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My Pick 4 Wins

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 4 years ago by LottoGuyBC.

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Winning makes me smile.
bel air maryland
United States
Member #90251
April 24, 2010
4866 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 14, 2013, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

Hi Jon, 

How do you figure the odds on the remaining cards.  I took and put the numbers in a spreadsheet and just pasted the forumlas to get a rough estimate of the numbers. It is all a rough estimate and was too lazy to take and add up all the 'winning cards' and subtract them from the total.  Main point is, once the game starts and people start claiming prizes - the odds change.  To get the exact number - we would need to know how many original scratchers are still in cirucation. 

Hmmm. I have a whole bag with those dang $5 Mega Crosswords I haven't entered.  (I try and only enter the big payouts due to the 1000 limit.)  I love finding those $2 Triple plays.  Most of the time - it is only half finished and get to scratch them off.  A high percentage on those.  I did my research on the replay and found out that many of the games have about 2 to 5 million entries by the end of the draw.  Extreme odds, but - you don't have a chance to win unless your numbers are entered.  (A lot of work. If it wasn't for the finds - I wouldn't be doing it for the 'replay' game alone.)  I can see why many people don't bother with it. 

What is that saying, "One man's trash is another man's treasure." 

Beside from my 'monoply' account - I am very conservative and only play $15 on the 'non-repeating' and have been since I started.  When the big check arrived - that is when I uped the ante and started playing $12 on doubles as well.  I am fairly new at aiming for the 'doubles.'  Last month - they were way over their projected number.  I keep everything in spreadsheet and have gone back a year and tracked how they fell during the months.  If one or the other went over - then within month or two - they would dipp way under.  So - I am waiting it out to see if they are going to lose ground while the 'non-repeating' numbers catch up,  Then, I am going to start betting on 6 wheeled numbers ($60) ever day. 

I track ever number I have drawn in order.  1st postion, second postion, and such to see how many hits I would have had - had I played a higher number. Last month, I would have had $1600 profit if I had played 6 numbers every day - aimed at both the 12way(doubles) and 24way(Non-repeating.) 

I am still testing the water - and I am leary about increasing my bets any - since - what I have been doing has been working just fine. 

Sincerely, 

David

dking777,

Congrats on your success. Keeping a spreadsheet for singles and the doubles is a good thing to do. You will find, what goes up

must come down and vice versa. Keep in mind everything balances out in the long run and what is cold now, will eventually

start to catch up. By tracking it you will be able to predict when trends will turn around and when they do, jump on it. This will

apply to pretty much anything you can think of to track. Good Luck!!!

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

    dking777's avatar - Lottery-018.jpg
    New Member
    Burbank CA
    United States
    Member #131965
    August 22, 2012
    25 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 14, 2013, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

    I would have to say definitely beginners luck. Don't get drawn in over your head. I started playing Georgia Cash 4 sometime around 2004. I didn't get my first exact order hit until over a year later. I probably won somewhere around $50,000 over the years but have spent far more than that to get those wins. I would hate to imagine how much money down the drain. I study and analyze numbers to the point of obsession every day but often go several months to a year without winning anything more substantial than a $100 box or two. It becomes extremely frustrating. There is no doubt I would be much better off in many regards today if I had never got involved with this game but too late now, got to keep trying is the pervasive mentality. Some people are lucky enough that they can win maybe 50-100k on one good number but I never had that kind of luck.

    Hi Kal, 

    I have a partner who wanted in on this when I started researching this.  I turned to him - becasue he is always playing the lotto.  I told him I played the game on my computer and told him my 'hit/miss' ratio and he thought he had discovered the 'goose' laying the golden egg.  He offered to front the 'seed' money in return to split the winnings.  I just formed two accounts on 'excel' - one for me and one for the partnership.  He wanted to play all the games and I kept telling him, "I am NOT playing the numbers.  I am playing the odds."   To get my point access - I now walk up to him every day with my coffee can with my numbers in it.  I tell him to pick 4 slips and those are the 4 numbers I bet agaist. I don't care if they are 'hot' - 'cold,' due or on a run. 

    I came with the idea after I had obbsessed over the numbers for a couple of weeks.  Then - I went and got all the winning numbers for the last 10 months and pasted them  into a colum.  I then went to a page that randomly genorates numbers.  I went to another spreadsheet and just went through and pasted the random numbers next to the winnning numbers.  I did this 6 different times.  It shocked me to find out that being random had an average hit/miss ratio better than my own.  Depending on the numbers I wheeled would depend on the hit/miss ratio and it was always in line with the projected probality listed on the genorater page.  To me - it is NOT in the numbers you pick as much as it is in how many numbers you wheel to play. 

