this is awesome! I already have my tickets. Do you?

I hope it rolls saturday and then like 5-6 people win on Wednesday.... That'd b awesome... just to see how high it'd go!!!!

if no one wins Saturday? say hello to billion jackpot

thro i give it less then 5% chance of rollin, so many numbers will be in  play for this draw,  if not played twice

real story is will only 1 ticket win, only 2 jackpots to get to this level before have had more then 1 winner to spit the jackpot

350 cash ha,   its 211,460,400 atfer 39.6 max fed tax rate folks

ofc that be much higher come draw

point is 200 plus million atfer's all taxs, u be among  level of top 0.01% rich

and travel the world in only best way possible, by private jet

plus u can do this

 man this thing just so much already  , my jaw will drop if it rolls

I knew Todd would eventually finish his article and update the increase. People need to give him some slack as running this site isn't as easy as it seems.

$550 MILLION: Powerball jackpot

There it is

        It's a challenge to keep up with a website

       Keep up with the good job ... Todd

keep up

Hey I just noticed that "mcginnin56" hasn't posted in a while. I tried sending him a PM and it says his account is inactive??

Woo Hoo

Someone said earlier that this is the perfect time to hit the MM JP. How I agree.

Thanks Todd you are on top of it

oo yeh keep it rising  bby ... predicting it wil rise to 700 mill. by saturday.

definitely going to be an interesting weekend for certain

Heres what $200,000,000.00 looks like...I'm ready!!

Eh, it's gonna roll again & be hit next Wednesday at a billion $.  MM next to follow with a billion $ jackpot.  No one can win.  The next Powerball winner will make history as being the first winner that it wasn't too easy for them to win.

Lol, theres a very small chance of it rolling again and mm will likely never get to where it did last year let alone a billion.

Nah, it's all probability. MM could reach a trillion given enough time. (Even if there are syndicates who plan to buy every possible combination, there's 

a chance they'll accidentally leave 1 out, etc) It may take a googol years or longer, but it will happen, given that it continues for a long enough time.

The chances of the powerball rolling again is actually not THAT low. If I remember correctly, there was something like a 20-30% chance rolling last time, 

but there's only 3 days to buy tickets this time.

I wondered where he was also!

The poor fella was stripped of his avatar last time he was on. I guess zero ranking takes the fun out of it. 

Once I win, I'm going to get an entire movie theater room built on my property. Might even make it Imax.

Lots of homes have theaters, but only seat around 30. Imax is overkill.

Yes, overkill. That's what I want! I'm going to get ridiculous with it. You can only get into the theater by driving a go-kart down the track that leads to the room. Otherwise you're gonna be walking for a long time. And instead of stairs in the theater, it's going to be an escalator.

I used to have a Boston Celtics logo as my avatar but it was rudely thrown out lol. So I settled for the one I currently have. Its not cute but it is unique and thats wassup.

If you have people to fill it. go for it. I would hate to see you sitting in there all alone. 

You may consider photography from a deep space observatory? Its out of this world!

 mcginnin56 's  wasn't rudely thrown out..... He was warned several times...... 

What do you think the new odds will be for winning the JP?  They would be far greater than 1 in 175 mill come  saturday night.

My guess is, it will be won on Saturday night! Hope there will be multiple winners.

I know. Just think if one person wins it that would be amazing.  Out of all the people playing that would be some extreme luck!

The odds for winning PB are still the same. Just the jackpot will be that much higher 

The odds of winning will still be 1 in 175M, that will remain the same unless they change the number of balls in the drawings. The only probability change would be the number of people who could win. Less people playing means a greater chance of one winner. Now that the number of tickets sold has jumped, the chance of there being only one winner is more unlikely.

Just to nitpick slightly, that's not actually true  

Here's an example: No one plays. The chance of 1 winner is 0. 

Now 1 player buys 1 ticket. The chance is roughly 1 in 175 million. More tickets actually meant more chances of there being "only" 1 winner in this case.

