
You do know that with annuity payments they make *payments* every year, right? Your figure of 1.31% for MM is the rate that would turn the cash value into the annuity amount if the full cash value plus interest remained invested for the 25 year period of the annuity. MM is easier, since the payment is the same every year. The current MM annuity value is $83 million, which means annual payments of just uner $3,192,308 per year, and a cash value of $60.4 million. If somebody takes the annuity the cash value is immediately reduced by the first payment, leaving an investment of $57,207,692. At an interest rate of just under 2.75% it would grow to $58,777,471 at the end of the first year, and would then be reduced by the 2nd annual payment. Here's what that looks like over the 25 year payout:
year principal income 0 $57,207,692 $3,192,307 1 $55,585,164 $3,192,307 2 $53,918,114 $3,192,307 3 $52,205,320 $3,192,307 4 $50,445,527 $3,192,307 5 $48,637,445 $3,192,307 6 $46,779,750 $3,192,307 7 $44,871,079 $3,192,307 8 $42,910,035 $3,192,307 9 $40,895,179 $3,192,307 10 $38,825,036 $3,192,307 11 $36,698,088 $3,192,307 12 $34,512,776 $3,192,307 13 $32,267,500 $3,192,307 14 $29,960,613 $3,192,307 15 $27,590,425 $3,192,307 16 $25,155,199 $3,192,307 17 $22,653,151 $3,192,307 18 $20,082,446 $3,192,307 19 $17,441,202 $3,192,307 20 $14,727,481 $3,192,307 21 $11,939,296 $3,192,307 22 $9,074,604 $3,192,307 23 $6,131,304 $3,192,307 24 $3,107,240 $3,192,307 25 $195 $3,192,307 Figuring a state tax of 5%, taking the cash would leave you with $36,240,000. Keep $3,192,308 for the first year and you can invest $33,047,692. Generating the same annual income for the same 25 years would require an interest rate of just over 8.36%. In a high tax state you'd need better than 9%. It's possible to get a rate that high, but only with luck and a lot of risk.
Of course maybe you're not planning on dying 26 years from today, and hope to have an income that continues for more than just 35 years. That means earning a lot more than 9% or not spending the whole $3.19 million every year. Fortunately you can get by on 2/3 of that and hardly have to make any sacrifices at all.
KY Floyd made a good input with his estimated payouts. In Powerball annuities increase every year by 4%.
Actual sums become 100% sure after only after are all paid out, it should be noted.
We do not know future interest rates either, but those appear to be on zero level, even negative real rates appears to exist, supporting gold.
Since most people do choose cash option, they must be 100% certain they can gain themself much more what having simple annuity
plan providing it all automatically year after year.
The capital level between cash and annuity option can not be equalized by anything else than more aggressive investing
or suddenly more favourable business climate.
Everyone back to arguments, facts or examples, including me, ok ?
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Quote: Originally posted by rdgrnr on Feb 23, 2012
@ jones69,
Let me explain this as simply as I can.
The reason the overwhelming majority of Americans want the Cash Option is because we don't have a stable government. There is no one at the helm. We elected a community organizer who can read speeches off a teleprompter better than anybody but is in way over his head as President. He's a committed socialist in a capitalist society and he's trying to collapse our Republic so he can build his socialist empire.
You may have a stable government in Finland.
We don't.
We want the cash.
yes, yes, mama wants the cash.
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Quote: Originally posted by Jack-C on Feb 11, 2012
I have lost count of how many times this has been discussed and polls taken. It always comes out that the best option is CASH.
Jack-C:
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Cash all the way. Why pay maximum taxes on returns that barely beat inflation? Invest for a 6-8% return.I will use a part of returns for income let the rest rollover back in investments. I made a good post about this earlier.
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@ RDGRNR
I get it now. 104. Hearing the truth is as funny, but even funnier when it hurts.
Finland is small country, just 6 million winter night wanderers with serious fairness issues, I give you two examples:
1. Our new Eurojackpot jackpot is between 10-90 millions euros, that is TAX FREE, max 115 million dollars.Odds 1 to 56 million. Starts in next month. Pretty fair deal ?
2. Our next elected president still does his own snow-work at the yard. Thank God we get a man president after having female president for 2x6 years.
The second runner up was also a man, now hear this, he is openly gay and living with a man from Ecuador.Got lot of votes, even was from small green party.
With above things possible in real life, I am pretty sure that I will hit big jackpot soon !