    I put the remaining six numbers on web page generator that will list every combinaiotn of numbers you list.  The only discision I make about it - is what order to place the numbers into the wheel. 

    I am trying to aviod obessessing over whether or not I can increase my hits by picking the numbers for a 'hot' or 'cold' list and beating myself up when it misses.  Since California is parimutual - I look forward to my misses being on days when the pay out is low.  (Like yesterday.  The pay out was only $100. Yippee.)  I get happy when I miss on low payout days. 

    My thought is the same.  I feel the odds are - if you play everday - then you might have a 'straight' hit once a year. My partner thinks we are going to hit once a month and I think that is out of range of what to expect in the future. 

    Starting out - I am loving this game - but I undertand it can go sour on me if I am not carefull. 

    Thanks for the sound advice. 

    Sincerely, 

    David

      Avatar
      Albany, GA
      United States
      Member #100611
      November 15, 2010
      10162 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 14, 2013, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

      Hi Kal, 

      I have a partner who wanted in on this when I started researching this.  I turned to him - becasue he is always playing the lotto.  I told him I played the game on my computer and told him my 'hit/miss' ratio and he thought he had discovered the 'goose' laying the golden egg.  He offered to front the 'seed' money in return to split the winnings.  I just formed two accounts on 'excel' - one for me and one for the partnership.  He wanted to play all the games and I kept telling him, "I am NOT playing the numbers.  I am playing the odds."   To get my point access - I now walk up to him every day with my coffee can with my numbers in it.  I tell him to pick 4 slips and those are the 4 numbers I bet agaist. I don't care if they are 'hot' - 'cold,' due or on a run. 

      I came with the idea after I had obbsessed over the numbers for a couple of weeks.  Then - I went and got all the winning numbers for the last 10 months and pasted them  into a colum.  I then went to a page that randomly genorates numbers.  I went to another spreadsheet and just went through and pasted the random numbers next to the winnning numbers.  I did this 6 different times.  It shocked me to find out that being random had an average hit/miss ratio better than my own.  Depending on the numbers I wheeled would depend on the hit/miss ratio and it was always in line with the projected probality listed on the genorater page.  To me - it is NOT in the numbers you pick as much as it is in how many numbers you wheel to play. 

      I put the remaining six numbers on web page generator that will list every combinaiotn of numbers you list.  The only discision I make about it - is what order to place the numbers into the wheel. 

      I am trying to aviod obessessing over whether or not I can increase my hits by picking the numbers for a 'hot' or 'cold' list and beating myself up when it misses.  Since California is parimutual - I look forward to my misses being on days when the pay out is low.  (Like yesterday.  The pay out was only $100. Yippee.)  I get happy when I miss on low payout days. 

      My thought is the same.  I feel the odds are - if you play everday - then you might have a 'straight' hit once a year. My partner thinks we are going to hit once a month and I think that is out of range of what to expect in the future. 

      Starting out - I am loving this game - but I undertand it can go sour on me if I am not carefull. 

      Thanks for the sound advice. 

      Sincerely, 

      David

      I think I will try your system next time I'm running up against that brick wall. I should be rich by now if it were not for the lottery lady's 1-off trick, LOL

        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
        Los Angeles, California
        United States
        Member #103813
        January 5, 2011
        1530 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 15, 2013, 9:10 am - IP Logged

        Hi Jon, 

        How do you figure the odds on the remaining cards.  I took and put the numbers in a spreadsheet and just pasted the forumlas to get a rough estimate of the numbers. It is all a rough estimate and was too lazy to take and add up all the 'winning cards' and subtract them from the total.  Main point is, once the game starts and people start claiming prizes - the odds change.  To get the exact number - we would need to know how many original scratchers are still in cirucation. 

        Hmmm. I have a whole bag with those dang $5 Mega Crosswords I haven't entered.  (I try and only enter the big payouts due to the 1000 limit.)  I love finding those $2 Triple plays.  Most of the time - it is only half finished and get to scratch them off.  A high percentage on those.  I did my research on the replay and found out that many of the games have about 2 to 5 million entries by the end of the draw.  Extreme odds, but - you don't have a chance to win unless your numbers are entered.  (A lot of work. If it wasn't for the finds - I wouldn't be doing it for the 'replay' game alone.)  I can see why many people don't bother with it. 

        What is that saying, "One man's trash is another man's treasure." 

        Beside from my 'monoply' account - I am very conservative and only play $15 on the 'non-repeating' and have been since I started.  When the big check arrived - that is when I uped the ante and started playing $12 on doubles as well.  I am fairly new at aiming for the 'doubles.'  Last month - they were way over their projected number.  I keep everything in spreadsheet and have gone back a year and tracked how they fell during the months.  If one or the other went over - then within month or two - they would dipp way under.  So - I am waiting it out to see if they are going to lose ground while the 'non-repeating' numbers catch up,  Then, I am going to start betting on 6 wheeled numbers ($60) ever day. 