I don't know at what point your statement becomes true, and I'm too lazy to calculate. But I think that the "equilibrium" is somewhere between this draw 

and the previous draw.

I'm hoping for one winner! People will just freak out. The entertainment factor will be out of this world.

   1 mega 1 power ball

The cash value is currently just over 63% of the advertised jackpot, and each ticket contributes a hair under 64 cents towards the jackpot. That means that the increase in the advertised jackpot is very nearly equal to the number of tickets sold. Assuming it gets to an even $650 million by the time of the drawing there will have been an increase of an even $300 million, and there will have been just about 300 million tickets sold.

300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4.

That's very small compared to the chances of a rollover when the advertised jackpot increases by $20 or even $30 million, but for such a huge jackpot I'd call it a significant chance.

I dont get it...how does 64 cents represent a dollar?

I don't think your math adds up on this one. 

i was of the understanding that fifty cents went to the lotto and fifty cents went to the state.  Even if it was sixty four cents per ticket towards the jackpot, a $300,000,000 increase would mean 468,750,000 tickets would have to be sold. I might be wrong though

Wow, that is really nitpicky.

Okay, yes, depending on how many tickets one person purchases or doesn't purchase at all, then the odds change. But I don't believe that was her question. I read her comment to be that the number of individual people buying a ticket changed the odds. So as it stands right now with more than zero people participating, it's still 1 in 175M per ticket. even if a billion people were to play. 

If only one person plays the PB and purchases only one ticket, the odds of matching all numbers is the same as if a million people each purchased one ticket.

Then when 1 person purchases more than 1 ticket assuming that each additional ticket does not contain the exact same numbers, the odds increase from that 1 in 175M in favor of the purchaser. 

There I think I covered every eventuality. But if I didn't, I'm too lazy to think of all the other caveats. I think she gets the point. The number of people playing does not change the odds of winning as long as there is more than zero players, but the number of tickets purchased by multiple people and not just her increases the chances of sharing the jackpot. Phew, way to beat a dead horse. 

Sorry, I don't think you understood my point. What I was trying to say was regarding your second point, that as more and more people buy tickets, 

the chance of there being only 1 winner decreases isn't necessarily true. 

As more people buy tickets, the chances of another roll over decreases. But the chance of there being a single winner can increase or decrease depending 

on the number of tickets already bought.

Oh, that's interesting. I'd read a %age went to the state, a %age covered lottery administrative costs and then a %age went to the jackpot. Which is why I'm always shocked by a huge leap. But I could be wrong too. LOL.

As for 468M tickets needing to be sold, that's conceivable. You'd only need 50M people to buy 10 tickets. Factor in all the office pools and people buying a lot more tickets because of the jackpot, you don't even need 50m people. 25M zealous players could get you there easily.

Okay, sorry. You've completely lost me.

How does the number of tickets purchased by a greater number of people not increase the odds of more than one winner? Assuming they didn't all get together and decide to pick the same numbers. I'm not seeing how it doesn't increase regardless of anything else.

I don't doubt the number of tickets could be sold. However, my point which I forgot to add to that is that the percentage it would roll would drop dramatically.

Yep, I agree it would drop, but wouldn't it be amazing if it didn't? I think it would be awesome to see $1 billion. But the odds aren't in my favor to see it happen, though, fingers crossed.

OK I didn't say anything about increasing the odds of more than one winner. Basically, if we split it into 3 categories:

1. No winners, rollover wow!

2. single winner, yay

3. more than 1 winners. 

1 will always decrease and 3 will always increase, with the increase of ticket sales > 1. 

For the 2nd category, where there's ONLY a single winner, no more, no less, the chances might increase with more tickets until so many tickets have been 

bought that it'll start decreasing. Maybe it doesn't matter to you, that's why you didn't understand my point. Personally I'm pretty much only interested in 

roll overs or when there's only a single winner (because its more exciting imo) so I'm really interested in the % chance of roll over or only a single winner.

What I'm really hoping though, is for a billion dollar jackpot. Preferably on a draw when my parents happen to go to the states to buy stuff, then I can tag 

along, sneak away and buy a few tickets

ashabug725 why would you rate this news story a one star?

