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Jersey pic6

Topic closed. 59 replies. Last post 4 years ago by haymaker.

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CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
Whiskey Island
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Posted: June 14, 2012, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

Next 4 Draws :

1-12-28-29-42-46

11-23-33-35-46-48

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
    New Jersey
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    Posted: June 15, 2012, 11:26 am - IP Logged

    I'm estimating the Expected Value of each one dollar ticket to be around 71.65 cents.  (Based on your taking the cash value, being taxed at a rate of 35% by the Federal Government, 10.8% by NJ and an 8% chance of sharing the Jackpot on the win.)  I did not factor in taxes to the second prize, since it would affect different people differently and because doing so would only be worth a couple of cents.

      haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
      Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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      Posted: June 16, 2012, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

      I'm estimating the Expected Value of each one dollar ticket to be around 71.65 cents.  (Based on your taking the cash value, being taxed at a rate of 35% by the Federal Government, 10.8% by NJ and an 8% chance of sharing the Jackpot on the win.)  I did not factor in taxes to the second prize, since it would affect different people differently and because doing so would only be worth a couple of cents.

      What exactly is expected value ?

      And how do you figure it,

      is there a formula ?

      Thanks.

      Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

        haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
        Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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        Posted: June 17, 2012, 4:40 pm - IP Logged

        Next 4 Draws :

        1-12-28-29-42-46

        11-23-33-35-46-48

        Cajunwin4,

        thanks for the stars,

        #s too.

        Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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          Posted: June 17, 2012, 4:50 pm - IP Logged

          Expected Value is the average return based on odds and prizes.  There isn't really a set formula (it can be calculated for a wide variety of games), but it's fairly simple to calculate, if you know all of the variables (I don't, so I had to estimate).  This was the excel spreadsheet I used.  The first column is the expected prize, the second is the odds of winning it and the third is the product of the two.  As you can see, I had $7,828,648 as the expected Jackpot win.  This is because I used the cash option, assumed 45.8% taxes and an 8 percent chance of splitting the jackpot if you won.  Those were the variables I guessed on.

           

          The last column, is where I got .716546 is the expected return.  It is the sum of the 4 coumns on the right.  I assumed no taxes on a second prize win, which isn't realistic, but everyone would be paying a different rate of taxes on it.  And it's only worth about .05 cents on average per dollar, so reducing it for taxes would likely only cost about a percent.

           

          One of the problems with lotteries is that they pretty much never get above an expected value of one. When the Jackpots rise, more people buy tickets, making it much more likely that you'd have to split the JP anyway.

           I realise this isn't going to post properly, and IDK how to format it.  The first row (downwards) should read "7828648," "2700," "56," and "3"

          7,828,6487.15112E-080.559836
          27001.84498E-050.049815
          560.0009689920.054264
          30.017543860.052632
          0.716546

           

          A game like Roulette has a much simpler and precise calculation.  1-(2/38)=0.947368.

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: June 17, 2012, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

            Putting it simply, Expected Value is the average return.

             

            Or even simpler it is 1 minus the house edge.

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: June 17, 2012, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

              Upon doing a little math, I found that there were about 3.5 million ticket sales.  This means that I significantly underestimated the odds of sharing the JP.  Assuming around a 20% chance of sharing, the EV would for the next draw is about 64.35 cents on the dollar.

                CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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                Posted: June 17, 2012, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                Cajunwin4,

                thanks for the stars,

                #s too.

                You're Welcome , haymaker

                                                           We need to have a Jackpot win in Jersey from some Predictions here . I hope you get it soon !!!

                                                                                                                                                                                          CW4

                  haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                  Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                  Posted: June 18, 2012, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

                  Upon doing a little math, I found that there were about 3.5 million ticket sales.  This means that I significantly underestimated the odds of sharing the JP.  Assuming around a 20% chance of sharing, the EV would for the next draw is about 64.35 cents on the dollar.

                  OK, i thought i could use this to determine when i should skip draws,

                  but if a growing JP increases the EV and more tickets sold drags it down then i guess i should just go by the size of the JP.

                  thanks again.

                  Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                    haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                    Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                    Posted: June 18, 2012, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

                    result,

                     10-21-26-28 37-49

                    Cajun, 1st two are reverse, or is that called mirror ?

                    26 & 28 good, 49 close one .

                    Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                      haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                      Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                      Posted: June 18, 2012, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

                      You're Welcome , haymaker

                                                                 We need to have a Jackpot win in Jersey from some Predictions here . I hope you get it soon !!!

                                                                                                                                                                                                CW4

                      Cajunwin4,

                       thanks for that,

                       

                      somehow got the impression you were in NY.

                      Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                        CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
                        Whiskey Island
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                        Posted: June 18, 2012, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

                        Cajunwin4,

                         thanks for that,

                         

                        somehow got the impression you were in NY.

                        I'm here just to Prove to my self that my system does WORK on all game formats ..

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: June 18, 2012, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

                          OK, i thought i could use this to determine when i should skip draws,

                          but if a growing JP increases the EV and more tickets sold drags it down then i guess i should just go by the size of the JP.

                          thanks again.

                          I've noticed the best EV you can get will come from a high jackpot relative to odds, but a much larger jackpot elsewhere (Mega Millions/Powerball.  I'd think more on the MM side.)  More people spend their money on the big games, for a chance to win 100s of millions, and so the EV goes up.

                           

                          Go mostly by Jackpot size, but ticket sales has a dramatic affect on EV.  That's why the record breaking mega millions draw only had an EV of about 67 cents on the dollar.  Growing jackpots can be offset by "Jackpot Frenzy".

                           

                          Pick 6, however, is state run and won't get something crazy like 8 or 12 million sales, so most of the time it's not a huge affect.  But if you are saving your money for the "best" time to play, I'd wait for two coniditions

                           

                          1) Big Jackpot

                          2) There's a much bigger jackpot in Mega Millions and/or Powerball, to keep sales down.

                            CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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                            Posted: June 18, 2012, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

                            Next 4 Draws :  Starting 06/21/12  Thu.

                            5-11-27-33-34-35

                            5-27-33-34-35-43

                            5-33-34-35-43-46

                            5-34-35-43-46-48

                            11-23-33-34-35-43

                            11-33-34-35-43-46

                            11-34-35-43-46-48

                            27-33-34-35-43-46

                            27-34-35-43-46-48

                            33-34-35-43-46-48

                              haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
                              Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
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                              Posted: June 18, 2012, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

                              I've noticed the best EV you can get will come from a high jackpot relative to odds, but a much larger jackpot elsewhere (Mega Millions/Powerball.  I'd think more on the MM side.)  More people spend their money on the big games, for a chance to win 100s of millions, and so the EV goes up.

                               

                              Go mostly by Jackpot size, but ticket sales has a dramatic affect on EV.  That's why the record breaking mega millions draw only had an EV of about 67 cents on the dollar.  Growing jackpots can be offset by "Jackpot Frenzy".

                               

                              Pick 6, however, is state run and won't get something crazy like 8 or 12 million sales, so most of the time it's not a huge affect.  But if you are saving your money for the "best" time to play, I'd wait for two coniditions

                               

                              1) Big Jackpot

                              2) There's a much bigger jackpot in Mega Millions and/or Powerball, to keep sales down.

                              Thinking your #2 condition is what has made this PIC6 grow slow,

                              lot of big JPs in the 6 mos. since this hit for $3.5 mils.

                              Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.