|Posted: March 19, 2012, 1:11 am - IP Logged|
Thanks for well written reply. Please excuse my Invincible Stupidity.
One the one hand, all lottery combinations will be picked the same number of times over a long period of time. I am inclined to believe this idea, it sounds logical.
On the other hand, combinations that add up to 150 (in a 6/49 lottery) will hit more often because there are more of them. My response is, So? So what?? (No sarcasm implied.)
How can both statements be true at the same time? Will combinations that add up to 150 get picked much sooner than combinations that add up to ..... 50?
Is that the advantage?
"all lottery combinations will be picked the same number of times over a long period of time"
It sounds logical, but that's not what happens. Each combination has the same chance of being drawn, regardless of what has happened previously. Suppose the game has gone on long enough that 1% of the combinations have already won. Those combinations are just as likely to be drawn in the future as any of the 99% that haven't been drawn, so in the next 1000 drawings we can expect that about 1% will come match one of the combinations that have already been drawn. That means that after the next 1000 drawings you'll have about 10 combinations that have been drawn a second time, while the vast majority haven't been drawn once.
That same thing will continue to happen with increasing frequency. When 10% of combinations have been sold we can expect that 10% of future drawings will result in a match to a previous drawing. Eventually 50% will have been drawn and we can expect every other drawing to result in another match. Continue long enough and the end result is that most combinations will have been drawn the same number of times, but a few will have been repeated and others won't have been drawn at all. Graph the results and you'll have a bell curve.
I'm not sure which 2 questions you're asking about, but there is no advantage. To simplify things let's imagine that there are 3 times as many combinations that add up to 150 as those that add up to 50. We would then expect the sum of the winning combination to be 150 3 times as often as it is 50 because there are 3 times as many of them. Compare it to drawing single cards from a standard deck. Instead of sums, split the cards into those that are spades and those that aren't. There will be 3 times as many in the second group as in the first, so each time you select a card there's a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a spade and a 3 in 4 chance of not drawing a spade. Knowing that there's a 75% chance of drawing a card that isn't a spade gives you no advantage in guessing which specific card will be drawn, because each of the 39 cards in the bigger group still has the same 1 in 52 chance of being drawn as each of the 13 in the smaller group.