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Powerball Rollover This Saturday? ( Voting )

Topic closed. 37 replies. Last post 4 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Powerball Rollover This Saturday or No?

Yes, we will have a historic jackpot! [ 22 ]  [32.84%]
No, someone is going to win! [ 45 ]  [67.16%]
Total Valid Votes [ 67 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
United States
Member #112968
June 29, 2011
3856 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 18, 2013, 10:31 am - IP Logged

Nope, New Jersey's got this, I'm calling it right now.  Three winners from that state.

I believe you are correct.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
    Los Angeles, California
    United States
    Member #103813
    January 5, 2011
    1530 Posts
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    Posted: May 18, 2013, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

    Does anyone know what percent of possible combinations have been sold already?

    They announced this morning that 80% of combinations have been purchased. Put a fork in it...

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/powerball-jackpot-600m-and-rising-for-saturdays-drawing-lottery-record-could-fall-again/2013/05/18/ef79b8de-bf97-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html

      dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
      Pennsylvania
      United States
      Member #74096
      May 2, 2009
      22933 Posts
      Online
      Posted: May 18, 2013, 10:39 pm - IP Logged

      What are the chances that the winning set will be contained in the remainder of unsold
      combos?
      Billion dollar territory would be insane!
      Someone once provided a breakdown I believe even Todd remarked on....it described
      just how the quick pick pool might be handled.
      Does anyone remember that thread comment, poster or have a link?

      246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

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        Morrison, IL
        United States
        Member #4657
        May 13, 2004
        1884 Posts
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        Posted: May 19, 2013, 12:08 am - IP Logged

        Considering five out of the six numbers picked were birthday numbers, this jackpot FALLS tonight!  Too bad it didn't fall into my lap.

        ---

          Avatar

          United States
          Member #124814
          March 20, 2012
          219 Posts
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          Posted: May 19, 2013, 12:22 am - IP Logged

          Considering five out of the six numbers picked were birthday numbers, this jackpot FALLS tonight!  Too bad it didn't fall into my lap.

          Going off the usamega site http://www.usamega.com/powerball-history.asp

          The last 5 times that has happened, no one has won. I only checked the first page.


            United States
            Member #106134
            February 13, 2011
            806 Posts
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            Posted: May 19, 2013, 12:35 am - IP Logged

            Very odd numbers this drawing, mostly in the teens. 

            It might just roll again.

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
              United States
              Member #73904
              April 28, 2009
              14903 Posts
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              Posted: May 19, 2013, 11:55 pm - IP Logged

              Very odd numbers this drawing, mostly in the teens. 

              It might just roll again.

              I say it won't.

                Avatar
                NY
                United States
                Member #23835
                October 16, 2005
                3474 Posts
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                Posted: May 20, 2013, 1:16 am - IP Logged

                What are the chances that the winning set will be contained in the remainder of unsold
                combos?
                Billion dollar territory would be insane!
                Someone once provided a breakdown I believe even Todd remarked on....it described
                just how the quick pick pool might be handled.
                Does anyone remember that thread comment, poster or have a link?

                Any chance you might be referring to a post I made about how probability results in duplicate combinations? I'm not going to dig up the one Todd commented on, but here's the short and simple version.  After they've sold 1% of the combinations you should expect that 1 out of every 100 tickets with random combinations will be duplicates from the first 1%. When 2% of combinations have been sold 2 out of every 100 tickets with random combinations should be duplicates from the first 2%. And so on.

                For modest jackpots the number of duplicates from random selections is small, but for really big jackpots with very large numbers of tickets sold the effect becomes significant. When 50% of combinations have already been played selling another 10 million tickets will only use about 5 million of the unused combinations. If 75% have already been used selling another 10 million tickets will only use about 2.5 million. That makes it virtually impossible to sell all combinations and literally have 0% chance of a rollover. FWIW, a rollover with an increase of $400 million to give us the first billion dollar jackpot would still have had about a 10% chance of rolling to an even crazier amount.

                Lottoreport says that just over 232 million tickets were sold. For an increase from 350 to 590.5 million I'd figure it was a bit over 235 million, but the last drawing may have topped out a bit over 350. Either way, if all combinations had been selected randomly slightly less than 75% of combinations should have been in play. Of course the actual results won't perfectly match what probability suggests, but with 175 million combinations a significant departure is very unlikely.

                Players making non-random selections increases the number of duplicates, and lowers the percentage of combinations in play, because they pick from subsets of all possible combinations.