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Odds on Odds

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Ronnie316.

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Winning makes me smile.
bel air maryland
United States
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April 24, 2010
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

The thing I gotta remind myself is this.Never try and guess where the ball is gonna go.Puck ur numbers based in where u wanna go and what looks like it could win trust me.I just learned this this very second it's best advice trust me.Good luck

That's why you track everything and study the game. You want to put the odds and percentages in your favor. If you're

going to guess you might as well just play quick picks and hope for luck.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

United States
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September 7, 2011
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

That's why you track everything and study the game. You want to put the odds and percentages in your favor. If you're

going to guess you might as well just play quick picks and hope for luck.

YES, and good luck putting 175 million to 1 odds in your favor too.

Winning makes me smile.
bel air maryland
United States
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April 24, 2010
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

YES, and good luck putting 175 million to 1 odds in your favor too.

I don't study the jackpot games and rarely play them. Because the odds are so much against you. But some one has to

win so it is usually luck. Now the pick 3 and pick 4 is a different story.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

cornwall,ct
United States
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December 23, 2010
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

It's the truth on what lotteries do.Why are u mad at the truth it hurts?Is this why ur mad and can't accept it?Or cause u can't post anything that makes sense like this post?Remember being in ur own skin isn't prison unless u let it Peace

Dude dont try and reson with some of these guys.they are too gulible and saying to them that the lottey is fixed is like saying obama will get re-elected.it just starts a never ending flame war.of course its fixed.conservatives wouldnt beleive you if you told them that a pond was tainted even if it had a ten dead deer in it with flys swirling about.they still would have to take a sip.

Kyokushin karate a.k.a.

" The strongest Karate"

Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
United States
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June 29, 2011
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 9:07 pm - IP Logged

I don't study the jackpot games and rarely play them. Because the odds are so much against you. But some one has to

win so it is usually luck. Now the pick 3 and pick 4 is a different story.

"Some one has to win"

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

New Jersey
United States
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October 18, 2010
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 Posted: May 28, 2012, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

For the people slow processin here's an example.Lebron James just made 2half court shots.Then he turns to me and asks if I wanna bet on the third shot.I bet my house on it cause the odds are slimmer even for him.

This type of reasoning will lead to ruin.

If all the information I have (since I don't watch basketball, or let's just say in this hypothetical, have never watched or heard of Lebron James) is that he just did it twice in a row, I'd say that, at least from my perspective, I'd think it's MORE likely to be able to do it a third time.  That's because he's shown the ability to do it twice.  Had I seen him try 200 times and only make 80 or 90, then I'd take the bet, because the sample demonstrates that he has less than 50% odds.

Plus, you should probably never "bet the house" even if you have great odds.  If you have a coin flip, that someone was willing to pay you 3 for 1 on, would you take that bet for 100 dollars?  I would.  But would I bet my car on it? (since I don't own a house)  NO!  Because if I lost, I wouldn't have a car to drive.

The point in all this is that first of all, you absolutely are not playing at an advantage on most lottery play.  I've actually only found the oppurtunity to play the lottery two times at a mathemetical advantage, during promotions, but did not win either of those days.  Either way - it is important for an advantage player to scale his bets according to what the advantage and variance of a bet are.  That is how advantagous is it, how risky is it, and how much am I willing to lose on the project if I'm unlucky.

I do have a feeling, though, that this will all go over your head, so now I feel like I just wasted my time.

NY
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 12:19 am - IP Logged

Ok I came to the conclusion that the lottery isn't fixed.Instead I figured out how the balls avoid us most of the time to the lotterys advantage.Ok before every live drawing the lottery must have test runs correct?I don't see how they couldn't so this is a fact.In let's say they do test runs up until the match a winner that's in the system.lets say they do test runs until they match 2 winning drawings in the system.Now they are ready to go live after the 2 winning test run drawings.Now what's the odds of the live drawing producing a winner.Odds on Odds people

Let's imagine they do 1000 test runs and every single one matches a set of numbers that was played.  When they do the live drawing the odds of producing a winner are exactly what they would have been if there hadn't been any tests, or if they had done 1000 tests without matching even one set of numbers that had been played.