        I track ever number I have drawn in order.  1st postion, second postion, and such to see how many hits I would have had - had I played a higher number. Last month, I would have had $1600 profit if I had played 6 numbers every day - aimed at both the 12way(doubles) and 24way(Non-repeating.) 

        I am still testing the water - and I am leary about increasing my bets any - since - what I have been doing has been working just fine. 

        Sincerely, 

        David

        The odds on Scratchers prizes don't really change much even as the game progresses, if anything only slightly.

        Take the $1MFortune game for instance. The odds on $500 is 1 in 1,263. You calculated some 1 in 4,061 odds, and I can assume that you were only calculating that line, which is not the correct way to do it. You would actually have to go and add up all the prizes remaining, and then divided by $500 prizes remaining would give you 1,305. But that is not exact because it includes all the throwaways. So the best calculation is to take the best estimate of remaining percentage of the game, which happens to be right around 30.0% right now, times the total tickets printed 30,000,000 and divided by remaining $500 prizes which is 7,067 and that gives you 1,273 or very little changed from the game odds of 1 in 1,263.

        But back to your Daily 4 wins. You got some awesome wins early on in your play. Hope that continues for you. And especially funded by "found money" makes it even better! Thumbs Up

          Avatar
          CHERRY HILL, NJ
          United States
          Member #130213
          July 9, 2012
          387 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 15, 2013, 9:37 am - IP Logged

          You should come visit us where people play scratchers sitting down in front of a large uncovered trash bin where they neatly dispose of their losers. The clerk in our corner store also got into the habit of collecting the discards and rechecking them. Ocassionally he comes across winners and uses the winnings to play the numbers. Sadly he's doing it on company time and the owner must have noticed, his hours got cut. With less hours, fewer winners on the discards, he has to use his own money on the numbers.

          Its a sad tale which I pray will not befall you. I still think however that there are more productive ways you can spend your time on. I hope your lucky streak goes on forever. If it does not, I hope you will realize soon enough when the streak is over and do everything in moderation. Good Luck.

            Nikkicute's avatar - nnjx1k
            Wisconsin
            United States
            Member #123290
            February 17, 2012
            3050 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 21, 2013, 10:56 am - IP Logged

            Hi Kal, 

            I have a partner who wanted in on this when I started researching this.  I turned to him - becasue he is always playing the lotto.  I told him I played the game on my computer and told him my 'hit/miss' ratio and he thought he had discovered the 'goose' laying the golden egg.  He offered to front the 'seed' money in return to split the winnings.  I just formed two accounts on 'excel' - one for me and one for the partnership.  He wanted to play all the games and I kept telling him, "I am NOT playing the numbers.  I am playing the odds."   To get my point access - I now walk up to him every day with my coffee can with my numbers in it.  I tell him to pick 4 slips and those are the 4 numbers I bet agaist. I don't care if they are 'hot' - 'cold,' due or on a run. 

            I came with the idea after I had obbsessed over the numbers for a couple of weeks.  Then - I went and got all the winning numbers for the last 10 months and pasted them  into a colum.  I then went to a page that randomly genorates numbers.  I went to another spreadsheet and just went through and pasted the random numbers next to the winnning numbers.  I did this 6 different times.  It shocked me to find out that being random had an average hit/miss ratio better than my own.  Depending on the numbers I wheeled would depend on the hit/miss ratio and it was always in line with the projected probality listed on the genorater page.  To me - it is NOT in the numbers you pick as much as it is in how many numbers you wheel to play. 

            I put the remaining six numbers on web page generator that will list every combinaiotn of numbers you list.  The only discision I make about it - is what order to place the numbers into the wheel. 

            I am trying to aviod obessessing over whether or not I can increase my hits by picking the numbers for a 'hot' or 'cold' list and beating myself up when it misses.  Since California is parimutual - I look forward to my misses being on days when the pay out is low.  (Like yesterday.  The pay out was only $100. Yippee.)  I get happy when I miss on low payout days. 

            My thought is the same.  I feel the odds are - if you play everday - then you might have a 'straight' hit once a year. My partner thinks we are going to hit once a month and I think that is out of range of what to expect in the future. 

            Starting out - I am loving this game - but I undertand it can go sour on me if I am not carefull. 

            Thanks for the sound advice. 

            Sincerely, 

            David

            Where's this web page generator you post about?

            Is it here on Lottery Post?

              LottoGuyBC's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
              British Columbia
              Canada
              Member #116101
              September 4, 2011
              4033 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 21, 2013, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

              Well Done Sir  Well Done

              "You have to be in it to win it!"