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It now appears certain that Megamillions will go 6 months...

Topic closed. 29 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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Posted: January 30, 2013, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.

Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.

(The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)

It's predictable.   The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.


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    Posted: February 4, 2013, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

    Mega millions is too easy to win, that's what it is.


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      Posted: February 4, 2013, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

      Mega millions is too easy to win, that's what it is.

      I Agree!LOLGoof

        dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
        Oklahoma
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        Posted: February 5, 2013, 9:05 am - IP Logged

        Mega millions is too easy to win, that's what it is.

        Green laugh

        I Love Pink & Green 1908


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          Posted: February 5, 2013, 9:09 am - IP Logged

          Green laugh

          I'm sure people who spend $10. and win think, "What was so hard about that?" lol.

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            Morrison, IL
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            Posted: February 6, 2013, 7:55 am - IP Logged

            Once again, Mega Millions was hit last night, and the jackpot was only $19 million.

            ---


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              Posted: February 6, 2013, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

              And the winners in Michigan are laughing all the way to the bank & thinking "That was just too darn easy!"

                mightwin's avatar - questns

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                Posted: February 15, 2013, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                Look at all those powerball wins in december.........I was gettin pissed lol

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                  Japan
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                  Posted: February 15, 2013, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

                  Look at all those powerball wins in december.........I was gettin pissed lol

                  Yes Nod

                   

                  'cept in if it was you you'd be laughin to the bank there....

                    Either way it was strange seeing the Powerball break it's record an then have it won at the 50Million level for that long Troll

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                    San Diego, CA
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                    Posted: February 20, 2013, 9:09 pm - IP Logged

                    Another winner last night @19 million.

                      dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
                      Oklahoma
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                      Posted: February 23, 2013, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

                      I will be the first Mega jackpot winner from Oklahoma no matter the size of the jackpot Wink

                      I Love Pink & Green 1908

                        Think's avatar - lightbulb
                        Marquette, MI
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                        Posted: February 25, 2013, 10:44 am - IP Logged

                        ...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.

                        Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.

                        (The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)

                        It's predictable.   The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.

                        Well, look at how much money you are saving while not playing!  Set it aside and play it when the jackpot gets up there.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: February 25, 2013, 10:54 am - IP Logged

                          Now that PB is getting in that $100M territory, MM players who don't like paying $2 per line will give in and start playing PB until MM jackpot gets a little bigger.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            msharkey2001's avatar - Trek startrek.gif
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                            Posted: February 25, 2013, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

                            ...without producing a single jackpot over $100M annuity.

                            Megamillion sales are down, probably mostly because people are foolishly forking over money for Powerball, even though it's half the value of Megamillions when one accounts for the expectation value.

                            (The last giant Powerball jackpot showed pretty much that it is impossible for Powerball to produce a jackpot with an expectation value greater than one, something that Megamillions has done many times.)

                            It's predictable.   The lottery assumes that most people are fools, and it's a pretty good bet.

                            I'd be willing to bet your typical big game jackpot player either doesn't know or care about expectation value. More people are forking over money for powerball because the prizes are bigger and the overall odds are better, simple as that.

                             

                            I would personally spend $10 for 5 PB lines before I would spend $10 for 10 MM lines any day. I think MM is gonna have to consider some sort of matrix change and or megaplier revamp soon if it wants to remain competitive with PB, especially with players that have a little more disposable income to spend on lottery.

                             

                            If I was to redesign the game I would bump the cost up to $2 while in turn removing a few megaballs, getting rid of megaplier and offering a guaranteed prize multiplier for an extra buck (not this pick a number from 2-4 and then hope that multiplier ball gets drawn), and add a new prize tier where you can win $3 or $4 simply for matching 2 white balls. Raising the minimum jackpot closer to something resembling the PB minimum would also go a long way to boosting ticket sales.

                             

                            Many of the 5+1 games are already charging $2 per basic play now anyways. MM could justify an increase of their own much as PB did by making the game more exciting and easier to win some sort of prize. 

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: March 2, 2013, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                              I'd be willing to bet your typical big game jackpot player either doesn't know or care about expectation value. More people are forking over money for powerball because the prizes are bigger and the overall odds are better, simple as that.

                               

                              I would personally spend $10 for 5 PB lines before I would spend $10 for 10 MM lines any day. I think MM is gonna have to consider some sort of matrix change and or megaplier revamp soon if it wants to remain competitive with PB, especially with players that have a little more disposable income to spend on lottery.

                               

                              If I was to redesign the game I would bump the cost up to $2 while in turn removing a few megaballs, getting rid of megaplier and offering a guaranteed prize multiplier for an extra buck (not this pick a number from 2-4 and then hope that multiplier ball gets drawn), and add a new prize tier where you can win $3 or $4 simply for matching 2 white balls. Raising the minimum jackpot closer to something resembling the PB minimum would also go a long way to boosting ticket sales.

                               

                              Many of the 5+1 games are already charging $2 per basic play now anyways. MM could justify an increase of their own much as PB did by making the game more exciting and easier to win some sort of prize. 

                              Your first sentences in each of your first two paragraphs confirm the last sentence my my original post.

                              Thanks for that.

                              Your second sentence is pretty much nonsense.   Expectation values are a truer measure of the relative value of bets, than absolute odds.

                              In fact, not only is the current MM a better buy, but the actual nearly astronomical odds for both games are relatively close.