The odds of producing a winner are 100% if the numbers drawn are 1,2,3,4,5+6, match a straight-line pattern on the bet slip and a few other commonly played combinations. The odds of producing a winner are a bit better for calendar numbers than non-calendar numbers. Other than that the odds of producing a winner are determined by the odds of the game and the number of tickets that were played.

And here's a real fact for you. When lotteries conduct test drawings they conduct a specific number of test drawings that are determined by the rules.

NY
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 12:20 am - IP Logged

You must be insane. What type of medication do you take on a daily basis??

The lottery gives out a set amount of money for a JP or rolls it over.

It make no difference to the lottery if 0 or 10 people share.

Its all the same to them regardless of who wins.

There is no REASON for them to cheat.

They keep most of the money.

That's what they do.

Paramutual.

You bet.

snip

"It make no difference to the lottery if 0 or 10 people share."

Not that I think there's any chance that lotteries are deliberately manipulated, except perhaps on extremely rare occsasions, but that's not quite true. Probability guarantees that in the long run the lottery will keep whatever percentage the game is designed to keep, but 50% of \$50 million is 5 times as much as 50% of \$10 million. The people who run lotteries are always hoping they don't produce a jackpot winner.

in the long run, keep whatever percentage of

upstate NY
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 3:15 am - IP Logged

It's funny how most people who claim the lottery is fixed talk and type like they're stoned.  Coincidence?  Probably not.

Appleton, Wi
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

If you calculate the distance from New York to California in inches you get an equivalent of MM/PB Jackpot Lottery odds: 175,000,000 to 1. At every inch is a lottery ticket with a different number on it. You have to pick the inch where the lucky ticket is located. Don't forget to pay the Toll Master \$1.00 (MM) or \$2.00 (PB) for every pick.

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May 25, 2011
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

If you calculate the distance from New York to California in inches you get an equivalent of MM/PB Jackpot Lottery odds: 175,000,000 to 1. At every inch is a lottery ticket with a different number on it. You have to pick the inch where the lucky ticket is located. Don't forget to pay the Toll Master \$1.00 (MM) or \$2.00 (PB) for every pick.

Very clever analogy BlueDuck!       I have that inch already picked out, for 2-nite's MM drawing. My toll has been payed in full.

United States
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 4:48 pm - IP Logged

"It make no difference to the lottery if 0 or 10 people share."

Not that I think there's any chance that lotteries are deliberately manipulated, except perhaps on extremely rare occsasions, but that's not quite true. Probability guarantees that in the long run the lottery will keep whatever percentage the game is designed to keep, but 50% of \$50 million is 5 times as much as 50% of \$10 million. The people who run lotteries are always hoping they don't produce a jackpot winner.

in the long run, keep whatever percentage of

Ok, so how exactly do they profit from the JP roll over??

They could have the money in an interest bearing account and get a few bucks from that, but other than that I just don't see it.

Whiskey Island
United States
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April 24, 2010
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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

Ok I came to the conclusion that the lottery isn't fixed.Instead I figured out how the balls avoid us most of the time to the lotterys advantage.Ok before every live drawing the lottery must have test runs correct?I don't see how they couldn't so this is a fact.In let's say they do test runs up until the match a winner that's in the system.lets say they do test runs until they match 2 winning drawings in the system.Now they are ready to go live after the 2 winning test run drawings.Now what's the odds of the live drawing producing a winner.Odds on Odds people

This Forum Discussion is beating a dead horse with a stick !!!!!

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 Posted: May 29, 2012, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

This Forum Discussion is beating a dead horse with a stick !!!!!

Poor horsie.

NY
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: May 31, 2012, 12:31 am - IP Logged

Ok, so how exactly do they profit from the JP roll over??

They could have the money in an interest bearing account and get a few bucks from that, but other than that I just don't see it.

You know they sell more tickets for big jackpots, right? 50% of \$50 million is 5 times as much as 50% of \$10 million.

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