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Anyone else find the jump in MM j/p surprising?

Topic closed. 52 replies. Last post 5 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Kentucky
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Posted: April 5, 2012, 2:48 pm - IP Logged

The reasoning behind is, you can't win and lower ranks don't pay. When the jackpot is huge, the player feels justified to play.

I think that it is a commercial trick.

The jackpot doesn't have to be huge because for a buck you can still win $250,000 or $1 million for $2 four nights a week. $6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream. The advertised jackpot is a ploy but they clearly point out the prize is paid out in yearly installments and state and federal taxes will be deducted each year.

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    Morrison, IL
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    Posted: April 5, 2012, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

    The lowest ticket sales I saw for the MM starting $12 million jackpot was around $14 million and the cash value is under $9 million. The individual states are responsible for paying the secondary prizes out of their sales so while collectively they show a small profit, some states could be in the red. With 5 + 0 paying $1 million in PB, that could definitely create problems for lotteries with smaller ticket sales.

    Back in the day when Lotto games started at $1 million, but paid the winners in 20 installments of $50,000, they only needed $50,000 in sales to cover the payout. The starting PB jackpot should always be higher than projected ticket sales, but since even $20 million in sales gives less than a 5% chance the jackpot will be hit, they are willing to take the gamble.

    Mega Millions allocates 31.8% of ticket sales to the jackpot winner.  $14 million in ticket sales would therefore equate to a cash jackpot of $4.45 million if the opening level wasn't guaranteed, so from the states' point of view, a $8.6 million opening cash jackpot would be underfunded by $4.15 million if it were won.  If the state pays out more than 50% of its sales in prizes, it is said to have lost money on the draw (of course, since the non-jackpot prizes are set prizes, there are expected to be draws where they pay out more than 50% in prizes as well as an equal amount where they pay out less than 50% of sales in prizes, since 0 match 5+0 winners would just be $$ going toward future draws where there's more match 5+0 winners than expected, for example).

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      dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
      Oklahoma
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      Posted: April 5, 2012, 7:14 pm - IP Logged

      Welcome to the LP Talisman!!!!!!!!!!!Thumbs Up

      I Love Pink & Green 1908

        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
        Texas
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        Posted: April 5, 2012, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

        The jackpot doesn't have to be huge because for a buck you can still win $250,000 or $1 million for $2 four nights a week. $6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream. The advertised jackpot is a ploy but they clearly point out the prize is paid out in yearly installments and state and federal taxes will be deducted each year.

        Exactly why I play EVERY draw. Even $250,000 retires all of my debt with some left over to fix up the house.

        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: April 5, 2012, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

          Mega Millions allocates 31.8% of ticket sales to the jackpot winner.  $14 million in ticket sales would therefore equate to a cash jackpot of $4.45 million if the opening level wasn't guaranteed, so from the states' point of view, a $8.6 million opening cash jackpot would be underfunded by $4.15 million if it were won.  If the state pays out more than 50% of its sales in prizes, it is said to have lost money on the draw (of course, since the non-jackpot prizes are set prizes, there are expected to be draws where they pay out more than 50% in prizes as well as an equal amount where they pay out less than 50% of sales in prizes, since 0 match 5+0 winners would just be $$ going toward future draws where there's more match 5+0 winners than expected, for example).

          It takes $27 million in sales to cover a cash value of $8.6, then every starting jackpot is in the red. Maybe people really believe the lotteries have money trees. The lotteries will always "make money" over time because of the take, but they won't give it away even if Thrifty calls their starting jackpot a joke.

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            Morrison, IL
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            Posted: April 5, 2012, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

            You're getting it now, Stack47.  In fact, the last two Powerball jackpots awarded (the guaranteed pots of $60 million and $70 million annuity) were in the red.

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              NEW YORK
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              Posted: April 6, 2012, 10:22 am - IP Logged

              It takes $27 million in sales to cover a cash value of $8.6, then every starting jackpot is in the red. Maybe people really believe the lotteries have money trees. The lotteries will always "make money" over time because of the take, but they won't give it away even if Thrifty calls their starting jackpot a joke.

              "As with any lottery, the government runs it as a revenue source. They can do this because if they sell enough lottery tickets, they come out ahead. The reverse is true for you. If you purchase enough lottery tickets in each drawing, you will always come out behind. In other words, the lottery is a game that can only be won in the short run."

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              PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                NEW YORK
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                Posted: April 6, 2012, 10:31 am - IP Logged

                The jackpot doesn't have to be huge because for a buck you can still win $250,000 or $1 million for $2 four nights a week. $6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream. The advertised jackpot is a ploy but they clearly point out the prize is paid out in yearly installments and state and federal taxes will be deducted each year.

                "$6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream."

                Why don't you spend the $24 or $32 monthly on one particular game? Thereof increasing your chances based on your $6 or $8 weekly budget without spending extra money.

                Spending $24 or $32 on one drawing is not going to be a big deal for you?

                You can play like a high roller by spending $24 or $32 monthly on one game drawing. How about this, why not spend $24 or $32 weekly instead of monthly on the lottery?

                How do you feel about spending your weekly lottery budget on one shot monthly or yearly?

                Remember you will have more chances of winning without spending extra money. Spending $288 or $384 on one shot every year is not a high price for a dream. Don't you agree?

