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Rollover/Number of Winner Probabilities for a 600M annuity jackpot.

Topic closed. 3 replies. Last post 4 years ago by ressuccess.

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New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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Posted: May 17, 2013, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball now has an annuity jackpot of 600M, with a cash value of 377M, which suggests that the lottery expects to sell 457.4M dollars worth of tickets, with half that number being the actual tickets sold on this drawing.

The randomized Poisson probabilities for numbers of winners at this sales level, with 0 representing a rollover is as follows:

k,   number of winnersp(m,k)
027.11%
135.39%
223.09%
310.05%
43.28%
50.86%
60.19%
70.03%
80.01%

 The pretax expectation value is 0.93.

There is still a small but shrinking chance of yet another rollover, but the most probable single outcome is a single winner, although a number of winners greater than one is actually a higher probability in sum.

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    United States
    Member #135804
    November 29, 2012
    332 Posts
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    Posted: May 17, 2013, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

    Based on empirical data, your projected sales is off. $563,131,974 + $26,218,974 from Powerplay was the sales from the November drawing and that was less than this PB jackpot

    Mega in 2012 was $651,915,940 for their $600M+ drawing

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      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #21206
      September 4, 2005
      949 Posts
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      Posted: May 17, 2013, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

      Based on empirical data, your projected sales is off. $563,131,974 + $26,218,974 from Powerplay was the sales from the November drawing and that was less than this PB jackpot

      Mega in 2012 was $651,915,940 for their $600M+ drawing

      Powerplay does not enter into the jackpot calculation and is irrelevant to the Poisson calculation.

      The sales calculation is based on the advertised cash values of this, and the previous draw, and is obviously an approximation, since the lottery often underestimates the sales.

       

      Powerplay, which is always a bad bet when one measures the expectation value, applies to lower level prizes only, and does not affect the probability of winners of jackpot prizes..

        ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

        United States
        Member #93164
        June 23, 2010
        1424 Posts
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        Posted: May 23, 2013, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

        Someone in Florida won the Powerball Jackpot estimated at $590.5 million.