|Posted: May 17, 2013, 4:25 pm - IP Logged|
The Powerball now has an annuity jackpot of 600M, with a cash value of 377M, which suggests that the lottery expects to sell 457.4M dollars worth of tickets, with half that number being the actual tickets sold on this drawing.
The randomized Poisson probabilities for numbers of winners at this sales level, with 0 representing a rollover is as follows:
|k, number of winners||p(m,k)|
The pretax expectation value is 0.93.
There is still a small but shrinking chance of yet another rollover, but the most probable single outcome is a single winner, although a number of winners greater than one is actually a higher probability in sum.