Milwaukee, WI United States Member #127873 May 11, 2012 1 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 11:04 am - IP Logged

Attention: Check local Milwaukee Journal in the next few weeks for a Class Action lawsuit against the Wisconsin Lottery for compterized fraud. The Supercash odds may say 1:1,621,213 but I have 1:129,844,092,338 the Wisconsin lottery is 100% unfixed

u$a United States Member #106665 February 22, 2011 19794 Posts Online

Posted: May 11, 2012, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by DeltaTom on May 11, 2012

Attention: Check local Milwaukee Journal in the next few weeks for a Class Action lawsuit against the Wisconsin Lottery for compterized fraud. The Supercash odds may say 1:1,621,213 but I have 1:129,844,092,338 the Wisconsin lottery is 100% unfixed

United States Member #124616 March 16, 2012 2642 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by DeltaTom on May 11, 2012

Attention: Check local Milwaukee Journal in the next few weeks for a Class Action lawsuit against the Wisconsin Lottery for compterized fraud. The Supercash odds may say 1:1,621,213 but I have 1:129,844,092,338 the Wisconsin lottery is 100% unfixed

Welcome to LP DeltaTom. That should be an interesting article... both for the Lottery portion and for info on the class action (lawyers and players!)

Wisconsin United States Member #123290 February 17, 2012 3050 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by DeltaTom on May 11, 2012

Attention: Check local Milwaukee Journal in the next few weeks for a Class Action lawsuit against the Wisconsin Lottery for compterized fraud. The Supercash odds may say 1:1,621,213 but I have 1:129,844,092,338 the Wisconsin lottery is 100% unfixed

upstate NY United States Member #108791 March 31, 2011 549 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by DeltaTom on May 11, 2012

Attention: Check local Milwaukee Journal in the next few weeks for a Class Action lawsuit against the Wisconsin Lottery for compterized fraud. The Supercash odds may say 1:1,621,213 but I have 1:129,844,092,338 the Wisconsin lottery is 100% unfixed

1.) You're dyslexic. The odds are 1 in 1,631,312, not 1 in 1,621,213.

2.) Your math is wrong. Lottery odds are calculated by the number of possible combinations, not permutations or anything else. Wisconsin's SuperCash game is a 6/39, so there are 3,262,623 different 6-number combinations you can pick using the numbers 1 to 39. The 1:1,631,312 odds come from the fact that your $1 gets you two plays. (3,262,623 divided by 2, rounded to the nearest whole number, is 1,631,312.)

3.) Speaking of math, how did you arrive at your number?

New Jersey United States Member #1 May 31, 2000 23262 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 1:51 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on May 11, 2012

1.) You're dyslexic. The odds are 1 in 1,631,312, not 1 in 1,621,213.

2.) Your math is wrong. Lottery odds are calculated by the number of possible combinations, not permutations or anything else. Wisconsin's SuperCash game is a 6/39, so there are 3,262,623 different 6-number combinations you can pick using the numbers 1 to 39. The 1:1,631,312 odds come from the fact that your $1 gets you two plays. (3,262,623 divided by 2, rounded to the nearest whole number, is 1,631,312.)

3.) Speaking of math, how did you arrive at your number?

I remember getting a note recently from someone who said they were trying to calculate lottery odds that included all the drawings that nobody hits, up until someone finally hits. I tried to explain that the odds don't work that way, and that the concept of odds spread across multiple drawings is something he fabricated out of thin air.

I have no idea if this is the same person that I responded to, but it sure sounds like it.

His concept is like saying that if I flip a coin 5 times and it only comes up heads once, that the odds have suddenly changed for coin flips from 1 in 2 to 1 in 5. The whole idea is utter nonsense.

It bothers me when someone tries to take a strictly mathematical concept like odds and convince themselves that they can change it based on some kind of deductive reasoning.

I remember getting a note recently from someone who said they were trying to calculate lottery odds that included all the drawings that nobody hits, up until someone finally hits. I tried to explain that the odds don't work that way, and that the concept of odds spread across multiple drawings is something he fabricated out of thin air.

I have no idea if this is the same person that I responded to, but it sure sounds like it.

His concept is like saying that if I flip a coin 5 times and it only comes up heads once, that the odds have suddenly changed for coin flips from 1 in 2 to 1 in 5. The whole idea is utter nonsense.

It bothers me when someone tries to take a strictly mathematical concept like odds and convince themselves that they can change it based on some kind of deductive reasoning.

At roulette you can play the simple chances, red black, odd even, manque passe. One of the best known games is betting the opposite of what has been drawn. Say that you had 5 times red, you might start betting a progression on black. The odds for black are 18/37. It is evident that the chances of getting black sooner or later is growing. The same goes for coin flipping. It is also true that for 10000 coin flips one possible permutation of outcomes is that you flip only heads.

