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Quick Picks verus Self Picks

Topic closed. 85 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Original Bey.

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Do you think the lottery should charge more for QPs?

Yes [ 2 ]  [4.35%]
Hell Yeah [ 2 ]  [4.35%]
No [ 19 ]  [41.30%]
Hell No [ 21 ]  [45.65%]
Undecided [ 1 ]  [2.17%]
Other [ 1 ]  [2.17%]
Total Valid Votes [ 46 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 2 ]  
msharkey2001's avatar - Trek startrek.gif
New Hampshire
United States
Member #136492
December 12, 2012
326 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 12, 2012, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

In my experience self picks are better, at least vs published overall odds. I have been tracking my results in the smaller state/regional games such as Hot Lotto, Lucky for Life (New England), and Tri State Megabucks Plus(ME, NH, VT) since the beginning of this year and have won more often than odds would indicate in all of them. Hot Lotto I'm winning any prize at a 1 in 12.5 rate vs 1 in 16 overall odds, 1 in 5.4 vs 6.6 odds in L4L, and 1 in 4.7 vs 5.9 for Tri State Megabucks Plus. I play a combination of 10 lines per week for these 3 games so I think my sample size is valid. Granted I've yet to win a jackpot, or even a second or third tier prize in any of these, I've none the less been close on various occassions and have hit 3 of 5 plus the bonus ball in these 3 games a total of 4 times this year. Considering I've played a total of about 500 lines (10 x 50 weeks so far in 2012) I have hit this prize level way more than the odds would indicate that I should.

 

I haven't tracked my results in the big games like PB and MM as I only play these when the JP gets over 200M but I plan on doing so in 2013 and using the same tactics for these games as I do for the smaller state/regional games.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19903 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 12, 2012, 2:03 pm - IP Logged

    In my experience self picks are better, at least vs published overall odds. I have been tracking my results in the smaller state/regional games such as Hot Lotto, Lucky for Life (New England), and Tri State Megabucks Plus(ME, NH, VT) since the beginning of this year and have won more often than odds would indicate in all of them. Hot Lotto I'm winning any prize at a 1 in 12.5 rate vs 1 in 16 overall odds, 1 in 5.4 vs 6.6 odds in L4L, and 1 in 4.7 vs 5.9 for Tri State Megabucks Plus. I play a combination of 10 lines per week for these 3 games so I think my sample size is valid. Granted I've yet to win a jackpot, or even a second or third tier prize in any of these, I've none the less been close on various occassions and have hit 3 of 5 plus the bonus ball in these 3 games a total of 4 times this year. Considering I've played a total of about 500 lines (10 x 50 weeks so far in 2012) I have hit this prize level way more than the odds would indicate that I should.

     

    I haven't tracked my results in the big games like PB and MM as I only play these when the JP gets over 200M but I plan on doing so in 2013 and using the same tactics for these games as I do for the smaller state/regional games.

    All self picks are not equal.  Some players pick combinations using information from past drawings to predict which numbers are more likely to be drawn while other use family birthdays,current events and intuitions. 

    I'm sure one way is better than the rest but I've never seen any one make a serious effort to prove it one way or the other, most just go with their gut feelings which isn't very scientific.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

      Bahamas
      Member #133462
      September 30, 2012
      5946 Posts
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      Posted: December 12, 2012, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

      All self picks are not equal.  Some players pick combinations using information from past drawings to predict which numbers are more likely to be drawn while other use family birthdays,current events and intuitions. 

      I'm sure one way is better than the rest but I've never seen any one make a serious effort to prove it one way or the other, most just go with their gut feelings which isn't very scientific.

      Thumbs Up

       

      I have read at least three stories where one family member was born on the WRONG DAY. Acutally the last one I read, the dog was to blame!

      "Everything works  ONCE!"

        haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
        Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
        United States
        Member #112968
        June 29, 2011
        3857 Posts
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        Posted: December 12, 2012, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

        Thumbs Up

         

        I have read at least three stories where one family member was born on the WRONG DAY. Acutally the last one I read, the dog was to blame!

        Dogs are never to blame !

        Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

          msharkey2001's avatar - Trek startrek.gif
          New Hampshire
          United States
          Member #136492
          December 12, 2012
          326 Posts
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          Posted: December 12, 2012, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

          I agree with you RJOh that all self picks are not created equal. I think that picking birthdays/anniversaries/ages and so forth are little better than QP's. The best way to improve your odds is to study the game and look for patterns. For example I'm currently playing Hot Lotto which is a 5/39 (19) game with a current JP of 7M. Looking at the number patterns like I have been all year there are identifiable tendencies that can be taken advantage of. A few things about the game I have learned:

          1. In any given drawing an average of 3 of the 5 numbers will have been drawn at least once within the past 5 draws. When I select numbers for the 5 lines that I play twice weekly I include 2-4 of those numbers per line.

          2. In about 3/4 of the drawings a number group will be omitted. Of my five lines per play I will omit one number group in all but 1 of my lines.

          3. Certain more frequently drawn hot (bonus) balls seem to reappear with a frequency more often then the odds would indicate. For example a frequently seen bonus ball will be drawn and then often come up again 2 or 3 drawings later. This has happened many times in 2012 so I will always include these bonus balls in one of my lines that has skipped once or twice.

           

          These tendencies are true to some degree I think for other smaller state/regional 5+1 games that have around 40 white, and 20 or fewer bonus balls. Obviously the bigger games like PB or MM are much more difficult to identify regular patterns in due to all the extra numbers. It doesn't stop me from trying however when the JP's get large.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19903 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 13, 2012, 9:33 am - IP Logged

            I agree with you RJOh that all self picks are not created equal. I think that picking birthdays/anniversaries/ages and so forth are little better than QP's. The best way to improve your odds is to study the game and look for patterns. For example I'm currently playing Hot Lotto which is a 5/39 (19) game with a current JP of 7M. Looking at the number patterns like I have been all year there are identifiable tendencies that can be taken advantage of. A few things about the game I have learned:

            1. In any given drawing an average of 3 of the 5 numbers will have been drawn at least once within the past 5 draws. When I select numbers for the 5 lines that I play twice weekly I include 2-4 of those numbers per line.

            2. In about 3/4 of the drawings a number group will be omitted. Of my five lines per play I will omit one number group in all but 1 of my lines.

            3. Certain more frequently drawn hot (bonus) balls seem to reappear with a frequency more often then the odds would indicate. For example a frequently seen bonus ball will be drawn and then often come up again 2 or 3 drawings later. This has happened many times in 2012 so I will always include these bonus balls in one of my lines that has skipped once or twice.

             

            These tendencies are true to some degree I think for other smaller state/regional 5+1 games that have around 40 white, and 20 or fewer bonus balls. Obviously the bigger games like PB or MM are much more difficult to identify regular patterns in due to all the extra numbers. It doesn't stop me from trying however when the JP's get large.

            While I might agree self picks based on studies of past drawings might have better than normal odds of winning, I think the odds of self picks based on random events winning are no better than quick picks.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


              United States
              Member #116268
              September 7, 2011
              20244 Posts
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              Posted: December 13, 2012, 10:05 am - IP Logged

              While I might agree self picks based on studies of past drawings might have better than normal odds of winning, I think the odds of self picks based on random events winning are no better than quick picks.

              A self pick player has choices and can use the power of prediction, QP players are lazy and have neither.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19903 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 13, 2012, 1:50 pm - IP Logged

                A self pick player has choices and can use the power of prediction, QP players are lazy and have neither.

                As far as I know, the jury still out on the power of predictions.  No one has proved anything either way.

                All players have the same choices including "not playing at all", but every dollar spent on lottery tickets is earned by someone's work  which doesn't support the notion that QP players are lazy.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                  u$a
                  United States
                  Member #106665
                  February 22, 2011
                  19967 Posts
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                  Posted: December 17, 2012, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                  Both White Bounce

                  Patriot

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
                    Member #30470
                    January 17, 2006
                    10392 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 6, 2013, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

                    A self pick player has choices and can use the power of prediction, QP players are lazy and have neither.

                    Statistically then 70% to 80% of the jackpots go to the 'lazy'.

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

                      Bahamas
                      Member #133462
                      September 30, 2012
                      5946 Posts
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                      Posted: January 6, 2013, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

                      Dogs are never to blame !

                      I Agree!

                      "Everything works  ONCE!"