Okay, NOW I get you. For a moment there I thought I'd gone retarded. 

As for your point, I'm apparently a very greedy person. But I say it without any shame or remorse. I am hoping for a single winner or a roll over. 

No offense to there being a multiple win and the concept of sharing, but it takes away the thrill for me. Humungous jackpot and then 2 or 3 or 4 people win so that each individual ticket is pretty much no more impressive than any a single win on a decent size jackpot.

Not to mention, just the odds of a single person winning a billion dollar pot, all the factors that would have had to line up to even get there. I'm definitely not smart enough to figure out those odds. Getting to a billion, with all those consecutive roll overs. One single payout. Lightning in a bottle. Something that shouldn't be, but is. That would be AWESOME!

Looks like we're the same on this point. Having more than one winner just makes it so anticlimatic. Especially when I see this huge syndicate win and they

only walk away with like 300k per person, that's so lame imo. 

I wonder when we'll be able to see 5 billion and 10 billion jackpots 8D

I wonder if I could afford to become a platinum member if I will by myself LOL

I have my hiding place picked out .................

No pics, No interviews except an exclusive with Todd

Well, it's just that it had to come from so far to get there. Rollover after rollover until it gets to a history making number, only to have it split up into little bits that seem to make a mockery of the lengths and odds it took to get to that quantity. 

As for $5B, will this new foolishness MM is going to put into effect to make the odds even more ridiculous, it's entirely possible. It'll take forever to get there, but no reason to rule it out as a possibility.

What 'huge syndicate win' are you referring to? 

I didn't realize I rated it at all :( my phone is so touchy.... Especially when I try to get it from my 18 month olds hands... I have not a bad thing to say.about anything.... Otherwise I wouldn't b here!!!!!!!!

i have bad news.... on saturday there will be one winner..and it is going to be me... greetings from chicago

One winner would be awesome (especially if it were me!).  I personally would like to see that because it's more exciting.  The media frenzy, craziness, and speculation.  The news coverage would be insane.  Winning the lottery is truly the dream we all dream.  EXTREME WEALTH!!!!  Just to be a part of that would be amazing.  The closest I have ever come to glimpsing that type of decadence is eating with gold utensils at a VIP restaurant in a Las Vegas casino.  Jay Leno was eating at the same restaurant.  That was years ago.  That was a nice experience but NOTHING compared to this. 

Wouldn't it be great if it was tax-free? Man oh Man.

i will def settle for 2nd prize a million or 2 will do me fine :).

so you all canhave the big prixe ill take 2nd and be happy  good luck everyone i also got  my tickets i buy 1  a day till its won.

i agree with true, id be very happy with 2nd prize. unless of course my pb number was 1 off, then i might grumble a  little bit.

Good Luck

I am in race too and hope to win

so it was an accident? that's what I thought. why would anyone one star a news story talking about a $550 million jackpot?

Absolutely!!! I didn't know it was rated until u said something... And there's no way 550,000,000 story could b less than 5 stars!!!! Lol :) regardless of story... If I didn't like it I just wouldn't rate it, rather than 1star!!! Now waiting for another jp increase!!!

this will be my first step... to donate  a big part to the needed kids . the future of our country . god bless....

I know I have the winning ticket. I also know that someone from North Caronlina has a winning ticket. We will be spliting the jackpot on Saturday. Uh, WOW!

 Well, some people said no one helps no one but themselves. Not my opinion though.

 Maybe it's my pipe dream but even if I become the sole winner....

 I will still eat at Chipotle.

 I will still shop at Costco.

 I will drive a Toyota Sienna.

 I will live in a townhome in a gated middle-class community.

"300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4."

I have no idea how you calculated that (Poisson distribution???) but the Wizard of Odds came up with the same answer, that there's about a 25% chance of a rollover.

