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Can pick 3 be beaten on the long run?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 4 years ago by d1nnl2.

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Can pick 3 be beaten on the long run?

YES [ 22 ]  [52.38%]
IT'S A BREAK EVEN OPERATION [ 6 ]  [14.29%]
NO [ 14 ]  [33.33%]
Total Valid Votes [ 42 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 1 ]  

United States
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June 2, 2012
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Posted: May 6, 2013, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

I Agree!

Agree in which direction? lol

Do you think it's possible, or not?

LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds. Green laugh

    helpmewin's avatar - dandy
    u$a
    United States
    Member #106665
    February 22, 2011
    19797 Posts
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    Posted: May 7, 2013, 12:11 am - IP Logged

    Agree in which direction? lol

    Do you think it's possible, or not?

    LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds. Green laugh

    some people can't add Crazy 

    i'm beginning to see why Todd made this site for peopleGreen laugh

    Let it Snow Snowman

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
      United States
      Member #73904
      April 28, 2009
      14903 Posts
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      Posted: May 7, 2013, 12:19 am - IP Logged

      Agree in which direction? lol

      Do you think it's possible, or not?

      LP members are really cool, educated and street smart. What we can't do is read minds. Green laugh

      I believe he was agreeing with me about preferring mechanical ball machines over computers.


                                                   
                           
                                               

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                         

      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

       

       

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
        Economy class
        Belgium
        Member #123700
        February 27, 2012
        4035 Posts
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        Posted: May 7, 2013, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

        Mathematics says, don't play it!

          dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
          Pennsylvania
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          Member #74096
          May 2, 2009
          22899 Posts
          Online
          Posted: May 7, 2013, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

          Are Computerized Lottery Drawings Truly Random?

          Hoosier Lottery officials said the change from pingpong balls to computers was made for two reasons: reliability and cost.

          "We had used 15 (pingpong ball) machines since 1989, and they were showing wear and tear," lottery spokesman Andrew Reed said. "They would have cost at least $40,000 each to replace. Two portable computers cost about $700 each."

          And Lottery Director Jack Ross said computers are not only more reliable but also produce numbers that are even more random, since even slight differences in the weight of pingpong balls -- caused by wear, paint or other factors -- could affect the numbers chosen. The lottery's selection process is closely monitored by impartial auditors, Ross and Reed said.

           

          Oops- $ 40,000 for the Machine, not the ping pong ball.

          Reliability??...in the sense that the programming is always reliable? Balls aren't.
          Sometimes even the predraws can't escape the inevitable and you probably can't get
          away with more than 7 anyway.
          Cost??.....What does cost matter unless you're a huge organization that makes huge profits
          and need a coverup that makes it appear as if you're in the same boat as the little guy?
          Empathy and a: I feel for you aren't things I'd associate with any state lottery....$40,000
          machine or not.

          246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

            dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
            Pennsylvania
            United States
            Member #74096
            May 2, 2009
            22899 Posts
            Online
            Posted: May 7, 2013, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

            Well that's the funkiest set up I've seen in a long time...Jester

            246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

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              CHERRY HILL, NJ
              United States
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              July 9, 2012
              387 Posts
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              Posted: May 11, 2013, 1:57 pm - IP Logged

              5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
              5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
              5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50

              5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
              5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
              5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

              Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

              And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

              In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

              I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
                Belgium
                Member #123700
                February 27, 2012
                4035 Posts
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                Posted: May 11, 2013, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

                5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
                5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
                5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50

                5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
                5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
                5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

                Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

                And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

                In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

                I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.

                The payout is around 50%, so you need to win around 200% to break even. It isn't all about averages.

                The problem of reasonning that due numbers and combinations are it, is that you might be betting much longer and higher on that chance then it will pay you back.

                The other thing with the averages is that the differences expressed in frequency can be big and only show small in percentage.

                *Fooled by statistics!*


                  United States
                  Member #124493
                  March 14, 2012
                  7023 Posts
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                  Posted: May 11, 2013, 3:33 pm - IP Logged

                  The payout is around 50%, so you need to win around 200% to break even. It isn't all about averages.

                  The problem of reasonning that due numbers and combinations are it, is that you might be betting much longer and higher on that chance then it will pay you back.

                  The other thing with the averages is that the differences expressed in frequency can be big and only show small in percentage.

                  *Fooled by statistics!*

                  You can get BETTER odds by knowing the LFF and recognizing its evolution. Patriot


                    United States
                    Member #124493
                    March 14, 2012
                    7023 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 11, 2013, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                    Reliability??...in the sense that the programming is always reliable? Balls aren't.
                    Sometimes even the predraws can't escape the inevitable and you probably can't get
                    away with more than 7 anyway.
                    Cost??.....What does cost matter unless you're a huge organization that makes huge profits
                    and need a coverup that makes it appear as if you're in the same boat as the little guy?
                    Empathy and a: I feel for you aren't things I'd associate with any state lottery....$40,000
                    machine or not.

                    How much wear and tear could they have?  Its not like the machines were lifting 10 tons of coal!!!!!Thud


                      United States
                      Member #124493
                      March 14, 2012
                      7023 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 11, 2013, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

                      We had used 15 (pingpong ball) machines since 1989, and they were showing wear and tear," lottery spokesman Andrew Reed said. "They would have cost at least $40,000 each to replace. Two portable computers cost about $700 each."

                       

                      700 each??  Wow they are really running on the cheap.

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                        CHERRY HILL, NJ
                        United States
                        Member #130213
                        July 9, 2012
                        387 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: May 11, 2013, 4:45 pm - IP Logged

                        5/11/2013 Midday  1/7/2008  311.50    51.50
                        5/10/2013 Evening 9/1/2005  275.00   45.50
                        5/10/2013 Midday  4/9/2000  382.00    63.50

                        5/11/2013 Midday   2 4 8 7  2,647.00  110.00
                        5/10/2013 Evening 4 2 4 2  2,123.50   353.50
                        5/10/2013 Midday  2 7 5 9  2,731.00   113.50

                        Its so easy to cut and paste Pick4 history from NJ Lottery. Its not so easy to do it with Pick3. I may have the answer.

                        And my answer is they are trying to discourage people from analyzing the results.

                        In Statistics, which is a branch of math (an exact science), there is a concept called regression to the mean. In time, everything is supposed to average out. Meaning, if Pick3 is played fair and square, all combinations should be drawn in almost equal measure. Combinations with the lowest averages over time SHOULD have the highest probability of being drawn in the future.

                        I hope someone, somewhere will take the time to compile the historical results from Pick3 drawings and profit from it. However, I am doubtful that its played fair and square.

                        SUNSHINE IS THE BEST DISINFECTANT. IF THE NJ LOTTERY CANNOT BE TRANSPARENT WITH THE MOST BASIC GAME, PICK3, HOW CAN IT BE TRUSTED WITH ANYTHING ELSE !