What are the chances of ever winning the 2nd place prize for PB or MM?Prev TopicNext Topic

• KY Floyd

  

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  Jun 15, 2012, 12:33 am

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jun 14, 2012

  I didn't say the odds on the charts were INCORRECT, I said "who knows how they figure them".

  "The odds of matching the five white balls ONLY are 5,153,633 to 1, because you have to multiply the total number of white ball combinations by 35/34, as the odds of NOT hitting the bonus ball are 34/35."

  If you multiple 5,006,386 (the number of combos in a 5/59 matrix) by "35/34" you get 5,153,633. That I understand, but how do they get the figure 1 in 55?

  They figure the odds using the only formula there is for calculating the number of combinations.

  They get the 1 in 55 figure by multiplying the chance of getting the power ball (1/35) by the chance of matching 0 of 59. The latter is 1-(chance of matching 5)-(chance of matching 4)-(chance of matching 3)-(chance of matching 2)-(chance of matching 1), which is about 1/1.6.
• Stack47

  

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  Jun 15, 2012, 10:45 am

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  In response to KY Floyd

  Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jun 15, 2012

  They figure the odds using the only formula there is for calculating the number of combinations.

  They get the 1 in 55 figure by multiplying the chance of getting the power ball (1/35) by the chance of matching 0 of 59. The latter is 1-(chance of matching 5)-(chance of matching 4)-(chance of matching 3)-(chance of matching 2)-(chance of matching 1), which is about 1/1.6.

  "They get the 1 in 55 figure by multiplying the chance of getting the power ball (1/35) by the chance of matching 0 of 59."

  Oh I see, you're saying if I multiple 1/35 (0.02587) by 3,162,510 (a 5/54 matrix), I'll get 55?

  Odds are usually calculated by making a ratio of the overall chances (175,223,510) to the losing chances (3,162,510) and reduce it to the lowest common denominator; 55.4 to 1.
• Stack47

  

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  Jun 15, 2012, 10:59 am

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  In response to RJOh

  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jun 15, 2012

  I didn't say the odds on the charts were INCORRECT, I said "who knows how they figure them".

  Actuall the odds are calculated the only way that makes sense. 

  First, the total number of possible combinations is calculated, then the number of winning combinations for each level are calculated and to get the odds of winning at each level, the numbers of winning combinations at each level are divided by the number of possible combinations.

  
   possible combos of 5/59 + 1/35 numbers = 175223510
   MATCH    ODDS            WINNING COMBOS  ODDS 1 CHANCES
   5/5+B   1 : 175223510      1              1 : 175223510
   5/5+0   1 : 5153633        34             1 : 5153633
   4/5+B   1 : 648976         270            1 : 648976
   4/5+0   1 : 19088          9180           1 : 19088
   3/5+B   1 : 12245          14310          1 : 12245
   3/5+0   1 : 360            486540         1 : 360
   2/5+B   1 : 706            248040         1 : 706
   1/5+B   1 : 111            1581255        1 : 111
   0/5+B   1 : 55             3162510        1 : 55
   ____________________________________________________________
   overall odds 1 : 31.8             

  Yep, I figured it out last night when I was trying to calculate the odds of not one of three referees seeing LeBron James fouling Kevin Durant at least four times when Durant was trying to make the game tying shot.

  "the numbers of winning combinations at each level are divided by the number of possible combinations."

  Shouldn't that be the number of possible combos divided by the combos in each level?

  34 divided by 175 million does not equal 5,153,633.
• maximumfun

  

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  Jun 15, 2012, 12:35 pm

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  What are the CHANCES of ever winning the 2nd place prize?  the same as my CHANCES of winning 1st place.  but my ODDS are better to win a 2nd place prize.