Can pick 3 be beaten on the long run?Prev TopicNext Topic

• onlymoney

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  June 2, 2012
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  May 6, 2013, 10:57 pm

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  In response to littlemike

  Quote: Originally posted by littlemike on May 6, 2013

  

  Agree in which direction? lol

  Do you think it's possible, or not?

  LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds.
• helpmewin

  

  100

  u$a
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  May 7, 2013, 12:11 am

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  In response to onlymoney

  Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 6, 2013

  Agree in which direction? lol

  Do you think it's possible, or not?

  LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds.

  some people can't add  

  i'm beginning to see why Todd made this site for people

  
• rdgrnr

  

  100

  The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
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  May 7, 2013, 12:19 am

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  In response to onlymoney

  Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 6, 2013

  Agree in which direction? lol

  Do you think it's possible, or not?

  LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds.

  I believe he was agreeing with me about preferring mechanical ball machines over computers.
• SergeM

  

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  May 7, 2013, 12:45 pm

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  Mathematics says, don't play it!

  
• dr65

  

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  May 7, 2013, 11:09 pm

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  In response to noise-gate

  Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on May 4, 2013

  Are Computerized Lottery Drawings Truly Random?

  Jun 21, 2004

  Hoosier Lottery officials said the change from pingpong balls to computers was made for two reasons: reliability and cost.

  "We had used 15 (pingpong ball) machines since 1989, and they were showing wear and tear," lottery spokesman Andrew Reed said. "They would have cost at least $40,000 each to replace. Two portable computers cost about $700 each."

  And Lottery Director Jack Ross said computers are not only more reliable but also produce numbers that are even more random, since even slight differences in the weight of pingpong balls -- caused by wear, paint or other factors -- could affect the numbers chosen. The lottery's selection process is closely monitored by impartial auditors, Ross and Reed said.

   

  Oops- $ 40,000 for the Machine, not the ping pong ball.

  Reliability??...in the sense that the programming is always reliable? Balls aren't.
  Sometimes even the predraws can't escape the inevitable and you probably can't get
  away with more than 7 anyway.
  Cost??.....What does cost matter unless you're a huge organization that makes huge profits
  and need a coverup that makes it appear as if you're in the same boat as the little guy?
  Empathy and a: I feel for you aren't things I'd associate with any state lottery....$40,000
  machine or not.

  369 1009 1109 1099 110/011/101 
• dr65

  

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  May 7, 2013, 11:10 pm

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  Well that's the funkiest set up I've seen in a long time...

  369 1009 1109 1099 110/011/101 
• d1nnl2

  

  CHERRY HILL, NJ
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  May 11, 2013, 1:57 pm

  ▲▼

  5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
  5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50
  
  5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
  5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

  Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

  And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

  In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

  I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.
• SergeM

  

  Economy class
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  February 27, 2012
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  May 11, 2013, 2:22 pm

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  In response to d1nnl2

  Quote: Originally posted by d1nnl2 on May 11, 2013

  5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
  5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50
  
  5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
  5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

  Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

  And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

  In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

  I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.

  The payout is around 50%, so you need to win around 200% to break even. It isn't all about averages.

  The problem of reasonning that due numbers and combinations are it, is that you might be betting much longer and higher on that chance then it will pay you back.

  The other thing with the averages is that the differences expressed in frequency can be big and only show small in percentage.

  *Fooled by statistics!*

  
• LottoBoner

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  March 14, 2012
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  May 11, 2013, 3:33 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to SergeM

  Quote: Originally posted by SergeM on May 11, 2013

  The payout is around 50%, so you need to win around 200% to break even. It isn't all about averages.

  The problem of reasonning that due numbers and combinations are it, is that you might be betting much longer and higher on that chance then it will pay you back.

  The other thing with the averages is that the differences expressed in frequency can be big and only show small in percentage.

  *Fooled by statistics!*

  You can get BETTER odds by knowing the LFF and recognizing its evolution. ™
• LottoBoner

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  March 14, 2012
  7,021 Posts
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  May 11, 2013, 3:55 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to dr65

  Quote: Originally posted by dr65 on May 7, 2013

  Reliability??...in the sense that the programming is always reliable? Balls aren't.
  Sometimes even the predraws can't escape the inevitable and you probably can't get
  away with more than 7 anyway.
  Cost??.....What does cost matter unless you're a huge organization that makes huge profits
  and need a coverup that makes it appear as if you're in the same boat as the little guy?
  Empathy and a: I feel for you aren't things I'd associate with any state lottery....$40,000
  machine or not.

  How much wear and tear could they have?  Its not like the machines were lifting 10 tons of coal!!!!!
• LottoBoner

  United States
  Member #124,487
  March 14, 2012
  7,021 Posts
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  May 11, 2013, 3:57 pm

  ▲▼

  We had used 15 (pingpong ball) machines since 1989, and they were showing wear and tear," lottery spokesman Andrew Reed said. "They would have cost at least $40,000 each to replace. Two portable computers cost about $700 each."

   

  700 each??  Wow they are really running on the cheap.
• d1nnl2

  

  CHERRY HILL, NJ
  United States
  Member #130,207
  July 9, 2012
  387 Posts
  Offline
  May 11, 2013, 4:45 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to d1nnl2

  Quote: Originally posted by d1nnl2 on May 11, 2013

  5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
  5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50
  
  5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
  5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
  5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

  Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

  And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

  In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

  I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.

  SUNSHINE IS THE BEST DISINFECTANT. IF THE NJ LOTTERY CANNOT BE TRANSPARENT WITH THE MOST BASIC GAME, PICK3, HOW CAN IT BE TRUSTED WITH ANYTHING ELSE !