Anyway, the only reason I mention it is because he estimates that if it isn't won this drawing, and if it goes over 1 billion for next week, that there will be on average a 17 WAY split with the chance of no winners at 1 in 27 MILLION.  Personally, I think his analysis is flawed this time - but still.  There's a chance this jackpot won't be won - in fact, it's something like 20-25% while next time, but if that happens, we'll see a lottery ticket buying frenzy we've never seen before.

So, that being said, it's actually probably better to play this drawing than it will be if it rolls over again.  If there's another rollover, expect to see a split between multiple people winning the biggest jackpot in history.

No suprise that Boney comes crawling out of the woodwork now that PB is at $500 million. So is today is the big day that you buy some lottery tickets Boney? How many lines will you play? 2? 3? Just wondering.

I predict no active LP member will win.

/Nostradamus

I predict that you are wrong.

Let the good times roll. Lottery players are winners.

I haven't decided.  Probably one.  I've said this to you before, and you've usually taken it out of context.  I don't really like to play the huge games.  I only really play NJ's cash 5 when it's at 1 million plus.  I usually do 10 dollar a draw for that (used to play 30, but when it rolls over 3 times in a row, I'm spending nearly 100 dollars on the lottery, something I'm not really up for) but I do usually buy at least one ticket for these huge draws.  I'd rather take a 1 in 650,000 at around a million than a 1 in 175 million chance at half a billion.  Personal preference.  It's just more fun to me, and it's more likely to be life changing.

If I make it to a store that sells lottery tickets (chances are pretty high I will) then I'll buy a ticket, and maybe 2 or 3, but no more than that.  If it rolls over, I'll probably refrain from buying tickets.

Funnily enough, I think the attention on PB is going to make it less likely for MM to be won.  So the MM is very likely to be around 230-280 million by the time PB is done.

The after-tax cash takeaway will probably be around 300 million---give or take a few according to your state---by the time it's all said and done. I get your excitement, I'm excited too, but come on---that prize could be shared 2-3-4 ways and everyone would be golden, with many, many lives changed (family, friends, charities) for the better.

One thing is true, though---the more I win, the more I can share.

Good luck. If you win---even a shared prize---you can invest in your own VIP restaurant. Maybe a couple.

Just When To $600 Million, $700 Million looking like its in reach...

$600 million annuity or $376.9 million lump sum. I wonder if Todd is getting worn out with all these updates

I love Costco!  I would still go there if I had over $200 million dollars in the bank.  The pizza and hot dogs are inexpensive and tasty.  Inside there's a pharmacy, bakery, butcher, eye glass and photo departments, the frozen section, and more.  It's like a supermarket and more.  I like browsing their jewelry and clothing areas.  I like their steaks and variety of juices.  They have fun outdoor stuff like hammocks, furniture, storage sheds, barbecues, club houses, and more.  There is even dog food and dog beds.  And, don't forget all the free samples!  Costco is AWESOME!  I could easily spend hours there if I had the money!

How about Kohl's? Love shopping at Kohl's. Excellent value.

Kohl's, Target, CVS, Home Depot, Disneyland, Johnny Rocket's, Ruby's Diner (they have great Oreo milkshakes!), Red Robin, El Pollo Loco, McDonalds, and In & Out........Those are fun places to go to even if I were super rich.

Um... a 17 way split on average?

You'd need to buy 17 * 175 million tickets for that O_O.... if a dollar from every ticket goes towards the annuity value, then that would mean an increase

of 2.975 billion in the jackpot... adding that to the 600 mil and its 3.575 billion... I actually wouldn't mind splitting that 17 ways too much. 

Or did I misunderstand something?

You are not alone ashabug it happen to me once I was trying to rate from my phone and rated a 4 instead of a 5.

Well, the Jackpot as they show it is a (conservative) estimate of wha they expect it to be by the time sales close down.  It increases as sales increase because they have to be conservative, as they are advertizing a jackpot bigger than the funds they've already gotten from ticket sales.  So they try to estimate how much they think it will sell, and make the advertized jackpot less because nobodies going to complain if they win MORE than the advertized amount, they would if they got less.

