New Jersey United States
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September 4, 2005
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...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.
Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.
(The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)
It's predictable. The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.
Marquette, MI United States
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August 20, 2005
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Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Jan 30, 2013
...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.
Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.
(The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)
It's predictable. The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.
Well, look at how much money you are saving while not playing! Set it aside and play it when the jackpot gets up there.
mid-Ohio United States
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March 24, 2001
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Now that PB is getting in that $100M territory, MM players who don't like paying $2 per line will give in and start playing PB until MM jackpot gets a little bigger.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
New Hampshire United States
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December 12, 2012
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Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Jan 30, 2013
...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.
Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.
(The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)
It's predictable. The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.
I'd be willing to bet your typical big game jackpot player either doesn't know or care about expectation value. More people are forking over money for powerball because the prizes are bigger and the overall odds are better, simple as that.
I would personally spend $10 for 5 PB lines before I would spend $10 for 10 MM lines any day. I think MM is gonna have to consider some sort of matrix change and or megaplier revamp soon if it wants to remain competitive with PB, especially with players that have a little more disposable income to spend on lottery.
If I was to redesign the game I would bump the cost up to $2 while in turn removing a few megaballs, getting rid of megaplier and offering a guaranteed prize multiplier for an extra buck (not this pick a number from 2-4 and then hope that multiplier ball gets drawn), and add a new prize tier where you can win $3 or $4 simply for matching 2 white balls. Raising the minimum jackpot closer to something resembling the PB minimum would also go a long way to boosting ticket sales.
Many of the 5+1 games are already charging $2 per basic play now anyways. MM could justify an increase of their own much as PB did by making the game more exciting and easier to win some sort of prize.
New Jersey United States
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Quote: Originally posted by msharkey2001 on Feb 25, 2013
I'd be willing to bet your typical big game jackpot player either doesn't know or care about expectation value. More people are forking over money for powerball because the prizes are bigger and the overall odds are better, simple as that.
I would personally spend $10 for 5 PB lines before I would spend $10 for 10 MM lines any day. I think MM is gonna have to consider some sort of matrix change and or megaplier revamp soon if it wants to remain competitive with PB, especially with players that have a little more disposable income to spend on lottery.
If I was to redesign the game I would bump the cost up to $2 while in turn removing a few megaballs, getting rid of megaplier and offering a guaranteed prize multiplier for an extra buck (not this pick a number from 2-4 and then hope that multiplier ball gets drawn), and add a new prize tier where you can win $3 or $4 simply for matching 2 white balls. Raising the minimum jackpot closer to something resembling the PB minimum would also go a long way to boosting ticket sales.
Many of the 5+1 games are already charging $2 per basic play now anyways. MM could justify an increase of their own much as PB did by making the game more exciting and easier to win some sort of prize.
Your first sentences in each of your first two paragraphs confirm the last sentence my my original post.
Thanks for that.
Your second sentence is pretty much nonsense. Expectation values are a truer measure of the relative value of bets, than absolute odds.
In fact, not only is the current MM a better buy, but the actual nearly astronomical odds for both games are relatively close.