The chance for a repetition in coin flips is 1/2 in a keno game (20/70), that chance is 2/7, with 2/7*20. So the average count of repetition will be around 6 numbers. There are extremes like just 3 repetitions only to 15 repetitions. Of course it is possible that all 20 repeat!

In extrapolation for Keno 20/70, average you will have: repeat = skip 0, chance = 20, repeat avg 20*(20/70)^1 skip 1, 20*(20/70)^2 skip 2, 20*(20/70)^3 and so on. I checked if this theory is correct, and by totals in Belgium this is correct. This is also plus minus correct for all the lotteries that I checked. By number the distribution is different. On long term the frequency is plus minus the same.

New Jersey United States Member #1 May 31, 2000 23262 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on May 11, 2012

At roulette you can play the simple chances, red black, odd even, manque passe. One of the best known games is betting the opposite of what has been drawn. Say that you had 5 times red, you might start betting a progression on black. The odds for black are 18/37. It is evident that the chances of getting black sooner or later is growing. The same goes for coin flipping. It is also true that for 10000 coin flips one possible permutation of outcomes is that you flip only heads.

The chance for a repetition in coin flips is 1/2 in a keno game (20/70), that chance is 2/7, with 2/7*20. So the average count of repetition will be around 6 numbers. There are extremes like just 3 repetitions only to 15 repetitions. Of course it is possible that all 20 repeat!

In extrapolation for Keno 20/70, average you will have: repeat = skip 0, chance = 20, repeat avg 20*(20/70)^1 skip 1, 20*(20/70)^2 skip 2, 20*(20/70)^3 and so on. I checked if this theory is correct, and by totals in Belgium this is correct. This is also plus minus correct for all the lotteries that I checked. By number the distribution is different. On long term the frequency is plus minus the same.

Honestly, you're investigating and answering questions that are not being asked.

When someone asks the odds of winning a particular lottery drawing, you do not say, "Well, typically someone hits an average of every 10 drawings, so the odds are 1 in 10 trillion." That is incorrect, and anyone using that logic to explain odds does not understand odds.

I'm not going to get sucked into another discussion about "what is the odds of so-and-so", because such discussions always devolve into people applying non-mathematical feelings into an odds discussion.

The odds of getting heads in a coin flip are 1 in 2, no matter how many times you flip a coin, or no matter how many times heads comes up.

The guy I was talking about lacks understanding of odds. He thinks that because nobody hits for 10 or 20 drawings, that suddenly the odds are much worse.

What he fails to consider is that the number of tickets sold in a lottery drawing does not come close to covering all the available combinations, so the odds are pretty good that nobody will hit in a particular drawing. That does not mean that the odds of winning in that drawing are suddenly much worse, it means that the odds of winning are exactly what they were to start with, and a different set of odds predicts that there probably won't be a winner.

Note that if you are going to start calculating skips and stuff like that, then you are off topic — calculating odds of something that has nothing to do with your odds of winning in a particular drawing.

Honestly, you're investigating and answering questions that are not being asked.

When someone asks the odds of winning a particular lottery drawing, you do not say, "Well, typically someone hits an average of every 10 drawings, so the odds are 1 in 10 trillion." That is incorrect, and anyone using that logic to explain odds does not understand odds.

I'm not going to get sucked into another discussion about "what is the odds of so-and-so", because such discussions always devolve into people applying non-mathematical feelings into an odds discussion.

The odds of getting heads in a coin flip are 1 in 2, no matter how many times you flip a coin, or no matter how many times heads comes up.

The guy I was talking about lacks understanding of odds. He thinks that because nobody hits for 10 or 20 drawings, that suddenly the odds are much worse.

What he fails to consider is that the number of tickets sold in a lottery drawing does not come close to covering all the available combinations, so the odds are pretty good that nobody will hit in a particular drawing. That does not mean that the odds of winning in that drawing are suddenly much worse, it means that the odds of winning are exactly what they were to start with, and a different set of odds predicts that there probably won't be a winner.

Note that if you are going to start calculating skips and stuff like that, then you are off topic — calculating odds of something that has nothing to do with your odds of winning in a particular drawing.

I went binomial with the odds.

Maybe you should write a page explaining the mathematics (Laplace ... ).

United States Member #116268 September 7, 2011 20244 Posts Offline

Posted: May 11, 2012, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on May 11, 2012

1.) You're dyslexic. The odds are 1 in 1,631,312, not 1 in 1,621,213.

2.) Your math is wrong. Lottery odds are calculated by the number of possible combinations, not permutations or anything else. Wisconsin's SuperCash game is a 6/39, so there are 3,262,623 different 6-number combinations you can pick using the numbers 1 to 39. The 1:1,631,312 odds come from the fact that your $1 gets you two plays. (3,262,623 divided by 2, rounded to the nearest whole number, is 1,631,312.)

3.) Speaking of math, how did you arrive at your number?

I like the "You're dyslexic" explanation the best.