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                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                  NEW YORK
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                  Posted: April 6, 2012, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                  The jackpot doesn't have to be huge because for a buck you can still win $250,000 or $1 million for $2 four nights a week. $6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream. The advertised jackpot is a ploy but they clearly point out the prize is paid out in yearly installments and state and federal taxes will be deducted each year.

                  How about spending $312 or $416 on one shot every year? Is that going to be a problem for you? You are just playing for the dream.

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                  PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                    NEW YORK
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                    Posted: April 6, 2012, 11:27 am - IP Logged

                    MM has 104 drawings a year and while I don't know the exact average of jackpots, 20 is less than 20%. In over 80% of the drawings you have a zero% chance of winning the jackpot.

                    I'm still willing to pay $1 on MM or $2 on PB for a dream, but I fully understand that out of the 651,915,940 $1 dreams bought on the last MM jackpot, only 3 came true.

                    Thanks for the tip. I am going to spend my weekly MM and PB budget  of $1 and $2 on one shot monthly, $4 on  MM and $8 on PB. Thereof increasing my chances without spending extra money.

                    How about spending $52 on MM and $104 on PB on one shot yearly?

                    I do not mind dreaming monthly or yearly. Do you?

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                    PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: April 6, 2012, 11:58 am - IP Logged

                      "As with any lottery, the government runs it as a revenue source. They can do this because if they sell enough lottery tickets, they come out ahead. The reverse is true for you. If you purchase enough lottery tickets in each drawing, you will always come out behind. In other words, the lottery is a game that can only be won in the short run."

                      Organized crime knew that over time if they paid $600 to $1 odds on a game with 1000 chances, they would make 40% profit on every bet they took and created the numbers racket. The state governments legalized that and other games of chance by promising the revenues would benefit all the residence of the state. Almost all the state lotteries get a 50% profit by only paying $500 to $1 and designed Lotto and other games with about the same or higher profit percentage. The multi-state games like PB and MM evolved from the state Lotto games knowing sales would grow as the jackpot grew.

                      "If you purchase enough lottery tickets in each drawing, you will always come out behind. In other words, the lottery is a game that can only be won in the short run."

                      You're forgetting that if a state lottery gets a 50% profit, they are paying out 50% of the sales for prizes. In one year Pennsylvania had $3 billion in ticket sales and paid out $1.8 billion (59.57%) in prizes. Those figures include scratch-off which account for 55.37% of the total sales. Some of the bigger states pick 3 games average $1 million in sales every day and $500,000 a day in prizes is enough for many players to win in the long run.

                      Your games of choice are PB and MM where 1 in every 32 tickets and 1 in every 40 tickets wins something. It's amazing how anyone buying 2 or 3 tickets would expect to win anything over a long or short run without bucking the odds and matching at least a 4 + 1. As I've said maybe too many times before, $6 or $8 a week isn't that expensive, but think of it as the price of four dreams and not a gamble.

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                        Lavender Rocket

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                        Posted: April 6, 2012, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

                        You're getting it now, Stack47.  In fact, the last two Powerball jackpots awarded (the guaranteed pots of $60 million and $70 million annuity) were in the red.

                        The last 2 jackpots were in the red?  The lottery actually LOST money on those 2 jackpots?  So what level does the jackpot have to reach for them to be in the black?  Will tomorrow's draw - at 80M$ be black or red?

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                          Morrison, IL
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                          Posted: April 6, 2012, 6:24 pm - IP Logged

                          The last 2 jackpots were in the red?  The lottery actually LOST money on those 2 jackpots?  So what level does the jackpot have to reach for them to be in the black?  Will tomorrow's draw - at 80M$ be black or red?

                          Tomorrow's PB jackpot is actually OVERFUNDED by $1.4 million (based on estimated draw sales of $30 million), but PB has to "steal" from the jackpot fund at times in order to maintain its emergency fund to pay the secondary prizes in excess of allocated funds as well as guaranteed jackpots.  Per their rules, they can skim as much as 2.5% of draw sales from the jackpot in order to maintain its set prize/guaranteed jackpot reserve.

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                            Posted: April 6, 2012, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

                            Could be because of advanced purchases by players believing of a possible rollover on the 650 million jackpot

                            My thoughts exactly

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: April 6, 2012, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

                              "$6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream."

                              Why don't you spend the $24 or $32 monthly on one particular game? Thereof increasing your chances based on your $6 or $8 weekly budget without spending extra money.

                              Spending $24 or $32 on one drawing is not going to be a big deal for you?

                              You can play like a high roller by spending $24 or $32 monthly on one game drawing. How about this, why not spend $24 or $32 weekly instead of monthly on the lottery?

                              How do you feel about spending your weekly lottery budget on one shot monthly or yearly?

                              Remember you will have more chances of winning without spending extra money. Spending $288 or $384 on one shot every year is not a high price for a dream. Don't you agree?

                              "Why don't you spend the $24 or $32 monthly on one particular game? Thereof increasing your chances based on your $6 or $8 weekly budget without spending extra money."

                              You're missing my point; you buy a $1 dream on Tuesday, a $2 dream on Wednesday, another $1 dream on Friday, and another $2 dream on Saturday. Total cost for the week $6 for four Dreams. You already know the odds against winning something so you sure can't classify that type of wagering as gambling.

                              The yearly cost is $312 for 208 dreams. If you want to dream, play PB and/or MM, if you want to gamble, learn how to play poker.