I really didn't think about it before posting, but after looking at it I think this is what he meant.  He's estimating if they advertize a jackpot 1 billion dollars or bigger, that sales will reach 3 billion.  He admits that this is basedon analyzation, and because it's never happened before - he's not sure it's possible.  I don't know how much of each ticket goes towards the jackpot, I think it's less than a dollar.

But yeah, if you assume a ridiculous jackpot like 2 billion, splitting it's not bad, but I still think it's better to play now than a draw that will likely sell billions of tickets.  At some point, an increase in sales makes the value of each ticket go down.  The relationship between jackpot size and value of each ticket isn't linear, in fact it wanes off around 425 million dollars.

(BTW, a 17 way split is based off of 3 billion sales, and 1 in 175 million odds, if sales are lower.  That's an average, so it's probably gonna differ from that, but if sales reach that insane level, then there will likely be a lot of winners.)

I understand your point, and its a good point. But higher jackpots doesn't necessarily mean higher ticket sales. 

Take for example, a jackpot with 500,000,000,000 cash option, after tax. 

then a jackpot with 900,000,000,000 cash option, after tax. I don't think the latter will have a higher number of tickets because people would've spent their

as much as they can afford on the first jackpot already. 

Of course, that's a very extreme example. But the point still stands; do I think that a billion-dollar jackpot will get higher sales than the current, 600 million

one? Yes, I do. But it certainly won't be so much higher. If the average for the current draw is 2-3 winners, I highly, highly doubt that the average for the 

next draw, assuming a rollover will be more than 5 winners. People just don't have that much money to spend.

So I predict that there will be less than 6 winners for this current run (so if it rolls over, less than 6 winners next draw etc)

Excel will do Poisson calculations, but I only use Excel for straightforward stuff. I've never bothered to learn more than the basics, so I just use a simple iterative function that approximates it. I also sometimes apply a little bit of spin, since people playing non-random combinations reduce the number of used combinations a bit below what random probability results in. I already commented on his flawed analysis  for a rollover elsewhere.

There's definitely a sweet spot in the $400 to $600 million range where a single winner is still more likely than multiple winners. I never get extravagant with my ticket buying, but I doubled up on this one. If it rolls I'll probably still buy 2 tickets or even go hog wild and get 3, but winning after a rollover could very well result in a smaller win than taking it tomorow night.

"He's estimating if they advertize a jackpot 1 billion dollars or bigger, that sales will reach 3 billion.  He admits that this is basedon analyzation, and because it's never happened before - he's not sure it's possible."

Okay, that makes more sense than what you said in another thread. If the advertised jackpot resulted in selling 3 billion tickets,  it would add about $1.9 billion to the cash value (it's a hair under 64 cents per ticket). That means he's suggesting that advertising a billion dollar jackpot would actualy result in a final jackpot of about  $2.5 billion in cash, or $4 billion as the final advertised amount. Even split 17 ways that would be $147 million in pre-tax cash.

As for whether or not it's possible to sell 3 billion tickets, there are two issues. One is the maximum capacity of all the available lottery terminals. There might not be enough cpacity to register and print 3 billion tickets. The other is the capacity of crazy people to buy tickets. Some people will make the $500 spenders look like pikers if it goes over a billion, but a lot of people who already spend a lot of money can't or won't do it again. Many more won't spend more money, no matter how high the jackpot gets. At some point ticket sales will level off no matter how much the jackpot increases. The only question is what that point is, and if we'll get to see it.

"There's definitely a sweet spot in the $400 to $600 million range where a single winner is still more likely than multiple winners."

Yep, if I recall correctly, he found that sweet spot to be 425 million.  I think that he's got a couple flaws in there, one that seems apparent to me is that nowadays, there's been more huge jackpots.  So people are more used to seeing them, and aren't going to spend as much as they would have a few years ago on a huge jackpot.

Still, it'd be interesting to see the Mega Millions get above a billion.  I'd have to think that'd be very likely to sell at least 1 or 2 billion tickets (if not more) but I can't say.  I just think it'd be interesting to see a huge jackpot get taken down by 20 or so people.