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# Rollover/Number of Winner Probabilities for a 600M annuity jackpot.

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 4 years ago by ressuccess.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 17, 2013, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball now has an annuity jackpot of 600M, with a cash value of 377M, which suggests that the lottery expects to sell 457.4M dollars worth of tickets, with half that number being the actual tickets sold on this drawing.

The randomized Poisson probabilities for numbers of winners at this sales level, with 0 representing a rollover is as follows:

 k,   number of winners p(m,k) 0 27.11% 1 35.39% 2 23.09% 3 10.05% 4 3.28% 5 0.86% 6 0.19% 7 0.03% 8 0.01%

The pretax expectation value is 0.93.

There is still a small but shrinking chance of yet another rollover, but the most probable single outcome is a single winner, although a number of winners greater than one is actually a higher probability in sum.

United States
Member #135804
November 29, 2012
332 Posts
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 Posted: May 17, 2013, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

Based on empirical data, your projected sales is off. \$563,131,974 + \$26,218,974 from Powerplay was the sales from the November drawing and that was less than this PB jackpot

Mega in 2012 was \$651,915,940 for their \$600M+ drawing

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 17, 2013, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

Based on empirical data, your projected sales is off. \$563,131,974 + \$26,218,974 from Powerplay was the sales from the November drawing and that was less than this PB jackpot

Mega in 2012 was \$651,915,940 for their \$600M+ drawing

Powerplay does not enter into the jackpot calculation and is irrelevant to the Poisson calculation.

The sales calculation is based on the advertised cash values of this, and the previous draw, and is obviously an approximation, since the lottery often underestimates the sales.

Powerplay, which is always a bad bet when one measures the expectation value, applies to lower level prizes only, and does not affect the probability of winners of jackpot prizes..

United States
Member #93164
June 23, 2010
1424 Posts
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 Posted: May 23, 2013, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

Someone in Florida won the Powerball Jackpot estimated at \$590.5 million.

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