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How to calculate "HITS" based on a numbers hit dates?Prev TopicNext Topic
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This may be useful to someone. It seems that in math, the Median is used to remove outlier numbers.
Median
The median is “the item in the middle”. But doesn’t the average (arithmetic mean) imply the same thing? What gives?
Humor me for a second: what’s the “middle” of these numbers?
- 1, 2, 3, 4, 100
Well, 3 is the middle of the list. And although the average (22) is somewhere in the “middle”, 22 doesn’t really represent the distribution. We’re more likely to get a number closer to 3 than to 22. The average has been pulled up by 100, an outlier.
The median solves this problem by taking the number in the middle of a sorted list. If there’s two middle numbers (even number of items), just take their average. Outliers like 100 only tug the median along one item in the sorted list, instead of making a drastic change: the median of 1 2 3 4 is 2.5.
Pros:
- Handles outliers well — often the most accurate representation of a group
- Splits data into two groups, each with the same number of items
Cons:
- Can be harder to calculate: you need to sort the list first
- Not as well-known; when you say “median”, people may think you mean “average”
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interesting stuff... when you say draws between draws...do you mean skips? i think most people would categorize it as "skips"...
i dont even really worry about the date i just look for a symmetric skip...using skip i cant remove outlier...if a skip of 100 occurred i would expect possibly a skip of 100 again...i do use dates as a timer though.
i suck at algebra.
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Googler,
Made a graph of days, 0 to 1400 on the X-axis and Hits, 0 to 750 on the Y-axis to see if any patterns could be recognized, but no luck, with only 10 points to plot.
My math background not strong enough to answer your question but think a few more data points will be needed to make any useful predictions. What do you think?
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In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency. -
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Sorry, I don't know about skips.
Draws between Draws is used on another site. Say that 234 hits today and again in 10 days. That 10 days is 20 Draws between Draws. The sit list each time that a number hits by Draws between Draws, and other ways. Being that the hit date varies, I was trying to decide if I should remove the outlier number to predict the next hit date. After I convert 10 Draws between Draws into days, I put the days into a Date Calculator on the web. This method gives you a suggested hit date. It has worked (luck)
for me a few days back. -
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Is there something that would have predicted those outlier numbers?
If you add the heights of every person, you can calculate an "average height" -- yet relatively few real people will be that height. The outliers tell you where the limits are. You also aren't getting any/many repeats.
In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency. -
HINT: average number of not drawn in endless time: '999'
You have a dice with 1000 faces! You get [500 - bet] when you are right.
If you pay 50% of the combinations and you will have guessed right,
then you didn't win anything.
